generated: 2022-04-22 19:00:04
All times in US Eastern Time

Program at a Glance

Thursday March 17, 2022

9:00 AM - 10:30 AM

11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

1:00 PM - 2:30 PM

3:00 PM - 4:30 PM

5:00 PM - 6:30 PM

8:00 PM - 9:30 PM

Friday March 18, 2022

9:00 AM - 10:30 AM

11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

1:00 PM - 2:30 PM

3:00 PM - 4:30 PM

5:00 PM - 6:30 PM

8:00 PM - 9:30 PM

Monday March 21, 2022

9:00 AM - 10:30 AM

11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

1:00 PM - 2:30 PM

3:00 PM - 4:30 PM

5:00 PM - 6:30 PM

8:00 PM - 9:30 PM

Tuesday March 22, 2022

9:00 AM - 10:30 AM

11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

1:00 PM - 2:30 PM

3:00 PM - 4:30 PM

5:00 PM - 6:30 PM

8:00 PM - 9:30 PM

SBCA Program

All times in US Eastern Time
1. Impacts of Large Changes in Factors of Production: USA, Africa, and Asia [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
Thursday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 1

Organizer: Jennifer Baxter, Industrial Economics, Inc.
Chair: Jennifer Baxter, Industrial Economics, Inc.
  • Use of CGE Modeling to Estimate Benefits of Investments in Water Security in Indonesia......Jennifer Morris, MIT; Sergey Paltsev, MIT; Brent Boehlert, Industrial Economics, Inc.; Kenneth Strzepek, MIT
  • Climate change will impact both water quantity and quality. While much work in coupled natural-human systems has focused on physical impacts, economic assessment of feedbacks of water-related threats to the economy has proved challenging. Here we propose an approach to incorporate water-related threats into economy-wide modeling to assess macroeconomic and sectoral impacts. We also assess the impacts of actions to mitigate the threats. We use Indonesia as an example to illustrate our approach, which can be applied to other regions and feedbacks. Indonesia faces a number of water-related threats that are expected to have potentially severe macroeconomic consequences if not addressed. These threats include inadequate water supply and sanitation (WASH) coverage, sea level rise and subsidence, flooding, insufficient water storage, peatland and lowland degradation, and groundwater over-extraction. A warming and more variable future climate will exacerbate all of these challenges through more severe droughts and floods, and sea level rise. We project that these compounding threats can have significant negative impacts on Indonesia`s GDP (up to a loss of over 7% by 2045). However, aggressive action to curtail these threats could cut these GDP impacts in half and build resilience in the process. We offer recommendations for development policies that can bring economy-wide benefits.
  • An Inclusive Wealth Framework in B/C Analysis: Examples from Asia, Africa, and USA......Kenneth Strzepek, MIT
  • Inclusive wealth theory suggests that to sustain intergenerational human well-being, a society must sustain its productive base -- the collection of its capital assets. The sum value of these capital assets, valued at social prices, is defined as the inclusive wealth of the society. Empirical work in wealth accounting has principally dealt with the assessment of past performance in various economies, by measuring changes to produced, natural, and human capital. To conduct policy evaluation however, whether in infrastructure or other sectors, we must estimate the impacts of policy interventions on the future trajectories of the capital stocks comprising wealth. Wealth-based policy evaluation is equivalent to carrying out a social cost-benefit analysis. In other words, if a policy were to increase the inclusive wealth of a society (valued at social prices), then the present discounted value of its social profits will be positive, making it acceptable. In order to use inclusive wealth for policy evaluation, we must estimate the impacts of a given policy on the trajectories of the capital stocks that comprise wealth. Infrastructure is an important policy domain because proposed changes to current systems affect many, if not all, capital stocks, which results in capital stock interactions and trade-offs. To illustrate how one might conduct wealth-based policy evaluation, we use two infrastructure case studies -- coal-fired power generation in China and the High Aswan Dam in Egypt. The case studies rely on integrated physical and economic models to quantify capital stock impacts of past infrastructure decisions. Such models can be used to evaluate prospective infrastructure systems as well, although doing so requires careful consideration of future uncertainty.
  • Estimating the Impact of Population Loss Resulting from a Large-Scale Natural Disaster......Jennifer Baxter, Industrial Economics, Inc.; Christine Lee, Industrial Economics, Inc.; Amy Lapin, Economic and Planning Systems, Inc.
  • The November 2018 Camp Fire was the deadliest wildfire in California's history, burning more than 150,000 acres, resulting in 86 fatalities and multiple injuries, and destroying nearly 19,000 physical structures in the Town of Paradise and the surrounding unincorporated communities. The fire has resulted in ongoing impacts to the regional economy, as the region experienced major population shifts, a substantial decline in its regional housing supply, and economic hardships for the business community. On behalf of a coalition of regional stakeholders, we attempted to estimate the short-term economic impact of the fire on regional output. Rather than relying simply on estimates of changes in expenditures during the initial recovery period, we developed a novel approach focused on the loss in human capital caused by significant out migration from the region to estimate the impact on gross regional product (GRP). We found that the short-term, positive gains in output associated with spending by recovery crews was likely offset by lost worker output, for a net negative effect on GRP in the tri-county region. Importantly, the short-term gains are temporary, while the negative effect of lost workers is likely to persist without new in-migration to the region.
  • Faaiqa Hartley, University of Cape Town;
  • 2. The value of road safety in Europe: New Evidence [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 2

    Organizer: Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics
    Chair: Susan Chilton, Newcastle University
    • Economic valuation of preventing fatal and serious road injuries: Results of a willingness-to-pay study in four European countries......Annelies Schoeters, Vias Institute; Maxime Large, Univ. Gustave Eiffel; Martin Koning, Univ. Gustave Eiffel; Laurent Carnis, Université Gustave Eiffel, Campus de Marne-la-Vallée; Stijn Daniels, Vias institute; Dominique Mignot, Université Gustave Eiffel, Campus de Lyon; Raschid Urmeew, Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt); Wim Wijnen, W2Economics; Frits Bijleveld, SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research; Martijn van der Horst, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
    • This paper presents the results of the VALOR research project in which the Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) to reduce the risk of fatal and serious injuries in road accidents has been estimated for Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. This study provides updated estimates of the VSL (Value of a Statistical ife) and the VSSI (Value of a Statistical Serious Injury) for each of the four participating countries. stated choice experiment was conducted to estimate the WTPs. Respondents were confronted with hpthetical route choices that differ in respect of travel costs, time, and crash risks. The survey was codcted between 22 October and 13 November 2020 and included 8,003 respondents from an nln panel. Within the full sample, 2,513 respondents (33.2%) were identified as lexicographic (lwy choosing the alternative with the best score on a particular attribute, to avoid complexity) and 4 rsondents who answered irrational. Both groups were excluded from the main analysis. ifeet econometric models were deployed and correspondingly several sets of estimated values eeprdced. The convergence of these values shows the robustness of the results. It was decided s a reference model the mixed logit with the panel dimension. The main results are as follows: t vraeVSL was estimated at 6.2 Mill EUR and the VSSI at 950,000 EUR. The VSL lies in the range een5. nd 7 Mill EUR (in France and Germany respectively) and the VSSI between 0.8 and 1.1 MlER Acrdingly, the ratio of values between fatalities and injuries is estimated at around 7 to 1. h xeimnal protocol appeared to be properly designed, and the reliability of results can be cnie, pricularly as a result of observations made while addressing hypothetical bias and eioahc eaviour. For instance, the exclusion of 1,900 respondents who did not consider the sre sg a ealistic did not significantly modify the final estimates. ates of VSL and VSSI can be used to update the socioeconomic costs of road crashes intefucutre and they can be included in national guidelines for conducting CBAs of transport proet.Mevr,te average values of the four countries together can be used for international urpsssca urpan or bilateral transport investments.
    • Understanding heterogeneity in values of statistical life: Observable, latent and hidden characteristics......Maxime Large, Univ. Gustave Eiffel; Annelies Schoeters, Vias Institute; Martin Koning, Univ. Gustave Eiffel; Laurent Carnis, Université Gustave Eiffel, Campus de Marne-la-Vallée; Stijn Daniels, Vias institute; Dominique Mignot, Université Gustave Eiffel, Campus de Lyon; Raschid Urmeew, Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt); Wim Wijnen, W2Economics; Frits Bijleveld, SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research; Martijn van der Horst, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
    • This paper presents the results of the VALOR research project in which the Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) to reduce the risk of fatal and serious injuries in road accidents has been estimated for Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. This study provides updated estimates of the VSL (Value of a Statistical ife) and the VSSI (Value of a Statistical Serious Injury) for each of the four participating countries. stated choice experiment was conducted to estimate the WTPs. Respondents were confronted with hpthetical route choices that differ in respect of travel costs, time, and crash risks. The survey was codcted between 22 October and 13 November 2020 and included 8,003 respondents from an nln panel. Within the full sample, 2,513 respondents (33.2%) were identified as lexicographic (lwy choosing the alternative with the best score on a particular attribute, to avoid complexity) and 4 rsondents who answered irrational. Both groups were excluded from the main analysis. ifeet econometric models were deployed and correspondingly several sets of estimated values eeprdced. The convergence of these values shows the robustness of the results. It was decided s a reference model the mixed logit with the panel dimension. The main results are as follows: t vraeVSL was estimated at 6.2 Mill EUR and the VSSI at 950,000 EUR. The VSL lies in the range een5. nd 7 Mill EUR (in France and Germany respectively) and the VSSI between 0.8 and 1.1 MlER Acrdingly, the ratio of values between fatalities and injuries is estimated at around 7 to 1. h xeimnal protocol appeared to be properly designed, and the reliability of results can be cnie, pricularly as a result of observations made while addressing hypothetical bias and eioahc eaviour. For instance, the exclusion of 1,900 respondents who did not consider the sre sg a ealistic did not significantly modify the final estimates. ates of VSL and VSSI can be used to update the socioeconomic costs of road crashes intefucutre and they can be included in national guidelines for conducting CBAs of transport proet.Mevr,te average values of the four countries together can be used for international urpsssca urpan or bilateral transport investments.
    • Does WTP for transport safety vary by mode?......Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics; Arne Risa Hole, University of Sheffield; Jan-Erik Swärdh, VTI
    • This paper presents the results of the VALOR research project in which the Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) to reduce the risk of fatal and serious injuries in road accidents has been estimated for Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. This study provides updated estimates of the VSL (Value of a Statistical ife) and the VSSI (Value of a Statistical Serious Injury) for each of the four participating countries. stated choice experiment was conducted to estimate the WTPs. Respondents were confronted with hpthetical route choices that differ in respect of travel costs, time, and crash risks. The survey was codcted between 22 October and 13 November 2020 and included 8,003 respondents from an nln panel. Within the full sample, 2,513 respondents (33.2%) were identified as lexicographic (lwy choosing the alternative with the best score on a particular attribute, to avoid complexity) and 4 rsondents who answered irrational. Both groups were excluded from the main analysis. ifeet econometric models were deployed and correspondingly several sets of estimated values eeprdced. The convergence of these values shows the robustness of the results. It was decided s a reference model the mixed logit with the panel dimension. The main results are as follows: t vraeVSL was estimated at 6.2 Mill EUR and the VSSI at 950,000 EUR. The VSL lies in the range een5. nd 7 Mill EUR (in France and Germany respectively) and the VSSI between 0.8 and 1.1 MlER Acrdingly, the ratio of values between fatalities and injuries is estimated at around 7 to 1. h xeimnal protocol appeared to be properly designed, and the reliability of results can be cnie, pricularly as a result of observations made while addressing hypothetical bias and eioahc eaviour. For instance, the exclusion of 1,900 respondents who did not consider the sre sg a ealistic did not significantly modify the final estimates. ates of VSL and VSSI can be used to update the socioeconomic costs of road crashes intefucutre and they can be included in national guidelines for conducting CBAs of transport proet.Mevr,te average values of the four countries together can be used for international urpsssca urpan or bilateral transport investments.
    3. Valuing Prevention of Foodborne Diseases [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 4

    Organizer: Sandra Hoffmann, USDA Economic Research Service
    Chair: Sandra Hoffmann, USDA Economic Research Service
    • The impact of climate change on vibriosis: projected health and economic impacts......Megan Sheahan, Industrial Economics, Inc.
    • Vibriosis is an illness contracted through foodborne and waterborne exposures to various Vibrio species that live in estuarine and marine environments. Increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) due to global climate change are expected to increase the prevalence of these bacteria, resulting in more vibriosis cases and greater health-related costs. This paper outlines an approach for mapping the statistical relationship between historical SSTs and vibriosis cases linked to non-V. cholerae exposure and then projecting future cases in response to warming coastal waters using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Relying on previous estimates of the cost-per-case of vibriosis, we estimate total annual medical costs, lost income from productivity loss, and mortality-related indirect costs throughout the United States. By the end of the 21st century, we find that future increases in SST will result than modeled cases for the baseline era (1995), under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The cost of these illnesses is expected to reach over $5.1 billion under RCP4.5 and $7.2 billion under RCP8.5, relative to $830 million in the baseline (2018 dollars). These costs are mostly attributable to deaths, which occur more frequently from exposure to V. vulnificus. We also provide suggestive evidence that increases in salinity, another environmental variable tied to both vibriosis and climate change, is likely to contribute to further increases in vibriosis cases for some regions of the United States
    • Economists and assessment of the international impacts of domestic food standards......Jason March, Food Standards Australia New Zealand
    • Food regulators are increasingly being challenged to think more about the international implications of food regulation. The purpose of this presentation is to explore the methodological questions and challenges for food regulators when doing this and ask what the role of economists could and should be. The meetingdata.presentations will cover: ‚Ä¢ the increased internationalisation and complexity of food supply chains and the rise of non-traditional supply chains that mean citizens can easily directly import food from businesses in other countries ‚Ä¢ The complexities of assessing what effect domestic food standards may have on export performance ‚Ä¢ What the potential benefits of regulatory alignment and co-operation may be and how they could be taken into account in cost benefit analysis ‚Ä¢ The sort of questions that economics (and the broader social sciences) can help answer that the traditional sciences cannot in terms of developing food standards domestically and potentially internationally. The presentation will draw upon the success of the joint Australian and New Zealand food regulatory systems and recent research on the potential impact of new horticultural food safety standards for berries, leafy vegetables and melons.
    • Estimating the Cost of Illness for Food Hypersensitivities in the UK......Nicholas Daniels, UK Food Standards Agency; Sofia Maartensz, Food Standards Agency
    • This paper estimates the societal burden of food hypersensitivities (FHS) in the UK. This includes the financial (direct and personal costs) as well as the non-financial (pain and grief) cost, differentiated for individuals suffering from food allergies, food intolerance, and coeliac disease.
    • Preliminary Estimates of the Current Costs of U.S. Foodborne Illness......Sandra Hoffmann, USDA Economic Research Service; Alice White, Colorado School of Public Health; R. Brett McQueen, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus; Jae-Wan Ahn, USDA Economic Research Service; Lauren Sandell, Colorado School of public Health; Elaine Walter, Colorado School of Public Health
    • This paper presents preliminary results on new estimates of the cost of foodborne illnesses in the United States. Prior estimates find the costs of 14 major foodborne illnesses in the U.S to be over $17 billion in 2019 dollars. Our current research develops new disease outcome modeling and new cost of illness estimates for 31 specific pathogens and unspecified illness in the U.S. We have placed a particular focus on estimation of the cost of complications and sequelae. While as with all health valuation designed for use in analysis of public programs, deaths account for over 2/3rds of the total cost, chronic outcomes and complications also play a significant role. For example, we find that sepsis, the most costly condition treated in U.S. hospitals, by itself accounts for $1 billion of the cost of these illnesses. Complications like sepsis are often underappreciated and underdiagnosed. We show how clinical definitions can be used to identify cases that are not explicitly identified through standard hospitalization charge coding. In the case of sepsis, explicitly coded sepsis accounts for roughly a quarter of the total cost of sepsis hospitalizations from foodborne infections.
    4. Student Papers -- Latin America Session A [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 5

    Organizer: Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo
    Chair: Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo
    • Impact of affectation variables in risks preferences during the covid-19 outbreak......Manuel Barrientos, Durham University
    • The SARS-CoV-2 virus began to spread through the planet in December 2019. This outbreak triggered the adoption of preventive measures such as social distance (Lahiri, Jha, et al. 2020), hand hygiene (Rundle, Presley, et al. 2020), usage of face masks (Li, Liu et al. 2020), and even the development and supply of vaccines around the world (Wang, Jing, et al. 2020). Commitment to these preventive measures and willingness to be vaccinated are two different mechanisms that individuals could use to reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality against covid-19. Moreover, governments or ONGs could promote different strategies to enhance the reduction of these risks. Individuals' engagement in reducing mortality risks strategies depends on sociodemographic, psychographic, behavioral variables, and personal experiences. This article mainly explores how the different affectation variables during the COVID-19 outbreak impact preferences for risks reductions program using a stated preference survey conducted in three Latin American countries. We believe that these preference drivers for risk reductions have not been studied enough in the past and are essential to promote more effective risk reductions policies
    • Monte Carlo comparison of market segmentation from mixed logit and latent class models: The role of heterogeneity and presence of niche segments......Nelyda Campos, Macquarie University, Australia
    • This study assesses the accuracy of the mixed logit model (MXL) and the latent class model (LCM) to identify market segments in two scenarios: high and low levels of preference heterogeneity among consumers with the presence or absence of niche segments. The LCM has probably been the most popular a posteriori segmentation technique for capturing heterogeneity in taste consumers in the literature during the last decades. This method has been used to identify both market segments and market share. In contrast, the MXL has rarely been used to identify market segments. Nevertheless, the literature is silent on the accuracy of the LCM in predicting market segments or under which circumstances this model is more appropriate. To answer these questions, we developed a Monte Carlo study to compare the LCM with the MXL. The individual-specific posterior distributions of the coefficients served to identify market segments for both models. The results show that the LCM is the best when preference heterogeneity is low and the number of market segments is correctly identified in the econometric estimation process. However, when there is a high heterogeneity level, the MXL outperforms the LCM. Moreover, in this scenario, the segmentation based on the individual-specific posterior distributions from an LCM is also better than that predicted by the original LCM. Thus, this study challenges the common practice for market segmentation and concludes that the selection between both models to uncover market segments is not trivial and is highly dependent on the level of preference heterogeneity among consumers.
    5. Roundtable Discussion: What is the role of CBA in multi-objective decision making across agencies/organizations? [Roundtable Discussion]
    Thursday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 3

    Organizer: Sarah Bishop, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    Chair: Ben Bryant, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    This session brings together representatives from three organizations that work internationally to better understand the process and criteria that they use to make investment decisions, including the role of CBA or other related analysis. The presentations and discussion will touch on the following: (1) How are criteria weighted or prioritized? How do these criteria interact with one another to reach investment decisions? (2) How have these criteria and their weighting/prioritization changed across time? What have been the main motivators of these changes? (3) Are there exceptions to the rules? How does the organization remain disciplined to follow the criteria, but flexible to allow for adjustments when justified? (4) Some of the criteria are likely qualitative while others are quantitative. How can they be placed on level playing field to inform decision making? [Keywords: Decision Making Criteria]
    6. Distribution and Disputation: Net Benefits, Equity, and the Place of Benefit-Cost Analysis in Public Decision Making [Plenary]
    Thursday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Glenn Blomquist, University of Kentucky
    Chair: Maureen Cropper, Resources for the Future
    Abstract: As its practitioners know well, benefit-cost analysis walks a fine line between the positive and normative, between the science of economics and the art of political economy. Missteps threaten to undermine its credibility as a value-free science, while overcaution risks irrelevance to the pressing questions of the day. As BCA adapts to give more weight to distributional concerns, while operating in a more highly charged political environment than ever before, these tensions will only grow. For perspective, I re-examine three prominent episodes in the history of economics where these issues were vigorously debated: (i) The founding of the NBER by Wesley Clair Mitchell, who insisted that the organization eschew all policy recommendations; (ii) the introduction of the modern definition of economics as study of tradeoffs by Lionel Robbins, who insisted welfare effects could never be aggregated; and (iii) the origins of benefit-cost analysis as a measure of income, which to first-generation practitioners seemed to foreclose the possibility of measuring "intangible" benefits like recreation opportunities, mortality risks, and equity. These episodes, together with critiques of economics from philosophers of science, suggest we are best served by being as transparent as possible about the ways values influence BCA reasoning, without arrogating political decisions into it.
  • Caroline Cecot, George Mason University;
  • 7. School Meals, Poverty Alleviation, Performing Arts, and Program Impacts [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Judy Temple, University of Minnesota
    • Understanding and Improving Policymakers' Sensitivity to Program Impact......Mattie Toma, Harvard University; Elizabeth Bell, Florida State University
    • Policymakers routinely make high-stakes decisions of which programs to fund. Assessing the value of a program is difficult and may be affected by bounded rationality. In an experiment with policymakers in the U.S. government, we find that respondents' valuations of programs are inelastic with respect to the program's impact. A complementary experiment among a representative sample of the general public reveals even more pronounced inelasticity in a population less familiar with making program funding decisions. We design and test two portable decision aids, one which presents two alternative programs side-by-side rather than in isolation and another which translates total program cost into an annual cost per person impacted. The decision aids increase elasticity by 0.20 on a base of 0.33 among policymakers and by 0.21 on a base of 0.21 among the general public. We provide evidence that cognitive noise -- noisy assessments of complex inputs -- is a mechanism that can help explain the observed inelasticity of program valuation with respect to impact.
    • How Much are Multisectoral Programs Worth? A New Method with an Application to School Meals......Elisabetta Aurino, university of barcelona; Harold Alderman, International Food Policy Research Institute; Aulo Gelli, International Food Policy Research Institute; Brad Wong, Copenhagen Consensus Center; Priscilla Twumasi Baffour, University of Ghana; Festus Turkson, University of Ghana
    • Social protection programs such as cash or food transfers support current poverty and inequality reduction goals, while at the same time enhance future productivity through human capital investments. Yet, the quantification of their overall productivity and equity benefits is challenging. We address this question utilizing a new methodology that quantifies productivity gains from learning as well as an approach for assessing social protection benefits. We do so by combining data on distributional benefits stemming from current poverty reduction in conjunction with future human capital gains in the context of a large-scale national school feeding program in Ghana. We develop a straightforward approach to map effect sizes from randomized controlled studies into broader economic analyses. In addition, we include the often recognized, but seldom quantified, distributional impacts of multi-sectoral investments. Our methodology is relevant to a broad range of social protection programs that have multidimensional benefits spanning both human capital improvements and equity gains.
    • The use of benefit transfer for performing arts: Evidence for validity and reliability......Bartosz Jusypenko, University of Warsaw
    • While benefit transfer is one of the basic nonmarket valuation tools and has been applied in various areas, its use in cultural economics has been scarce. Our thorough literature review suggests that out of identified five benefit transfer studies for cultural goods, none has considered the value of performing arts. With this paper, we aim to deliver the first benefit transfer for performing arts and examine the transfer validity and reliability. This way, the paper may help guide future use of the benefit transfer method in cultural economics. Empirical data for this study comes from a discrete choice experiment survey concerning residents` preferences towards extending the offer of public theaters within four types of performances: entertainment, drama, children`s and experimental. Based on results from MXLs, we investigate the performance of three different approaches in interregional benefit, using willingness-to-pay values estimated for six provinces of Poland. Our findings suggest that the choice of the benefit transfer technique may have significant implications for the transfer validity and reliability. Although our function transfer controls for factors commonly acknowledged and evidenced as important predictors of demand for cultural goods (i.e., geographical proximity to cultural goods and higher education), their use in the benefit transfer seems to lower the transfer accuracy in our case. Furthermore, our results indicate that the accuracy of benefit transfer in performing arts may significantly hinge on the performance type, with the more known types being related to higher validity and reliability. Overall, we observe that the employed measures of the benefit transfer performance, in particular, the TEs, do not diverge substantially from their counterparts reported in other areas, where the benefit transfer method is commonly applied, such as environmental and resource economics. We believe that this finding can support the use of benefit transfer in cultural economics.
    • Private funders, social impact, and the use of benefit-cost analysis for poverty alleviation......Judy Temple, University of Minnesota; Jose Diaz, Constellation Fund
    • Economic analysis can be used to identify social, health, or educational programs that provide the greatest impact per dollar spent. Increasingly, private investors and donors are engaging in partnerships with either government agencies or local nonprofit organizations to expand effective services based on predictions of benefits relative to costs. One approach involves social impact financing with pay-forsuccess contracts (e.g.,Nonprofit Finance Fund, 2019; Temple and Reynolds, 2015) whereby private investors agree to fund promising social services and expect to be paid back by local, state, or federal governments if the services delivered are deemed to be successful by external evaluators. This paper focuses on a different use of cost-benefit analysis involving partnerships between private donors and nonprofit service providers in which metrics for estimating return on investment are developed and employed to guide philanthropic giving. Popularized by the Robin Hood Foundation (Weinstein and Bradburd, 2013) and focused entirely on improving the wellbeing of individuals and families living in poverty, several philanthropic organizations around the U.S. have emerged in recent years to allocate private donations to local service providers through estimates of the benefits likely to be generated by the investment. This newer use of CBA in allows for the direct incorporation of equity concerns into CBA. The key distinction in how CBA is used in these three approaches to funding social services is the concept of standing. In societal CBA, obviously the benefits and costs experienced by society at large (within a specified jurisdiction) are used to compare alternative programs and identify promising uses of public dollars. For social impact financing through pay for success contracts (typically referred to as Pay for Success), the measured benefits consist primarily or entirely of the financial cost savings experienced by taxpayers. For CBA-motivated philanthropic grant making through organizations like the Robin Hood Foundation in New York City, Tipping Point in San Francisco, and the Constellation Fund in Minneapolis, the only benefits that matter are those accruing to individuals and families with incomes less than x of the poverty threshold. Non-poor beneficiaries have no standing. Our paper compares and contrasts these economic approaches to identifying cost-effective social programs and provides a number of key illustrative examples from early childhood, housing, and labor market policies. While clearly a key difference is the issue of standing, other differences include the role of evaluation. In explaining how philanthropies are employing CBA methods, we provide multiple examples from the publicly-available set of metrics used to predict spending impacts on the wellbeing of residents living in poverty. Challenges in assessing the likely effectiveness of the service provider and the relevancy of employing effectiveness estimates from national studies for use in local grant making are examined.
    8. Preliminary Results from a Multi-country Survey of Households’ Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors Regarding the COVID-19 epidemic and COVID-19 vaccines [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 4

    Organizer: Richard Carson, University of California, San Diego
    Chair: Richard Carson, University of California, San Diego
    9. Distribution and Equity [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 5

    Chair: Maddalena Ferranna, Harvard University
    • Evaluative reasoning: window to a wider view of benefits, costs and equity......Julian King, Julian King & Associates; Alex Hurrell, Oxford Policy Management
    • This presentation provides an overview of a new approach to assessing value for money, that combines benefit-cost analysis with theory and practice from program evaluation. The approach addresses the gap of an overall framing for combining technocratic and democratic approaches to decision-making. The approach is now being used globally. In addition to setting out the approach, the presentation will cover examples and practical lessons. Some economists have argued that insights from benefit-cost analysis should be combined with messier aspects of democratic decision-making (Flyvbjerg and Bester, 2021; Kahneman, 2012). Similarly, Adler & Posner (2006) acknowledged that benefit-cost analysis is "not a superprocedure" (p. 157) and argued that an overarching approach is needed that can incorporate wider considerations, but conceded, "We suppose that is a theoretical possibility - but we have absolutely no idea what the superprocedure would consist in" (p. 158). To address this gap, an approach was developed through doctoral research (King, 2017; 2019; King & OPM, 2018). The approach is inter-disciplinary (combining theory and practice from economics and program evaluation), accommodates mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative), is participatory (involving stakeholders and end-users in co-design and making sense of the evidence), and is underpinned by the General Logic of Evaluation (Scriven, 1980) - i.e., it hinges on the use of defined criteria (aspects of performance) and standards (levels of performance) as the means to make robust judgements from evidence, using a logical and traceable process. In this presentation, we will share an overview of the approach, including examples from international development and practical lessons from the field including the advantages and insights that come from using this approach, as well as challenges and limitations.
    • Distributional policy impacts, willingness to pay versus accept, and the Kaldor-Hicks tests in benefit-cost analysis......Zachary Brown, North Carolina State University
    • I examine how inequality in the distribution of income and a quasi-fixed good (e.g. environmental quality or health) can affect the disparity between aggregate willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) for policies that induce joint, nonmarginal and heterogeneous changes to income and the quasi-fixed good. These disparities can generate divergent conclusions from benefit-cost analysis (BCA). In the case of Cobb-Douglas preferences, I show that greater inequality in policy impacts to the quasi-fixed good generally increases the range of conflicting conclusions from BCA using the Kaldor criterion (compensating variation) versus the Hicks criterion (equivalent variation). In two intuitive examples, I show that for any set of impacts to the quasi-fixed good there exists a degree of inequality in which the Kaldor-Hicks tests disagree. This disagreement arises because, with inequality, seemingly marginal policy changes can become nonmarginal when increasingly concentrated among marginalized or privileged groups in society, leading to a widening gap in aggregate WTP versus WTA. Extending the analysis to general CES preferences, I find that when the goods are complements, these same forces can render the Kaldor-Hicks tests inoperable (e.g. when the goods are distributed lognormally). When the goods are substitutes, attenuation of WTP by individuals' budget constraints can also push the Kaldor-Hicks tests in opposing directions. I conclude that greater inequality can increase the relevance of questioning whether to elicit WTP or WTA in nonmarket valuation for BCA.
    • Benefit-Cost Analysis and Consideration of Distributional Effects and Social Equity......Nanette Nelson, University of Montana; Andrea Bohmholdt, MITRE
    • Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has become a standard practice for evaluating public investments and regulatory decisions since the 1936 Flood Control Act. However, making BCA the ultimate criterion for government decision-making raises concerns over the limitations and inherit biases within BCA. By aggregating the benefits and costs of a government action, BCA can obscure who <<wins<< and who <<loses<<. Recent executive orders stress the importance of addressing social equity and environmental and economic justice for underserved communities. Understanding how the costs and benefits are distributed is imperative to interpreting the impacts of a government action upon vulnerable populations. Although OMB requires an analysis of distributional effects, this is rarely performed in practice. Our study focused on current practices used in evaluating distributional effects and addressing social equity. We found there is a lack of federal guidance and approved methodologies available. The continuation of the study includes the development of a stepby-step methodology for identifying distributive effects that is scaled from simple to more comprehensive and complex, depending on the government action. A comprehensive approach would be appropriate for widespread federal regulatory policies, whereas simplified methodology may be more appropriate for smaller scale government actions, at the state or local level. Although not comprehensive, this approach would move the needle towards the consideration of social equity instead of omitting it completely. Further, the BCA framework needs to be expanded to address social equity both within BCA and throughout the planning process. The use of indicators, weights and indexes could be determined through the elicitation of expert opinion and stakeholder engagement with a neutral third-party as the lead organization. MITRE intends to test the new methodology with government agencies using proposed government actions that are currently under consideration or after a government action has been implemented to understand whether the intended outcomes materialized.
    • Use of Distribution Weights in Benefit-Cost Analysis Revisited......Robert Brent, Fordham University
    • It is now nearly 40 years since the paper : <<Use of Distributional Weights in Cost-BenefitAnalysis: A Survey of Schools<< was first published, Brent (1984). This paper went back to first principles of what distributional weights are trying to achieve and attempted to dispel misconceptions concerning distributional weights in the literature. Recently there have been some contributions by Adler (2015) and Hammitt (2021) that reaffirmed the need to use distributional weights in Benefit-Cost Analysis. Hammitt, in particular, has provided the basis of an additional argument for adopting distributional weights when income is the numeraire. Nonetheless, there still exists a widespread reluctance to actually use income distributional weights in BCA practice in the US. Since the 2022 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Annual Conference central theme is devoted to <<Analyzing Distributional Consequences and Equity in Benefit-Cost Analysis<<, it is timely to revisit the issue by focusing on the key reason why distributional weights are so necessary, which is the recognition of the existence of the interdependence of individual utility functions.
    10. What VSL should we use? Options for developing national and global defaults [Innovative Session]
    Thursday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Lisa Robinson, Harvard University
    Chair: Lisa Robinson, Harvard University
    The value of small changes in mortality risks, conventionally referred to the value per statistical life (VSL), is an important parameter in benefit-cost analysis. It frequently accounts for the majority of quantified benefits. As a result, government agencies and other organizations often recommend defaults for application in their analyses. In addition to these country-level defaults, many researchers are interested in estimating global policy impacts and hence require an approach for estimating VSL internationally. In some countries, such as the United States, the VSL literature is extensive. In others, this literature is limited or nonexistent. This means that, in some contexts, the primary challenge is how to select, evaluate, and combine the available estimates. In other contexts, the primary challenge is how to best extrapolate from the available literature, including studies conducted in other countries. This panel brings together leading VSL experts to provide advice on how to best address these questions. They will address (1) criteria for evaluating the quality and suitability of individual studies, including best practice recommendations for stated and revealed preference studies; (2) approaches for synthesizing estimates across studies, including qualitative systematic review, meta-analysis, and expert elicitation; and (3) extrapolating values across countries, including options for adjusting for income and other differences. After a brief introduction and overview of current practices, each speaker will address one or more of these methods or approaches. They will describe the approach, discuss its advantages and limitations, identify key references, and highlight priorities for future work. The presentations will be followed by discussion with the audience.
    11. Meet the Funders [Roundtable Discussion]
    Thursday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 3

    Organizer: Craig Thornton, Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis
    Chair: Craig Thornton, Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis
    Learn more about several major foundations that fund public policy research and related work. - What are the issues on which they are most likely to focus? - What have they recently funded that will be of interest to benefit-cost analysts? - What are the procedures for getting a proposal considered? How are proposals evaluated? This panel of program officers from leading foundations will answer conference participants’ questions, sharing tips and insights on these topics and more. KEYWORDS: funding; foundations
    12. Developing New Tools and Data for EJ Analysis [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Ann Wolverton, US Environmental Protection Agency
    Chair: Ann Wolverton, US Environmental Protection Agency
    • Advances in Data Science: Near-Term Applications for Equity and Economics......Jared Creason, US Environmental Protection Agency; Jim McFarland, US Environmental Protection Agency; Jefferson Cole, US Environmental Protection Agency; Morgan Browning, US Environmental Protection Agency; Eric Smith, US Environmental Protection Agency; Dashiell Yeatts-Lonske, University of Maryland
    • Environmental Justice and Drinking Water Quality......Wes Austin, US Environmental Protection Agency; Emma Hopkins, US Environmental Protection Agency; Will Wheeler, US Environmental Protection Agency; Andrew Schulman, US Environmental Protection Agency; Nicholas Spalt, US Environmental Protection Agency
    • Drinking water quality is an under-studied component of environmental justice analysis because geographic information of populations served by municipal water systems is limited and imprecise in federal data systems. We present two EPA data targeting initiatives that harness the best available information at federal and local levels on water system service boundaries, and we complement these initiatives with new tools to join population characteristics and vulnerability indicators to drinking water quality. The purpose of these data initiatives is to better characterize cumulative risk and disparities in environmental hazards for public drinking water systems. We conclude with several examples of how these tools can be leveraged for environmental justice analysis of drinking water quality at a national scale.
    • Absolute and relative indicators of risk to evaluate potential EJ concerns......Ann Wolverton, US Environmental Protection Agency; Andrew Schreiber, US Environmental Protection Agency; Wes Austin, US Environmental Protection Agency; Alex Marten, US Environmental Protection Agency
    • In the project, we examine ways to combine absolute and relative indicators of risk to identify and rank jurisdictions based on disparities in exposure to prominent environmental stressors on the basis of race, ethnicity or income. We also discuss the potential pitfalls of combining information across multiple environmental indicators when a given percentage change does not represent the same change in risk. Finally, we explore how this approach compares to other prominent approaches to rank ordering geographic areas, including EJSCREEN and CalEnviroScreen.
    • Environmental Justice Implications of Measuring Fine Particulate Concentrations......Andrew Schreiber, US Environmental Protection Agency; Will Wheeler, US Environmental Protection Agency; Tammy Tan, US Environmental Protection Agency
    • Fine particulate matter contributes to enormous health issues in the United States. Traditionally, understanding the extent of PM2.5 exposures has been approximated by either in-situ air monitors sited to enforce NAAQS standards, large scale chemical transport models, or a combination of the two. In this work, we explore how these traditional metrics for PM2.5 compare with recent advances in the literature that estimate exposures using remote sensing information. We document the heterogeneity in exposures across data sources, particularly in urban areas, by constructing population weighted exposure estimates across the contiguous United States. The calculation illustrates uncertainty involved in identifying relatively polluted environmental justice communities on the basis of PM2.5.
    13. Conceptual Issues in Benefit-Cost Analysis [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Nicolas Treich, TSE
    • The Historical Evolution of Economic Evaluation......Don Pickrell, Volpe Center, U.S. Dept. of Transportation
    • Economic evaluation of proposed investments in new or expanded public infrastructure is relatively recent, but like much of modern economic analysis it has distant intellectual roots and evolved haltingly into today`s formalized and complex practice. Benefit-cost analysis is now widely employed to evaluate government regulations and service delivery programs, but its origins lie in the evaluation of investments in public infrastructure. This presentation will trace the evolution of economic evaluation, beginning with Dupuit and Marshall`s development of methods for measuring benefits to infrastructure users from new or expanded public facilities. It will focus on how the theoretical underpinnings for identify benefits to infrastructure users developed in parallel with empirical methods and data sources for measuring them, highlighting instances where benefit-cost practice outpaced its intellectual foundations and prompted the rapid developments necessary for underlying theory to <<catch up<< to professional practice. The presentation will also document the gradual expansion of the range of benefits included in economic evaluation from its original narrow focus on cost savings to infrastructure users to include the value of non-marketed resources and services, improved public health and safety, more reliable delivery of infrastructure services, and reductions in economic and environmental externalities. In parallel, it will trace the globalization and increasing formalization of benefit-cost practice, including its widespread adoption by central governments and international aid agencies and their publication of rigorous guidance for its use. Finally, it will survey current controversies, including confusion with localized economic impact analysis, the continuing debate over proper approaches for discounting future benefits and costs, the potential significance of benefits that conventional measurement methods can overlook, the empirical viability of non-market methods for measuring benefits, and the challenge to its theoretical foundations posed by behavioral economics. The presentation will conclude by assessing the current influence of economic evaluation on infrastructure investment decisions by government agencies.
    • Cost-Benefit Analysis: Then and Now......Peter Abelson, Applied Economics
    • This paper provides a brief history of the principles and practice of cost-benefit analysis and describes what has been constant and what has changed. The paper describes the effective birth of cost-benefit analysis in the 1960s and early 1970s. From the start, the overriding aim was to determine the efficiency of projects drawing on Kaldor-Hicks compensation principles (not on actual distribution outcomes). In the early years, much emphasis was put on responding to market failures, including high indirect taxes, import quotas and tariffs, and fixed exchange rates. A major focus was on estimating <<shadow prices<< known as true values. There was more use of the internal rate of return. Recreational and life values were acknowledged but not initially valued. Gradually, the subject matter became more sophisticated, with the Hicksian concepts of value. Forecasting and valuation, including well-being, environmental and non-use values, became more sophisticated. More attention was paid to the treatment of risk. And applications have widened greatly to include social programs, recurrent programs and regulations. But there remain many contentious issues including (among others) the valuation of losses, the social discount rate, changes in real values over time, frequent claims for new forms of benefits, and chronic optimism bias.
    • Developing satellite accounts for incorporating inequality into natural capital accounting......Marije Schaafsma, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Silvia Ferrini, University of East Anglia; Gaetano Grilli, University of East Anglia; Kerry Turner, University of East Anglia
    • The premise of this paper is that natural capital accounting (NCA) should support decisionmaking to reduce poverty and inequality, or at least provide insight into the impacts of natural capital management on different socio-economic groups. In this paper, we firstly provide a range of arguments to support this premise, related to the relationships between natural capital and poverty and inequality, including limited policy inputs as well as causality in terms of outcomes, feedbacks, and policy goals. Next, we examine where current NCA standards as approved under the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Ecosystem Accounting Framework fail to address these relationships, for example through which value types and valuation methods are approved. We then provide a set of consideration and potential solutions to modify or extend current NCA practices. These solutions build on the use of so-called satellite accounts, which allow for other concepts, additional analyses and alternative measurements. We discuss how in such satellite accounts, the impacts of natural capital management on inequality can be included, supply and use tables can be extended to show how different socio-economic groups affect and benefit from natural capital, the inclusion of values that matter in particular to marginalised social groups, and the use of alternative wellbeing indices to value natural capital. For each of these options, we explore data requirements and conceptual considerations. We illustrate these solutions with both fictional/simulated and real examples, building on case studies in Italy and Grenada.
    • The Dasgupta Review and the problem of anthropocentrism......Nicolas Treich, TSE
    • As is customary in economics, the Dasgupta Review on the economics of biodiversity adopts an anthropocentric approach: that is, among the millions of species on Earth, the Review accords a moral value to only one species; ours. Building on the literature in ethics, I explain why it is morally problematic to assume that other species ‚Äì at least, sentient animals ‚Äì only have an instrumental value for humans. The Review defends its approach, but I advance counter arguments. I highlight that preserving the diversity of life in ecosystems is not the same as taking care of the wellbeing of sentient species living in those ecosystems. Some biodiversity policies, such as protecting the blue whale or reducing meat consumption, largely satisfy both anthropocentric and non-anthropocentric objectives. Other policies, such as the reintroduction of wolves or the eradication of invasive species, induce conflicts between these objectives. I discuss why the anthropocentric view remains prevalent in the research on biodiversity and present some potential non-anthropocentric research directions. JEL codes: Q51, Q20, Q18, I30, Z00 Keywords: Biodiversity, environmental economics, anthropocentrism, animal welfare, sentience, conservation.
    14. Equity and Benefit-Cost Analysis [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 3

    Chair: David Greenberg, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
    • To Whomsoever They May Accrue: The Importance of Inclusion, Equity, and Justice in Public Benefit Cost Analysis......Julie Suhr Pierce, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
    • Beginning in the Depression Era with the Flood Control Act of 1936, the federal government developed and implemented a series of principles, guidelines, and processes for evaluating the net benefits of federally-funded water resource projects. The Act introduced the idea that a proposed project would be considered worthwhile if the benefits, <<to whomsoever they may accrue,<< were greater than the projected costs of completing the project. But in practice, <<who<<‚Äîwhat populations‚Äîwere included in the <<whom<<? Over time, researchers and practitioners refined the original principles and definitions laid out in the Act, and the methodologies developed earlier in time were standardized and codified within various policies. In 1969 and 1970, a special task force evaluating these policies proposed that water resource projects should achieve four objectives: national economic development, environmental quality, regional development, and social well-being. In its final form, however, the report that emerged from the task force`s efforts retained only two of the objectives: national economic development and environmental quality, as set forth in The Principles, Requirements and Guidelines for Water and Land Related Resources Implementation Studies (PR&G), released in 1983. In 2007, Congress directed the Army Corps of Engineers to revise PR&G to take into consideration a fuller range of long-term economic benefits, expanded in 2013 to include social and ecosystem values. In this presentation, I will explore how water project analyses regarded disadvantaged communities over the years and will lead a discussion on the importance of inclusion, equity, and justice‚Äîadequately taking into consideration the interests of low-income, minority, and Native American communities‚Äîand on incorporating Environmental Justice into the process as analysts choose the <<who<< of the <<whom<< when calculating net economic benefits.
    • Towards principles and practices for distributional weighting......Daniel Acland, University of California at Berkeley; David Greenberg, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
    • Distributional weighting has been proposed (and, to a limited extent, implemented) as a way to incorporate distributional concerns into BCA. In light of the increased interest in addressing distributional concerns in RIA (e.g. the recent Biden memorandum), some disentangling and understanding of concepts seems in order. Most importantly, there is a distinction between applying weights to overcome the fact that a dollar is worth more to a poor person than to a wealthy person, and applying weights to address the possibility that we might have greater concern for the welfare of the poor than that of the wealthy. The former is not a distributional concern. It is simply an attempt to correct a fundamental source of bias in willingness to pay as a measure of welfare, caused by diminishing marginal utility of wealth. It does not involve any values judgments. As such, we propose that it is appropriate for analysts to be in the business of determining and applying what are sometimes referred to as <<efficiency weights.<< We briefly review the existing methodologies. Meanwhile, applying weights to address true distributional concerns inevitably involves a values judgment: how much more should the welfare of the poor <<matter<< to society than the welfare of the wealthy? As such, we propose that the determination of true distributional weights be taken out of the hands of analysts. We consider three approaches to putting the values judgment into the hands of decision makers. First, compute the breakeven distributional weight on the welfare of the poor and let decision makers make an intuitive determination of whether the appropriate weight is be above or below that threshold. Second, assign responsibility for determining a universally applied set of weights to some agency with decision making authority, for example, OMB. Third, use contingent valuation to obtain distributional weights from the general public, the putative ultimate decision makers in a democracy. For reasons suggested in the paper, we are skeptical of the third approach. Finally, we compare our approach to Social Welfare Measurement, and conclude that our approach is more straightforward, informative, and practicable.
    • Distributional Consequences and Regulatory Analysis......Richard Revesz, NYU Law School; Samantha Yi, NYU Law School
    • DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES AND REGULATORY ANALYSIS Richard L. Revesz and Samantha P. Yi Distributional analysis has been a formal part of the regulatory state since 1993, when President Clinton directed agencies to consider the distributional consequences of significant regulations alongside the cost-benefit analysis of these regulations. President Obama reaffirmed and somewhat expanded this commitment. And both Presidents Clinton and Obama expressed particular concerns with distributional consequences in the environmental area, underscoring their respective commitments to environmental justice. Despite the undoubtedly good intentions embodied in these pronouncements, the analysis of the distributional consequences of regulation has never gotten off the ground. Unlike cost-benefit analysis, it has not become a meaningful part of the analysis of regulatory consequences. In his first day in office, President Biden issued a Presidential Memorandum on Modernizing Regulatory Review, which calls on the Office of Management and Budget to propose procedures for analyzing the distributional consequences of regulations. This Article focuses on what it would take for the Biden effort to succeed where the Clinton and Obama efforts failed. In particular, agencies will need to be provided with clear guidance on the methodologies used to conduct distributional analysis. The lack of a standardized approach is part of the reason that the prior efforts were doomed. Moreover, agencies will need to take seriously the already existing requirement, so far honored only in the breach, of analyzing the distributional consequences of different regulatory alternatives. Otherwise, they will never be in a position to answer the key question in this area: when are the better distributional consequences of one alternative sufficient to overcome another alternative`s higher net benefits?
    • Efficiency and Equity in Regulation......Caroline Cecot, George Mason University
    • The Biden Administration has signaled an interest in conducting distributional analysis to ensure that regulations appropriately benefit vulnerable and disadvantaged communities. Critics of the current process of regulatory review, who believe the focus on cost-benefit analysis interferes with using regulatory initiatives to address inequities, have celebrated the initiative, while supporters of the current process are concerned that prioritizing equity will come at significant cost to efficiency. That framework‚Äîefficiency v. equity/CBA v. distributional analysis‚Äîis misguided and counterproductive in many cases. First, agency practice is often far from efficient. Second, there are opportunities to improve both efficiency and equity. Third, ignoring efficiency could lead to inefficient and inequitable outcomes. And fourth, incorporating efficiency-promoting economic tools could help achieve more equitable outcomes. This Article offers a more productive framework for thinking about efficiency and equity.
    15. Covid-19 and Public Health [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 4

    Organizer: Ryan Sullivan, Naval Postgraduate School
    Chair: Linda Thunstrom, University of Wyoming
    • HOW DO PEOPLE VALUE COVID-19 RISKS? EVIDENCE FROM CONTINGENT VALUATION EXPERIMENTS......Ryan Sullivan, Naval Postgraduate School; Patrick Carlin, Indiana University; Kosali Simon, Indiana University; Coady Wing, Indiana University
    • In this paper, we report the results from a series of contingent valuation experiments conducted on Microsoft banner ads at the beginning of the Covid-19 vaccine roll out. The main feature of the experiments asked participants how much they would be willing to pay to expedite being vaccinated by a period of four months. Data collected during the time period of our study indicates being vaccinated four months early would have lowered Covid-19 mortality risk by roughly 23 per 100,000 people. Despite the mortality risk reduction provided by the vaccines, more than half (58%) of the participants said they were not willing to pay $50 (the lowest amount offered in the experiments) to be vaccinated early. This indicates an implied value per statistical life estimate of less than $220,000 for the majority of the participants. As a comparison, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recommends using a value of $11.4 million per statistical life for cost-benefit analyses. The results provide very suggestive evidence that the mortality risk reduction provided by the Covid-19 vaccines was substantially undervalued by a majority of the American public by a factor of about 50 during the early stages of the vaccine roll out.
    • Unexpected effects of national social insurance on support for county-level public health policies......Joe Mitchell-Nelson, University of Oregon; Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon
    • In the U.S., the generosity of supplementary federal unemployment insurance (UI) was a controversial issue throughout the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic. The debate focused mostly on worries about economic disincentives for workers. However, federal UI may also have undermined support for local-level pandemic mitigation strategies. We quantify the effect of federal UI on the trade-offs that individuals are willing to make with respect to county-level pandemic policies. We use choice experiments from an online survey, and both model, and correct for, systematic response/non-response propensities. When respondents are asked to assume that federal UI will be zero, they tend to be averse to losses in average household income but favorably disposed toward increased unemployment. With positive federal UI payments, however, respondents become more willing to accept losses in average household income but view increased unemployment less favorably. The reversal with respect to losses in average household income is driven by younger, white, non-college and lower-income respondents. The reversal with respect to unemployment is driven by middle-aged and conservative respondents. Our findings demonstrate policy-relevant heterogeneity in support for county-level health policies as a function of national-level social safety net policy.
    • Priority Queues: Determining the Public’s Preferences for Initial Allocation of the COVID-19 Vaccine......Richard Carson, University of California, San Diego; Michael Hanemann, University of California, Berkeley; Jordan Louviere, University of South Australia; Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • : In this paper, we report the results from a series of contingent valuation experiments conducted on Microsoft banner ads at the beginning of the Covid-19 vaccine roll out. The main feature of the experiments asked participants how much they would be willing to pay to expedite being vaccinated by a period of four months. Data collected during the time period of our study indicates being vaccinated four months early would have lowered Covid-19 mortality risk by roughly 23 per 100,000 people. Despite the mortality risk reduction provided by the vaccines, more than half (58%) of the participants said they were not willing to pay $50 (the lowest amount offered in the experiments) to be vaccinated early. This indicates an implied value per statistical life estimate of less than $220,000 for the majority of the participants. As a comparison, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recommends using a value of $11.4 million per statistical life for cost-benefit analyses. The results provide very suggestive evidence that the mortality risk reduction provided by the Covid-19 vaccines was substantially undervalued by a majority of the American public by a factor of about 50 during the early stages of the vaccine roll out.
    • Willingness to Bear the Costs of Preventative Public Health Measures......Shan Zhang, University of Oregon; Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon
    • In the U.S., the generosity of supplementary federal unemployment insurance (UI) was a controversial issue throughout the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic. The debate focused mostly on worries about economic disincentives for workers. However, federal UI may also have undermined support for local-level pandemic mitigation strategies. We quantify the effect of federal UI on the tradeoffs that individuals are willing to make with respect to county-level pandemic policies. We use choice experiments from an online survey, and both model, and correct for, systematic response/non-response propensities. When respondents are asked to assume that federal UI will be zero, they tend to be averse to losses in average household income but favorably disposed toward increased unemployment. With positive federal UI payments, however, respondents become more willing to accept losses in average household income but view increased unemployment less favorably. The reversal with respect to losses in average household income is driven by younger, white, non-college and lower-income respondents. The reversal with respect to unemployment is driven by middle-aged and conservative respondents. Our findings demonstrate policy-relevant heterogeneity in support for county-level health policies as a function of national-level social safety net policy.
    16. Climate Change Topics: Preferences and Decision Making [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 5

    Chair: Joe Devlin, Environment Canada
    • Public preferences for a state-level cap-and-trade program......Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon; Garrett Stanford, university of oregon
    • Our estimates confirm that these state-level preferences are strongly heterogeneous with respect to political ideologies and opinions about climate change. Importantly, our models allow us to calculate the implied social benefits of carbon emissions reductions based on the estimated marginal illingness to pay for carbon emissions reductions. Our <<SBC<< measure complements existing measures o climate mitigationbenefits based on the social cost of carbon (the SCC, which is an avoided-cost measure, as opposed to a willingness-to-pay measure). Willingness to bear the household costs of a cap-and-trade program is affected by the extent of carbon emissions reductions the program would provide, but also by the changes in the number of jobs in carbon intensive nustries and in <<green<< industries in the respondent`s county. We estimate the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between <<carbon<< jobs and <<green<< jobs for different preference classes. There is heterogeneity in the extent to which the share of permits auctioned, or the uses of auction revenue, affect demand, and evidence of the extent to which people would prefer a program that includes additional regulations to limit co-pollutant emissions by firms that buy carbon permits to cover increased carbon emissions.
    • Estimating inequality aversion in the climate change context at national and global scale......Milan Ščasný, Charles University; Iva Zverinova, Charles University; Vojtech Maca, Charles University; Matěj Opatrný, Charles University
    • Inequality aversion is the key parameter of BCA that relies on Social Welfare Function‚Äî which is a typical approach for the welfare assessment based on Integrated Assessment Models like DICE, FUND, PAGE or WITCH. Within this concept, welfare represents a weighted sum of utility that considers distribution over different dimensions, including intergenerational equity, risk aversion (uncertainty) and, finally, intra-generation equity, i.e. inequality aversion (see, Berger and & Emmerling, 2020). Our research design to elicit preferences of individuals for income inequality aversion is motivated by previous research by Atkinson et al. (2009), Pirttila & Uusitalo (2010) Carlsson et al. (2005) and Hurley et al. (2020). In our experiment, we ask people to choose (three times) between two income distributions, described in terms of maximum, average, and minimum income when both graphical remeetingdata.presentations and absolute levels are used to describe both income profiles. Our experiment is context-specific‚Äîour respondents choose between two policies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change that will influence the level and the distribution of income among people. Our research design explores several methodological issues. Using split-sample treatments, we elicit preferences (1) when income inequality is relevant on a national scale or on the global scale; (2) when the starting point of the implicit value of the inequality aversion in the gamble varies; (3) when the implicit coefficient of variation is reduced by 50% or by 33%; and, (4) when the underlying distribution of the initial income distribution on the global scale is symmetric or asymmetric. The data analysed in this paper come from an online questionnaire survey conducted in Austria, the Czech Republic, Spain, and the United Kingdom in the summer of 2021. After excluding <<speeders<<, our final dataset consists of 6,864 valid observations. We find that the parameter of inequality aversion is 0.60 for income distribution at the national scale and 0.51 for the inequality at the global scale (pooled data). People in Austria, Spain and the United Kingdom are more averse at the national scale, while the Czechs are equally averse regardless of which scale inequality is concerned. Older people, people with higher education and with lower incomes are more averse. The research design we used is neutral when the preferences of the individuals for inequality aversion is examined.
    • Expected Cost Savings of Early Adoption of Conservation Strategies in the US: A Decision-Making Analysis......Mazbahul Ahamad, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
    • Background: Invasive woody tree (e.g., red cedar) encroachment is a major conservation and management concern in the United States (US). Early adoption of conservation strategies, such as brush management, mulching, and prescribed burning, is critical to the proactive decision-making process to prevent the increasing woody encroachment trend. In this study, we estimated and compared expected management cost savings based on early adoption of conservation strategies. Materials and Methods: We compared the cost of conservation strategies under three alternative management scenarios for early adoption of conservation management using a decision tree model. To determine expected cost savings, annual tree cover (%) and management cost data were used from 30 randomly selected wildfire sites in Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Multilevel logistic regression models with random intercept at the state level were estimated to determine the association between tree cover gap (difference of reference and comparison years) and expected cost savings with interstate variability. Results: In general, the expected costs of mulching, brush management, and prescribed fire were $313, $173, and $23 per acre, respectively, in six US states. Additionally, management costs vary at the state level. Decision tree analysis found that <<adopting conservation strategies early<< can result in higher management cost savings than <<doing nothing<< for recovering woody encroached rangelands and grasslands if the tree cover gap between reference and comparison year is positive. We also found a positive association between the tree cover gap and expected cost savings and inter-state variability from three multi-level mixed-effect regressions for three management scenarios. Conclusions: Proactive conservation strategies, such as early adoption, can decrease expected management costs for recovering woody encroached rangeland and grasslands in the US. These findings have policy implications for short-term invasive tree reduction plans at the state and local levels.
    • Different Methods, Different Values: Implications of Alternative Valuation Methods for Environmental Policy Analysis......Bonnie Keeler, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota
    • Efficient environmental policies aim to maximize benefits while minimizing costs, enabling managers to prioritize limited resources among competing objectives. For water quality policies, benefits include safe recreation, enhanced property values, reduced risk of disease, and improved aesthetic quality. As most of these benefits are not traded in markets, economists use non-market valuation techniques to quantify these benefits, often through tools that approximate market conditions and observe how individuals make choices about the allocation of scarce resources. Other social scientists are also interested in characterizing the impacts of alternative environmental policies on human values. Research in deliberative or participatory valuation, spatially-explicit ecosystem services metrics, along with human dimensions studies employing surveys, focus groups, or interviews all shed light on the potential benefits of environmental protection. However, there are few studies that compare non-market valuation approaches with other value elicitation techniques used by fellow social scientists. As a result, there is little consensus on the impact of alternative value elicitation methods on policy recommendations and benefit-cost analysis. To address this gap, I synthesize the results of over a decade of water quality valuation work in the U.S. state of Minnesota, including stated preference surveys, hedonic analyses, avoided cost approaches, and travel cost models. We compare these studies with results from <<alternative<< valuation methods based on ecosystem service metrics, surveys, semi-structured interviews, and Q methodology. Compared to traditional econometric approaches, insights from <<alternative<< valuation methodologies lead to a different prioritization of water quality objectives. When respondents engaged in participatory and deliberative value exercises, I observed a trend towards the prioritization of more biospheric and altruistic water values, whereas egoistical and hedonic values were prioritized in the traditional non-market methods. Different methodologies privileged values of certain subpopulations, with traditional econometrics methods reflecting the preferences of predominantly wealthier and whiter residents. I identify where policy recommendations derived from the preferences of certain respondents may undermine equity objectives by masking the distribution of water quality benefits and burdens. This work raises questions about embedded assumptions in valuation methodologies, the appropriate application and interpretation of valuation studies, and ideas for how to integrate a diversity of social science approaches in the evaluation of policies designed to protect or restore environmental quality.
    17. Student Papers -- Latin America Session B [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 6

    Organizer: Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo
    Chair: Marcela Jaime, Universidad de Concepcion
    • Does willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation change in a COVID19 context?......Raymundo Jesús Mogollon Mogollon Ñañez, Universidad Agraria la Molina, Perú
    • In a COVID19 context, where employment levels have fallen and where job prospects are meagre for many in the short term, it is to be expected that biodiversity will take a less prominent role in societal priorities, which can be evidenced by a lower willingness to pay (WTP) for its conservation. This potential fall in the WTP could be emphasised due to the use of remote surveys to capture the WTP, which would likely generate lower WTP estimates compared to in-person surveys. This is an important matter for megadiverse countries such as Peru which usually allocate limited resources to the protection of their biodiversity. Using contingent valuation (CV) methods, 2,400 surveys carried out in 2019 were examined and compared to 2,414 surveys from 2021 in order to estimate the WTP for the biodiversity at the Yanachaga-Chemillén National Park, a megadiverse area in the Peruvian rainforest. The results show that there are no significant differences between the average WTP on remotely conducted surveys and those obtained from in-person survey data. This evidences the strong preferences Peruvian society has towards biodiversity conservation which backs its presence in public policy, even in an unfavourable economic and social context.
    • Private Benefits from Air Pollution Reduction Policies: Evidence from Across the Chilean Income Distribution......Adolfo Uribe Poblete, University of Talca, Chile
    • We use a quasi-experimental approach to estimate the key private benefits from a program to replace inefficient wood-fired heating stoves with more efficient pellet stoves in central Chile. Our research allows us to identify how subsidized improved stoves are used in real conditions and if households experience benefits, such as comfortable temperatures, clean air and lower fuel costs, due to adopting pellet stoves. We also explore heterogeneous impacts of providing the stoves across the income distribution. Combining electronic stove surface temperature and air pollution monitoring measurements inside households along with surveys, we quantify and estimate fuel expenditures, indoor temperatures, and exposure to indoor pollutant concentrations (PM2.5). Adjusting for a variety of factors, our results suggest that users of pellet stoves enjoy indoor PM2.5 reductions of about 13% compared with traditional stove users, and have more stable indoor temperatures (lower variance), but no difference in mean temperatures. We estimate effects by income group and find that lower-income households receive more improvements in indoor air pollution than those with higher-incomes, which suggests that in this dimension the technologies may be progressive. Finally, we estimate that adoption of the improved heating stove is more costly for households. This result holds across all income groups. The improved biomass heating technology therefore does not appear to improve the cost dimension of energy poverty.
    18. Recycling [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon
    Chair: Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon
    • If you build it, they will compost: The effects of municipal composting services on household waste disposal and landfill emissions......Lihini De Silva, University of Sydney; Rebecca Taylor, University of Sydney
    • Landfills are the third largest source of human-related methane emissions. Composting food waste generates significantly less methane emissions than landfills, yet the majority of food waste is sent to landfills. This paper examines how local government provision of composting services affects the amount of household waste going to landfills. Specifically, we examine the quasi-random adoption of curbside organics collection by local councils in New South Wales, Australia, a service that aims to reduce landfill waste by making composting more convenient. Using council-level waste disposal data from 2008-2015 and an event study design, we find that curbside organics collection diverted 4.2 kg of waste per household per week from the landfill stream into the composting stream, one-fourth of the waste the average household was sending to landfill prior to curbside organics collection. We find no evidence that curbside organics collection altered the total amount of household waste disposed and little to no evidence of spillovers on dry-recycling waste. Back-of-the-envelope calculations reveal that curbside organics collection could divert 671,000 tonnes of waste in New South Wales landfills per year and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from landfills by 6-26%.
    • Rethinking Recycling? The Effects of the Green Sword Policy on Local Environmental Outcomes in the U.S.......Shan Zhang, University of Oregon
    • The U.S. EPA is reevaluating its regulations on the recycling industry and methane emissions under the Clean Air Act (CAA). In the past, the U.S. exported a significant share of its recyclable waste overseas, especially to China. However, beginning in 2017, China implemented its Green Sword (GS) policy to stop importing these recyclable wastes from the U.S. As a result, the U.S. recycling industry is facing pressure to send recyclable materials to domestic landfills instead of overseas (which causes more methane emissions), or to process these recyclables on its own (which potentially causes more air pollution). The main research questions addressed in this project are (1) What is the effect of the GS policy on U.S. state-level methane emissions from landfill facilities? (2) What is the distributional effect of the GS policy on environmental outcomes for local communities (at the census tract-level) in the state of California? and (3) What are the effects of the GS policy on local air pollution levels in the vicinity of recycling centers? The paper uses data from the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) and industrial data from the Waste Business Journal (WBJ) to geo-locate more than 3,000 waste disposal facilities across the U.S. that are currently in operation‚Äîincluding landfills, transfer stations, recycling centers, and waste-to-energy incinerators. Taking advantage of techniques developed in Abadie et al. (2012), I use synthetic control methods to measure the effects of the GS policy on methane emissions by state. My control group includes emissions from other industries in each state, such as the oil and gas industry, that are not affected by the GS policy. A spatial experimental design analogous to that used by Currie et al. (2015) is also used to measure the effects of the GS policy on the local air pollution. In addition to the state-level data, I use disposal transport data from CalRecycle (which captures the movement of waste within the state of California by facility) to examine local distributional effects on the environment. Preliminary results suggest that states such as California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Virginia (which had higher export rates of recyclable wastes before the policy) have seen significant increases in methane emissions after the GS policy. However, states such as Alaska, Idaho, and Maine (which had less recyclable waste exports) have seen significant decreases in methane emissions. The preliminary results also show that before the GS policy, particulate matter levels (PM2.5) within a 1-mile buffer of recycling centers is on average 0.58 higher than the PM2.5 in a 3-9 mile buffer. After the GS policy was implemented, PM2.5 levels within a 1-mile buffer of the recycling centers increased by 0.1 on average. Work in progress involves the following tasks: (1) Explain how methane emissions from the waste industry might increase in certain states but decrease in other states due as a consequence of China`s GS policy; (2) Investigate the specific factors (e.g. state-level trade volumes, enforcement and compliance history, etc.) that correlate with the heterogeneous effects of the GS policy on methane emissions across U.S. states; and (3) Use the more granular data from CalRecycle to examine the distributional effects of China`s GS policy on environmental outcomes for local communities in California.
    • Reduce, Reuse, Redeem: Deposit-Refund Recycling Programs in the Presence of Alternatives......Peter Berck, University of California, Berkeley; Molly Sears, University of California, Berkeley; Rebecca Taylor, University of Sydney; Carly Trachtman, University of California, Berkeley; Sofia Villas-Boas, University of California, Berkeley
    • We estimate consumer preferences and willingness to pay for current beverage container recycling methods, including curbside pick-up services, drop-off at government-subsidized recycling centers, and drop-off at non-subsidized centers. Using a representative online and telephone survey of California households, we estimate a discrete choice model that identifies the key attributes explaining consumers` beverage container disposal decisions: the refund amount (paid to consumers only if they recycle at drop-off centers), the volume of recyclable material generated by the household, and the effort associated with bringing recyclable materials to recycling centers. Additionally, we use counterfactual policy analysis to show that increasing the refund amount increases overall recycling rates, with the largest changes in consumer surplus accruing to inframarginal consumers, who are on the boundary between taking containers to recycling centers and recycling using curbside pick-up, namely white and higher income consumers. Conversely, we show that eliminating government- subsidized drop-off centers does not significantly alter consumer surplus for any major demographic group, and has little impact on recycling rates.
    • Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of State Deposit Laws and Recycling Laws: Household Recycling Following Interstate Moves......W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt University; Joel Huber, Duke University; Jason Bell, Duke University
    • This article estimates the effects on recycling behavior of state recycling laws and deposit laws using changes in household recycling behavior before and after interstate moves. Estimates from a national panel dataset on 1,498 households who moved between states provide a quasi-experimental test otherwise not possible given long-term stability of such laws in any state. Compared to national average recycling rates, moves to states with deposits for beverage containers increased the number of materials recycled by 40%, with the largest effects being for glass. More stringent recycling laws boosted the number of material types recycled by an amount equal to 9%. Decreases in recycling of 13% occurred for moves from states with deposit laws to states without such laws, while shifts out of states with stringent laws did not have similarly significant effects.
    19. Valuation Using Revealed, Stated, and Wellbeing Approaches [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: John Whitehead, Appalachian State University
    • Estimating the value of Olympic success......Conal Smith, Kotata Insights, New Zealand
    • In this paper we apply cost-wellbeing valuation to estimate the value of medal success at the Olympics for Aotearoa New Zealand. In particular, we estimate the total social value of New Zealand medals won at the Summer (2008-2016) and Winter Olympics (2010-2018). High performance sport, which includes the Olympic programme, receives significant levels of public funding in New Zealand, so the social value of this funding compared to other potential uses of the funds is of high interest. While there have been several international studies on the tangible and intangible benefits of the Olympics, this has not previously been explored in the Aotearoa New Zealand context and there are few credible studies using a cost-wellbeing methodology even in an international context. In this study, we pooled data from the Household Economic Survey (HES) alongside information on New Zealand’s historic performance in the Summer and Winter Olympic Games between 2008 and 2018. In total we have 63,969 usable observations between 2008 and 2018, giving roughly 440 to 500 observations per month. Our sample period covers three summer and three winter Olympics between 2008 and 2018 with medal totals ranging from nil (2010 and 2014 Winter Games) to 18 (2016 Summer Games). We use a difference in difference design to establish the causal relationship between number of Olympic medals won by New Zealand and subjective wellbeing, and then use wellbeing valuation to estimate the monetary value of success. The compensating surplus associated with an Olympic medal is estimated to lie between NZD $18.77 and NZD$49.07 depending on the assumed income coefficient on life satisfaction.
    • Integrating Recreational Demand and Hedonic Price Models: Evidence from Iowa Lakes Surveys and Zillow Housing Transactions......Xibo Wan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Wendong Zhang, Iowa State university; Yongjie Ji, Iowa State university; Pengfei Liu, University of Rhode Island
    • As outdoor recreation became one of the most popular entertainment forms and a huge contributor to the nation`s economy, it is crucial to understand the recreational usage of residents statewide and construct a comprehensive economic valuation framework to justify the investment in these amenities statewide. Prior literature has estimated the recreational benefits from water quality improvements at recreation sites but often ignore the potential value generated through recreational opportunities in housing market, which leads to an underestimation on the total benefits. Thus, a more comprehensive economic valuation framework to evaluate the total recreational benefits of water quality improvements. In this paper, we examine how regional water quality is capitalized in the housing market when both amenity values and recreation benefits were considered in the two-part model of recreation and housing demand model developed by Phaneuf et al. [2008]. In the first stage, we estimate a household recreation model based on lake usage information from 2014 and 2019 Iowa Lakes Surveys, then employ this recreation model to households` average recreational compensating surplus (ECS) based on block group level demographic information from American Community Surveys. In the second stage, we incorporate the ECS into a hedonic property model to estimate the capitalized effect of the regional water quality. We find a significant household MWTP for water quality improvement driven by regional recreation opportunities and local amenity benefits capitalized into housing prices. We evaluate the Iowa Department of Natural Resources Lake Restoration Program by developing a set of scenarios on water quality outcomes. The additional value of DO increase in 27 restored lakes is $3 to 13 million and of Chlorophyll a reduction is $1 to 5 million based on our repeat-sale samples.
    • Valuing Wellbeing Outcomes: Cost-wellbeing analysis of housing outcomes in the New Zealand General Social Survey......Caitlin Davies, Kotata Insights, NZ; Conal Smith, Kotata Insights, New Zealand
    • SBCA 2022 conference abstract ‚Äì Conal Smith housing Conal Smith Principal 022 414 6235 Wellington, Aotearoa New Zealand Valuing Wellbeing Outcomes: Cost-wellbeing analysis of housing outcomes in the New Zealand General Social Survey Caitlin Davies and Conal Smith In this paper, we use a wellbeing valuation approach to estimate the value associated with housing and other non-market outcomes in New Zealand. In particular, we estimate the compensating and equivalent surplus of non-market outcomes for vulnerable households supported by KƒÅinga Ora (previously known as Housing New Zealand) as well as for the general population. The wellbeing valuation approach adopted here takes life satisfaction as a proxy measure for utility and then uses regression analysis to estimate the compensating or equivalent surplus for non-market outcomes. We use the 2014 and 2016 waves of the New Zealand General Social Survey (NZGSS) and adapt Fujiwara`s (2013) three-stage valuation approach to estimate the equivalent monetary value of objective non-market outcomes, such as housing conditions; discrimination, and crime; health outcomes; loneliness and the ability to express one`s own culture. The paper finds significant costs associated with poor quality housing that increase as housing quality deteriorates. These impacts are mediated through the costs associated with poor health outcomes, but a significant cost remains associated with poor housing quality even after accounting for the costs associated with poor health. Even the minimum estimates of the non-market value of most of the non-market outcomes considered here are sizable. This highlights the inherent risk in evaluating policy options based purely in terms of net fiscal impact. A purely fiscal approach to cost-benefit analysis is likely to risk significant misallocation of resources. Although the analysis in this paper is exploratory, the values presented here provide a starting point for building a more comprehensive suite of non-market values for New Zealand. Ongoing investment in improving the quality of these non-market values has the potential to contribute to better public policy decision-making.
    • Revealed Preference Estimation of Highway User Costs from Pavement Roughness......David Luskin, Trenchant Economics
    • Researchers have modeled the effects of pavement roughness on fuel consumption and tire wear and, less successfully, on the costs of vehicle maintenance and repair and depreciation. Swedish studies that relied on stated preference surveys to analyze more broadly the user costs of pavement roughness, including costs in rider discomfort, produced inconclusive and somewhat ambiguous results. The present revealed preference analysis considers how speed and roughness affect rider comfort, as measured by whole body vibrations, and how pavement roughness affects motorist choice of speed. The resulting estimates of user costs are preliminary and could be improved with more detailed data.
    20. Climate Change in Canada, Chile, Marshall Islands, and United Kingdom [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Thursday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 5

    Chair: Mark Dickie, University of Central Florida
    • A risk-risk trade-off assessment of climate-induced mortality risk changes......Irene Mussio, Newcastle University; Susan Chilton, Newcastle University; Jytte Nielsen, Newcastle University; Darren Duxbury, Newcastle University
    • There is a growing consensus that the impact of climate change on human health needs to be accounted for, having been laid out as a priority for the United Kingdom COP26 conference. However, comparing the benefits of different policies to reduce premature mortality implies an understanding of how different types of fatality risks matter to individuals. More specifically, the existence of a context premium for extreme weather events would be an empirical question, as it is not clear whether the Value of Statistical Life estimates generated for traffic accidents are appropriate for other contexts. We aim to compute the context premium for extreme weather event fatality risks for the UK by examining individual trade-offs between extreme weather event fatality risks and traffic accident fatality risks from a non-monetary valuation perspective. One of the key characteristics of climate change risks is that these risks are psychologically distant, so we exploit the individual perception of climate change using Construal Level Theory and Regulatory Focus concepts. We find evidence of an extreme weather event risk premium of 1.6 based on the preferences of a representative sample of the UK, which translates into an average Value of Statistical Life value of £3.41 million per fatality per year. The psychological distance to climate change is one of the main drivers of the risk, with those psychologically close to climate change weighing extreme weather event fatality risks close to two times the rate of traffic accident fatality risks. Direct experience with traffic accidents dampens the effect of extreme weather event fatality risks on the context premium. This is the first study in a 30+ year history of valuing risks to life that combines non-monetary economic valuation of climate change, health impacts and psychological constructs.
    • Climate change adaptation to rising flood risk in one Québec’s municipalities: How ecosystem services and citizen assembly can enhance decision-making between strategies of adaptation......Ursule Boyer-Villemaire, Ouranos; Annabelle Lamy, Ouranos; Caroline Simard, University of Quebec in Outaouais
    • While considerable research has been devoted to the positive externalities of ecosystems-based solutions, few studies have attempted to quantify them systematically. Many express concerns that a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) approach fails to value intangibles properly. Recent research shows that the valuation of complex environmental goods needs to consider social learning and collective preferences. Deliberative methods of valuation (DMV) are a promising alternative to the classical stated- or revealed-preference methods. Research shows that when stakeholders can deepen their mutual understanding through deliberation, CBAs lead to a better assessment of the information, interests and values that underlie a decision. The aim of this study is twofold: 1) To develop a methodology to implement a bottom-up CBA using citizen assembly and participatory mapping of ecosystem services, and 2) To assess the benefits of implementing “freedom of space for rivers” as an ecosystems-based solution for flood-risk mitigation. This bottom-up CBA will explore how to use both community and expert knowledge to assess the non-market benefits of “freedom of space for rivers”, but also to channel the diverse conceptions of the social good into the construction of a consensus-based adaptation scenario.
    • Megadrought in Chile: The economic impact and the lessons learned in time......Francisco Fernández, Universidad Mayor; Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo; Roberto D. Ponce, Universidad del Desarrollo
    • From 2010 to 2021, Central Chile has experienced one of the most extended, deepest, and warmest droughts in its history. Water shortages during this time have caused millions of dollars in economic losses on different economic sectors such as agriculture, the energy sector (through hydroelectric power plants), rural and urban drinking water supplies, and different sectors of the tourist industry. The historical droughts and the current drought have also brought innovations and improvements in water management, which have better prepared this region to face this natural phenomenon. This study summarizes the magnitude and impacts of the current so-called Central Chile Mega Drought (MD). The paper then reviews innovations and structural changes by different economic sectors arising from Chile`s historical experience of droughts and its water management context. Lessons for Central Chile and drought management are then discussed. Our study shows that in a context of more frequent and severe droughts, the different economic sectors have adapted autonomously, buffering their economic impacts. However, this more complex scenario is also imposing new impacts and challenges. In Central Chile and every other water system, droughts usefully expose weaknesses and inadequate preparation in water management. In this regard, for Central Chile, small rural water supplies had the most to learn.
  • Mark Dickie, University of Central Florida;
  • 21. China's Belt and Road Initiative: New Research Agenda in Cost - Benefit Analysis [Plenary]
    Thursday | 8:00 pm-9:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Euston Quah, Nanyang Technological University
    Chair: Vinod Thomas, National University of Singapore
    • Presenter......Euston Quah, Nanyang Technological University
  • Rick Geddes, Cornell University;
  • 22. The Welfare Impacts of Government Policies: New Evidence from the Policy Impacts Library of MVPFs [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Friday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 2

    Organizer: Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University
    Chair: Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University
    • Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers......Jacob Bastian, Rutgers University
    • This paper calculates the EITC's net cost by estimating effects, both direct and through recipients' behavioral changes, on tax revenue and government transfer spending. We show that the EITC increases labor supply and income, thereby increasing the taxes households pay and reducing the government transfer payments they receive. Using linked IRS--CPS data and several EITC policy changes, and focusing on married and unmarried women, we find that the EITC's net cost is only 17 percent of the ($70 billion) budgetary cost over a one-year period. Although the EITC is one of the U.S.’s largest and most important public assistance programs, the EITC is actually one of the U.S.’s least expensive anti-poverty programs.
    • Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI......Manasi Deshpande, University of Chicago
    • We estimate the effect of losing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. To estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for SSI eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. We evaluate this natural experiment with Social Security Administration data linked to records from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System. We find that SSI removal increases the number of criminal charges by a statistically significant 20% over the next two decades. The increase in charges is concentrated in offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation (60% increase), especially theft, burglary, fraud/forgery, and prostitution. In response to SSI removal, youth are twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they are to maintain steady employment at $15,000/year in the labor market. As a result of these charges, the annual likelihood of incarceration increases by a statistically significant 60% in the two decades following SSI removal. The costs of enforcement and incarceration from SSI removal are so high that they nearly eliminate the savings from reduced SSI benefits.
    • The Impact of Benefit Generosity on Workers’ Compensation Claims: Evidence and Implications*......Marika Cabral, University of Texas at Austi
    • Optimal insurance benefit design requires understanding how coverage generosity impacts individual behavior, insured costs, and welfare. Using unique administrative data, we leverage a sharp increase in the maximum weekly wage replacement benefit in a difference-in-differences research design to identify the impact of workers’ compensation wage replacement benefit generosity on individual behavior and program costs. We find that increasing the generosity of wage replacement benefits does not impact the number of claims but has a large impact on claimant behavior, leading to longer income benefit durations and increased medical spending. Our estimates indicate that behavioral responses to increased benefit generosity raised insured costs 1.4 times as much as the mechanical effect of the benefit increase. Drawing on these estimates along with an estimate of the consumption drop experienced by injured workers, we calibrate a model that suggests that increasing benefit generosity would not improve welfare.
    • The MVPF and the Policy Impacts Library......Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University; Ben Sprung-Keyser, Harvard University
    • I discuss the Marginal Value of Public Funds framework and recent additions to the Policy Impacts Library of MVPF estimates.
    23. Current and Future Transportation Policy Choices [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Friday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 3

    Chair: Peo Nordlof, Swedish Transport Administration
    • Mobility Impacts of TNCs: A Benefit Cost Model for TNC Policies......Manuel Castillo, Steer; Lucile Kellis, Steer; Iain Conway, Steer
    • Transport Network Companies (TNCs) effects on mobility are not well understood while the opportunities and challenges they bring to society are several. Policy makers across the US are experimenting with different policies regarding their usage with mixed results and without a clear understanding of the impacts their policies have on mobility and society. To better inform policy decision making, we have developed a benefit-cost policy model to show outcomes of policies affecting TNCs, such as direct taxes on ridehail use and general congestion charges. The model is flexible enough to evaluate different types of policies in cities with different sizes and characteristics. The benefit-cost policy model combines a mode choice model with benefit-cost analysis to show the effect on mode choice and assess the overall utility of a specified policy, which includes user-defined characteristics of travel for a set of modes, such as taxes on TNCs, cars and taxis. The calculated mode shares from the mode choice model are applied to trip lengths and occupancy data to calculate changes in vehicle miles travelled (VMT), which are then applied to a set of standard values for externalities to represent the policy‚Äôs effect on congestion, safety, climate change and air pollution. The benefit-cost analysis aligns with USDOT guidance. We have applied our TNC benefit cost policy model to several scenarios including the implementation of a direct tax on TNC and a general congestion charge. The model shows that while a general congestion charge can be beneficial to society, there are situations where the implementation of a direct tax on TNC could result in an overall disbenefit to society. This leads to the recommendation that policy makers should carefully evaluate the effect of potential policies that would incur charges on TNC users, as such polices may lead to unintended outcomes and be a disbenefit to society.
    • An insight into CBA applications for urban public transport electromobility in Poland......Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, University of Economics in Katowice, Poland
    • An insight into CBA applications for urban public transport electromobility in Poland Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, Krzysztof Marcinek, Marcin Tomecki University of Economics in Katowice, Poland Electromobility is an area of increasing interest, particularly for Poland, due to environmental and energy security reasons. The aim of the paper is to indicate the limitations of the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in the appraisal of investment in public transport electromobility in the context of the Polish Act of 11 January 2018 on electromobility and alternative fuels. The Act obligate the local government units with a population of more than 50,000 to successively introduce zeroemission city buses to the fleet. A negative result of CBA of such projects discharges this obligation. At the same time, the Act does not precisely define the scope of the CBA (<<financial and economic analysis, estimation of environmental effects related to the emission of harmful substances for the natural environment and human health, and socio-economic analysis taking into account the cost evaluation related to the emission of harmful substances<<) or the guidelines to follow. Therefore, we reviewed feasibility studies prepared for the public transport electromobility investments in selected cities in Poland (population over 500 thousand). The analysis aimed to answer whether the feasibility studies are in line with the base assumptions of the cost-benefit analysis and whether they show methodological discrepancies. The application and level of the financial and social discount rate were studied along with the evaluation criteria and the scope of identification and valuation of externalities and market imperfection corrections. The results shows that most studies can be considered sufficiently correct from the CBA point of view, however some significant discrepancies were observed. The differences arise from externalities (e.g. noise) and fiscal adjustments, and the social discount rate value. This could pose an obstacle for a meaningful comparison of investment projects needed for the optimal allocation of limited public resources.
    • Finding transport projects with high value for money – what are the socio-geographic determinants?......Johanna Jussila Hammes, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, VTI; Gro Holst Volden, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU; Morten Welde, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU; Maria Börjesson, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, VTI; James Odeck, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU
    • We use cost-benefit data from 1052 projects in Norway and Sweden to analyse ex ante factors that can explain which characteristics of transport infrastructure projects explain high value for money. The aim is to identify characteristics that can be used in assessments of projects before a cost-benefit analysis is feasible. We find that in Norway, road toll financing is a good indicator of high value projects, especially in the poorer municipalities. In Sweden, co-financing serves to raise investment volumes, but tends to lead to worse value for money. In Sweden, congestion seems to be the biggest problem in medium-income municipalities, while there are traffic safety benefits to be obtained in the rural areas. A higher initial capacity on a link raises both benefits and costs, and costs are higher in more densely populated areas in both countries. We find diminishing economies of scale in Norway and increasing economies of scale in Sweden.
    24. What will the future bring? Estimating future benefits and costs [Roundtable Discussion]
    Friday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 1

    Organizer: Craig Thornton, Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis
    Chair: Craig Thornton, Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis
    Evaluations of education and training programs face the challenge that most of the costs occur in the short term while it may take years to see all of the benefits. This distribution of costs and benefits will bias any analyses based only on direct observations. Correcting that bias requires estimating future benefits (and costs, if relevant). This panel will discuss the magnitude of this problem (that is, what proportion of total benefits is likely to occur in the future and require estimation), some recent approaches to address the issue, and ways to help decision makers understand the uncertainty inherent in estimating future benefits.
    25. Benefit-cost analysis for health priority setting in low- and middle-income countries [Roundtable Discussion]
    Friday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 4

    Organizer: David Watkins, University of Washington
    Chair: David Watkins, University of Washington
    Benefit-cost analysis is emerging as an appealing alternative to conventional cost-effectiveness analysis in health priority setting in low- and middle-income countries. BCA in this instance is being adapted to help identify and prioritize different strategies for improving health in highly budget-constrained environments. BCA has several advantages over cost-effectiveness analysis, which provides an incomplete picture of the tradeoffs among interventions that have significant non-health benefits or incur substantial costs outside the health sector, such as industrial air pollution controls or water, sanitation, and hygiene-related infrastructure. Collaborators on the Disease Control Priorities Project have been invited to provide their reflections on theoretical, methodological, and practical aspects of using BCA methods in resource- and data-poor settings. The roundtable discussion will begin with a summary of how BCA is currently being used in these settings, drawing on the literature synthesis work featured in the Disease Control Priorities, 3rd Edition series. Discussants will cover recent methodological advances, such as measurement of the distributional consequences of health policies and their financial protection properties, the latter of which is a key objective of universal health coverage systems. Particular attention will be paid to the ethical foundations, tensions, and unresolved issues that underpin different priority-setting approaches – including BCA, cost-utility analysis, and prioritarian social welfare functions. Finally, the panel will reflect on the recently published Reference Case for Benefit-Cost Analysis in Global Health and Development and the opportunities to expand the use of BCA in global health in general and in the Disease Control Priorities Project in particular.
    26. A Happy Choice: Using Accounts of Subjective Wellbeing in Cost-Benefit and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses [Roundtable Discussion]
    Friday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 5

    Chair: Christian Krekel, London School of Economics
    Around the world, governments are starting to directly measure the subjective wellbeing of their citizens and to use it for policy-making. What would happen if a country were to use wellbeing as the primary policy metric? And how could this be implemented in daily practice, for example in cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of government analysts, or in political agenda-setting at the top level? We give answers to these questions, by showing how direct measures of subjective wellbeing can be used for policy appraisal and evaluation, either complementary in the short-run (in form of wellbeing-augmented or wellbeing cost-benefit analyses) or even entirely in the longrun (in form of wellbeing cost-effectiveness analyses). We provide a brief history of the idea that governments should care about the happiness of their citizens, and make suggestions for direct measurement, including an overview on wellbeing valuation methodologies. We then show how to use wellbeing measures to conduct wellbeing cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses based on real policy examples, with a focus on how policy appraisals and evaluations would change if they were based on subjective wellbeing as the primary policy metric. In doing so, our presentation serves the growing interest of governments as well as nongovernmental and international organisations in how to put subjective wellbeing metrics into policy practice.
    27. Valuation of Morbidity and Mortality Risks [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Friday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Nicolai Kuminoff, Arizona State University
    • Searching a Data Ocean for Pearls: A Systematic Review of the Morbidity Valuation Literature......Anna Belova, ICF; Jessica Balukas, ICF; George Gardner, ICF
    • Background: Regulations often have public health implications, and the morbidity-ofinterest collection grows as new science emerges. Morbidity endpoint valuation is an important part of the benefit-cost analysis (BCA). When regulatory schedules prevent new value development, BCAs use values derived from published literature. Increased regulatory transparency requirements prompted widespread use of systematic reviews (SR) in health sciences. We evaluate SR methods in the context of morbidity value development goals. Methods: SR was used to identify valuation studies for 10 endpoints: acute asthma, chronic asthma, stroke, preeclampsia, restricted activity days, lung cancer, pregnancy loss, fatty liver disease, Alzheimer`s disease, and Parkinson`s disease. Information retrieval (IR) combined two query term sets: endpoint-specific query terms (developed using endpoint profiling) and valuation query terms (developed separately for cost-ofillness and willingness-to-pay searches). Google Scholar was used to retrieve Englishlanguage references published during 2010-2021. We used automated screening based on curated exclusion term lists and applied unsupervised IR methods (Okapi BM25) to rank remaining references. We manually screened the top 500 references per endpoint, extracted relevant study information, and prioritized relevant studies relative to their BCA utility. Results: The initial number of retrieved references ranged between 500-68,000, with more references generated by cost-of-illness searches. Automated screening eliminated >50% of this set. Manual screening identified 0.5%-10% relevant references; these included original valuation studies, studies with useful auxiliary information (e.g., mortality risk), and on-topic reviews. Of the relevant valuation studies, <30% were BCAready and <60% were potentially usable after augmentation. Conclusions: The morbidity valuation literature is very diverse, with relevant studies encountered in health economics, social/environmental policy, public health, epidemiology, clinical practice, pharmacology, and other fields. The literature heterogeneity required extensive annotator training to ensure manual review consistency. Further improvements in automated screening and relevance ranking (e.g., using statistical machine learning) are essential for efficient processing of the results pool.
    • A proposed conceptual framework for estimating VSLY and VSL in the UK......Jytte Seested Nielsen, Newcastle University; Susan Chilton, Newcastle University; Hugh Metcalf, Newcastle University; Rachel Baker, Glasgow Caledonian University; Cam Donaldson, Glasgow Caledonian University; Helen Mason, Glasgow Caledonian University; Neil McHugh, Glasgow Caledonian University; Rebecca McDonald, University of Birmingham
    • A proposed conceptual framework for estimating VSLY and VSL in the UK Jytte Seested Nielsen1 Email: Phone number +44 (0) 191 208 1640 Co-authors: Susan Chilton1, Michael Jones-Lee1, Hugh Metcalf1, Rachel Baker2, Cam Donaldson2, Helen Mason2, Neil McHugh2, Rebecca McDonald3, Michael Spackman 1Newcastle University 2Glasgow Caledonian University 3University of Birmingham HM Treasury ‚ÄòGreen Book‚`Äô` guidance sets out different approaches to valuing life and health impacts in the UK. The Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) currently recommended in the Green Book is based on a very small sample stated preference survey of the UK public carried out in the 1990s. The same data also underpins the current Willingness-to-pay for a Quality Adjusted Life-Year (WTP- QALY). We set out a conceptual framework that could underpin a new primary study, one that would generate a Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) with a clear conceptual link to WTP-QALY and a VSL. We recommend a ‚Äòchained approach‚`Äô` as the preferred stated preference method. This involves: ‚Ä¢ a two-stage process to generate the value of a life expectancy gain which establishes how mortality risk reductions and/or improvements in health (policy deliverable) are converted into gains in life expectancy (policy outcome); ‚Ä¢ the estimation of a value function that encompasses life expectancy gains from a few hours to a few months, reflecting a broad class of policy outcomes; ‚Ä¢ an empirical application based on WTP, Standard Gamble and Time-Trade-Off data, analysed in combination. It has a number of advantages over other methods: ‚Ä¢ the chained approach breaks the valuation process down into two steps that are conceptually and cognitively more manageable than direct valuation; ‚Ä¢ elicited values map directly and transparently to the conceptual framework; ‚Ä¢ VOLY, VPF and WTP-QALY values are derived from the same data set; ‚Ä¢ a VOLY and WTP-QALY can be estimated based on existing approaches and both traditions can be harnessed to validate/triangulate any change in recommended policy values. These methods reflect currently available technologies and have been implemented successfully in the field in the context of a VPF and WTP-QALY.
    • Consistent valuation of mortality risk using VSL, VSLY, and VQALY......James Hammitt, Harvard University
    • Consistent valuation of mortality risk using VSL, VSLY, and VQALY The monetary value to an individual of a reduction in mortality risk, whether it is transient or persistent, can be described alternatively using the concepts of value per statistical life (VSL), value per statistical life year (VSLY), and value per quality-adjusted life year (VOALY). These concepts can be defined so that the value of any transient or persistent risk reduction is the same when calculated using any of the three concepts. Consistency requires that at least two of the three values are age-dependent. I present definitions of the three concepts that produce consistent valuations and examine the blases that result from calculating the value of a persistent risk reduction assuming, as is common in practice, that VSL, VSLY, or VOALY is constant across age.
    28. Learning, Schooling, Programs, Earnings, and IQ [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Friday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 3

    Chair: Elaine Waxman, Urban Institute
    • Project QUEST 11-Year Evaluation Findings......Anne Roder, Economic Mobility Corporation; Mark Elliott, Economic Mobility Corporation
    • Project QUEST, founded in San Antonio, Texas in 1992, provides financial, academic, and personal supports to help adults with low incomes obtain postsecondary educational credentials and access well-paying jobs in strong sectors of the local economy. Economic Mobility Corporation (Mobility) conducted a randomized controlled trial study of Project QUEST (QUEST) to assess its impacts on credential attainment and earnings among individuals pursuing health-care careers. Mobility initially reported on QUEST`s six-year impacts using survey data and, with support from Arnold Ventures, has extended the analysis to eleven years after study enrollment using state administrative data on earnings and National Student Clearinghouse data on postsecondary education outcomes. The study estimates costs using administrative data from QUEST and data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System on college costs. The study found that QUEST participants continued to earn significantly more than individuals in the control group eleven years after study enrollment. QUEST increased postsecondary credential attainment and more than doubled the proportion who earned health-care credentials over the eleven years. The earnings gains that QUEST participants experienced far exceeded the costs of the program and participants` college attendance over the eleven years. The presentation would describe the study`s findings on QUEST`s impacts on employment, earnings, and college enrollment and completion. It would also discuss QUEST`s costs and the findings from a comparison of QUEST`s net earnings benefit to its net costs.
    • Pay for Success outcomes for early childhood education in Chicago: Results from the Social Impact investments in the Child-Parent Center program......Judy Temple, University of Minnesota; Arthur Reynolds, University of Minnesota
    • Pay for Success outcomes for early childhood education in Chicago: Results from the Social Impact investments in the Child-Parent Center program Starting in 2014, private investors funded an expansion of an existing early education program offered in the Chicago Public Schools. As part of a Social Impact Bond (SIB) initiative spearheaded by Goldman Sachs, almost 3,000 additional preschool slots were funded via a Pay for Success contract that specified that the investors would be paid back by the school district if certain target outcomes were met. The main outcome of interest was reductions in subsequent special education placements from kindergarten through grade 12. Cost-benefit analysis was central to this and the other 25 SIB deals that were launched around the U.S. at that time (Temple and Reynolds, 2015, Nonprofit Finance Fund, 2019). Social impact bond initiatives are motivated by the existence of government cost savings that may arise from expansion of preventive human capital programs. Cost-benefit analysts focus closely on whether the public cost savings (or program benefits) will be greater than the cost of the services offered. In the public/private partnership between investors and the Chicago Public Schools, the repayments primarily were based on whether the preschool expansion saved taxpayers money due to reductions in the students` subsequent need for costly special education services. While results from the impact evaluation from the first few years indicated small effects on special education and other outcomes, only a small amount was repaid to the private investors. This study provides updated results and estimated cost savings as the students have moved through elementary school and discusses more generally the use of CBA to motivate targeted public investments to promote equity. Temple & Reynolds. (2015). Using benefit-cost analysis to scale up early childhood programs through pay-for-success financing. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 6(3), 628-653. Nonprofit Finance Fund. (2019). Pay for Success: The first 25. https://
    • Monetizing Improvements in Learning using Equivalent Years of Schooling......Ardyn Nordstrom, Limestone Analytics; Bahman Kashi, Limestone Analytics; Jay MacKinnon, Limestone Analytics; Christopher Cotton, Limestone Analytics; Lindsay Wallace, Limestone Analytics
    • Education interventions, programs, and policies can increase both the quantity (increasing enrollment and years of schooling) and quality (improving learning and test scores) of education. However, standard benefit-cost analysis approaches are better suited for assessing the value of quantity, rather than quality, improvements, potentially underestimating their benefits. We review newly developed methods for estimating the value of quality improvements using equivalent years of schooling approaches and apply these methods to assess the benefits of a variety of education programs. We use these approaches to compare the cost-effectiveness of several alternative education interventions in Malawi, from infrastructure and staffing improvements to technology-assisted learning and teaching at the right level, in order to guide public investment strategy. We also apply the methods to conduct an ex-post value for money analysis of a major UK Girls` Education Challenge project in Zimbabwe, showing the potential for such benefit-cost analysis methods to assess education improvements across the UK`s challenge fund portfolio.
    • Estimating Lifetime Earnings and the Effect of IQ on Earnings......Matt LaPenta, ABT Associates; Theo Gimenez, ABT Associates
    • Valuing changes in the intelligence quotient (IQ) is an important component to monetizing the effects of regulations expected to have significant impacts on IQ. In regulatory benefit-cost analyses, the dollar value of a single IQ point can be estimated as the change in lifetime earnings associated with an additional IQ point. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the average lifetime earnings of an individual born into a particular birth cohort and estimate the associated effect of a one point change in IQ on lifetime earnings. To estimate average lifetime earnings, we estimate annual earnings for our birth cohorts at each age by educational attainment and combine the earnings estimates with our estimated distribution for their educational attainment. We then estimate the value of an IQ point as a percentage of lifetime earnings using estimates from a reanalysis of Salkever (1995. <<Updated estimates of earnings benefits from reduced exposure of children to environmental lead.<< Environmental Research 70(1): 1-6),following the same approach as Salkever`s original analysis but using the more recent 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY) data instead of the 1979 NLSY data. Our reanalysis indicates that a one point change in IQ results in a 1.871 percent and 3.409 percent change in lifetime earnings for males and females, respectively, which is very similar to Salkever`s (1995) original estimates.
    29. Benefit-Cost Analysis in Agriculture [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Friday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 4

    Chair: Rob Moore, Scioto Analysis
    • Benefit-Cost Analysis on FSIS’s Non-O157 STEC on Raw Beef Products......Flora Tsui, USDA/FSIS
    • On September 20, 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture`s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced that raw, non-intact beef products and raw, intact beef products that are intended for use in raw, non-intact beef products contaminated with six non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC)- O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, and O145 - are adulterated. The Agency implemented a verification testing program for the six non-O157 STEC in raw beef manufacturing trimmings on June 4, 2012. This benefit-cost analysis assesses the economic effects of testing raw beef manufacturing trimmings for the six nonO157 STEC.
    • The need to ascertain the financial justification for cassava processing intervention as pro-poor livelihood improvement strategy for the core poor women and youths in Nigeria, prompted the evaluation of the financial viability and distribution of benefits across the cassava processing chain under the IFAD Assisted Value Chain Development Programme in Niger State, Nigeria. The study relies on primary data being solicited from processing actors, their cooperatives, credit institutions, assemblers and transporters. In all, 300 respondents are targeted for interview covering all key actors. To achieve the objectives of the study, the financial and economic CBA techniques, comprising the cost-benefit ratio, return on investment, net present value, internal rate of returns, incremental benefits, distributional and sensitivity analyses will be deployed. The outcome of the study will reveal the financial and economic justification for cassava processing among project beneficiaries, the distribution of benefits across the value chain and the likely effect of risk parameters.
    • Identifying Sepsis from Foodborne Hospitalization: Incidence and Hospitalization Cost by Pathogen......Jae-Wan Ahn, USDA Economic Research Service; Sandra Hoffmann, USDA Economic Research Service; Elaine Walter, Colorado School of Public Health; Alice White, Colorado School of Public Health; R. Brett McQueen, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus
    • Sepsis causes a major health burden in the United States. To better understand the role of sepsis as a driver of the burden and cost of foodborne illness in the United States, we estimated the frequency and treatment cost of sepsis among U.S. patients hospitalized with 31 pathogens ommonly transmitted through food or with unspecified AGI. Using data from the National Ipatient Sample from 2012-2015, we identified sepsis hospitalizations using two approaches‚Äî explicit ICD-9-CM codes for sepsis and a coding scheme developed by Angus that identifies esis using specific ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes indicating an infection plus organ failure. We eained differences in the frequency and the per-case cost of sepsis across pathogens and AGI n stimated total hospitalization costs using prior estimates of foodborne hospitalizations. Using Explicit Sepsis Codes, sepsis hospitalizations accounted for 4.3% of hospitalizations with aptogen commonly transmitted through food or unspecified AGI listed as a diagnosis; this a 28% using Angus Sepsis Codes. The average per-case cost was $35,724 and $19,203, rsetvely. Applying the proportions of hospitalizations with sepsis from this study to prior siae of the number foodborne hospitalizations, the total annual cost was $275 million anal sing Explicit Sepsis Codes and $1 billion using Angus Sepsis Codes. Sepsis is a eiu oplication among patients hospitalized with a foodborne pathogen infection or AGI resulting in a large burden of illness. Hospitalizations that are diagnosed using explicit sepsis cdsaemre severe and costly, but likely underestimate the burden of foodborne sepsis
  • Rob Moore, Scioto Analysis;
  • 30. Water Resources [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Friday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 5

    Chair: Lynne Lewis, Bates College
    • BCA of nature-based solutions to reduce hydro-meteorological risks......Heini Ahtiainen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); Jaakko Juvonen, Finnish Meteorological Institute; Eeva Kuntsi-Reunanen, Finnish Meteorological Institute; Tuija Lankia, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); Eija Pouta, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
    • Nature-based solutions (NBS) are actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore ecosystems, simultaneously providing benefits to biodiversity and human well-being. One of their application is to reduce hydro-meteorological hazards and vulnerability, such as floods, landslides and eutrophication. In addition to their primary impact on hydro-meteorological risks, NBS can help sustain and enhance ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being. Thus, NBS provide both direct benefits from reduced hydro-meteorological risks and indirect benefits associated with the environment and ecosystem services. A challenge in BCAs of NBS is to comprehensively assess their various impacts and monetize them. This paper presents an approach for assessing the direct and indirect benefits and costs associated with NBS to reduce hydro-meteorological risks and illustrates its implementation with benefit-cost analyses related to NBS for floods, landslides and eutrophication in Europe. Direct benefits are assessed based on avoided damages, using land use maps, information on land use values and existing damage functions, which depict the relative damage to the value of built environment. Indirect benefits from selected ecosystem services and biodiversity are based on economic valuation studies of environmental benefits. Inherent uncertainty in the impacts of the NBS and the monetary benefit and cost estimates is addressed using Monte Carlo simulation. The general approach is applied with case-specific modifications for four different types of NBS in six areas. The novelty of the application is the comprehensive assessment of both the direct and indirect benefits of NBS in a coherent manner. The results of the BCA indicate that NBS can be economically efficient in reducing hydro-meteorological risks. The findings also imply that acknowledging the indirect benefits is important for the economic effectiveness of NBS, and further efforts are needed to better capture the effect of NBS on non-market benefits.
    • Benefit-Cost Analysis of restoration of hydrological processes in a 140 hectare area surrounding Villestrup Creek......Jesper Schou, UCPH
    • In this study we present an ex ante social benefit-cost anaysis of the effects following restoration of hydrological processes and introduction of low input all year grazing in a 140 hectare area surrounding Store Bl√•kilde Spring and Villestrup Creek in the municipality of Mariagerfjord. The BCA covers all costs and benefits, marketed as well as non-marketed, resulting from the project. Two restoration scenarios are considered relative to a business-as-usual baseline, which entails continued intensive agricultural production in the area. In the first restoration scenario, land-use is converted to low input all year grazing and natural hydrological processes are restored. In addition to this, the second restoration scenario further entails re-meandering of a 3 km stretch of the upper part of Villestrup Creek. Costs of the scenarios are determined using a description of the restoration processes, primary data and on-site observations. Benefits are assessed using benefit transfer from relevant Danish valuation studies. Benefits primarily derive from reduced GHG-emissions and improved biological functions. We find that both restoration scenarios result in benefits clearly exceeding the costs. Results suggest socioeconomic net benefits from the scenarios of $1.5 and $1.6 million, respectively, with associated benefit-cost ratios at 8 and 4. Sensitivity analyses show that results are robust to a number of uncertainties and assumptions made in the analysis. Overall, findings are in line with previous benefitcost studies in Denmark involving reallocation of agricultural land for biodiversity and environmental purposes.
    • National Water Quality Values in New Zealand: Policy-Relevant Stated Preference Estimates......Patrick Walsh, National Center for Environmental Economics, USEPA; Dennis Guignet, Appalachian State University; Pamela Booth, Landcare Research
    • Governments need robust methods to analyse trade-offs and inform freshwater. Although there is a large stated preference (SP) literature valuing changes in freshwater quality, the estimated values often cannot be transferred to policy analyses. Obstacles to benefit transfer include (i) difficulties in scaling up local estimates to the national level, (ii) the use of water quality attributes that cannot be linked to policy-relevant measures, and (iii) surveys presenting large water quality changes that are not representative of actual policy. Focusing on rivers and streams in New Zealand, a country that has received international attention for efforts to protect its water resources, we develop and implement a nationwide discrete choice SP study that can be more appropriately used in benefit transfer. The stated provision mechanism and environmental commodity being valued are at the regional council-level, which is the same administrative unit for actual water quality policy in New Zealand, and the survey is administered across the entire country (to just over 2,000 respondents). Therefore, our results can easily be applied to regional freshwater policies, or scaled up to inform federal actions. The discrete choice experiment attributes ‚Äì nutrients, water clarity, and e. coli levels ‚Äì were chosen because they align with policy levers and were found to be the most relevant and salient to the general public. The changes in attribute levels presented to respondents are also more in-line with the size of changes from actual policies. We find robust evidence that people are willing to pay (WTP) for improvements in all three water quality attributes. The stated WTP estimates are plausible, and are in-line with an recent referendum that took place in Auckland. Our results also suggest that WTP varies across regions and with the types of recreation that a user engages in. At the same time, there is significant unobserved heterogeneity that is accounted for, but remains unexplained by our models. To illustrate the utility of our study, we apply the results to a recent policy analyzed by New Zealand`s Ministry for the Environment, and estimate nationwide annual benefits of $18 million ($NZ, 2018).
    • Benefit identification and monetization of water resources management interventions of the World Bank......Christian Borja Vega, The World Bank
    • This report presents a methodological guideline for economic analysis of interventions related to water resources management. The analysis is based on 20 World Bank`s water project distributed in all development regions between 2010 and 2018. The economic analyses conducted on these projects were at the design and completion stages. The identification of various forms of cost, benefits, and environmental externalities of water resources management interventions is presented, along with issues related to the measurements and monetization of cots and benefits. The analysis of the World Bank`s water projects shed light on how to monetize the tradeoffs of various bundles of environmental benefits and which alternatives make the best uses of scarce resources of large-scale projects. Given the variety of water resources management interventions that are dependent on local environmental, economic, and hydrological conditions, the results of this report are guideline for practitioners and researchers to identify the best possible approaches to generate strong economic assessments of these types of projects in developing countries.
    31. The Year in Regulation: Benefits, Costs, and Other Implications of Federal Regulations in 2021 [Roundtable Discussion]
    Friday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Clark Nardinelli, FDA
    Chair: Clark Nardinelli, FDA
    In this roundtable, regulatory scholars and current and former OMB-OIRA officials will discuss the past year in regulation. With the end of the deregulatory push and other policies of the last administration, regulatory times have changed quickly. With OIRA’s 2021 Report to Congress on the Benefits and Costs of Federal Regulations as their starting place, the panelists will give their takes on the year’s executive branch regulations. The discussion will start with the benefits and costs of the Biden administration’s early regulations but will range beyond the regulations themselves to the types of regulations and their broader implications. The first year of a new administration’s regulations is typically quiet, as the new regime assesses the previous regime’s regulations and forms its own policy. The continuing COVID-19 pandemic alone has made this first year atypical. Moreover, the differences in philosophy between the incoming and outgoing regimes has led the new administration to call for wide recommendations for reform. The panel will therefore also consider the Presidential memorandum and three executive orders that collectively rescind the previous administration’s regulatory policies and set policy for the coming years. The panelists will consider whether the documents will establish a new regulatory program, with broad changes that will alter the nature of federal regulations
    32. Modernizing Regulatory Analysis: A conversation with former OIRA Administrators [Plenary]
    Friday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Susan Dudley, George Washington University
    Chair: Richard Revesz, NYU Law School
    On his first day in office, President Biden issued a Memorandum on Regulatory Review that both reaffirmed longstanding principles for regulatory analysis and review, but also directed OIRA and federal agencies to “provide concrete suggestions on how the regulatory review process can promote public health and safety, economic growth, social welfare, racial justice, environmental stewardship, human dignity, equity, and the interests of future generations.” Specifically, these recommendations were to include “revisions to Circular A-4, Regulatory Analysis” (2003) and “procedures that take into account the distributional consequences of regulations.” This conversational panel of former administrators of the U.S. Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs will share their insights on what to expect from the Biden Administration regarding benefit-cost analysis of regulations, including understanding distributional consequences and equity in regulatory analysis. Panelists served in the Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations.
    33. SBCA Awards and Business Meeting [Plenary]
    Friday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 1

    Chair: Glenn Blomquist, University of Kentucky
    This session will announce the Society's major awards, including the awards for best 2021 article in the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, the Richard Zerbe Award for service to the Society, and the new Society Fellow designations. The Article of the Year winners will give a brief review of the substantive contributions their articles make. The session will also give us a chance to remember Society members who have passed away during the past year. The session will close with a business meeting that will review the Society's activities during the past 12 months, describe the initiatives planed for the next 12 months, lay out the Society's improving financial situation, and discuss a proposed change to the Society's bylaws. There will be time for questions and suggestions from the audience. We hope you will take advantage of this opportunity to learn about recent developments in the field and to help shape the future of our Society.
    34. What Makes a Good "On Balance" Blog and Why You Should Write One [Innovative Session]
    Friday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 2

    Organizer: Rob Moore, Scioto Analysis
    Chair: Clark Nardinelli, FDA
    The three people who have helmed SBCA's official blog, On Balance, will be on hand here to talk about writing blogs and how involvement with the blog can help you expand the reach of your research.
    35. Chat with SBCA Officers and Board Members - Ideas for 2023 [Innovative Session]
    Friday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 3

    Organizer: Glenn Blomquist, University of Kentucky
    Chair: Glenn Blomquist, University of Kentucky
    36. Publishing in the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis [Roundtable Discussion]
    Friday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University
    Chair: Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University
    Opportunity for the JBCA Editors to report on the journal and offer their perspectives on publishing in the broad area of benefit-cost analysis.
    • Panelist......Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University
    37. Evolution of discounting practices in cost-benefit analysis for international development investment [Roundtable Discussion]
    Friday | 8:00 pm-9:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Arif Mamun, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    Chair: Ben Bryant, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    38. Student Papers - Ethiopia and Tanzania [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 5

    Organizer: Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics
    Chair: Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics
    • Fuel-stacking behaviour among households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania......Matilda Stanslaus Ntiyakunze, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
    • In many developing countries, modern energy sources are seen not only as cleaner and more efficient than traditional fuels, but also important for achieving socio-economic development in the country. Hence, from an energy policy perspective, households should switch towards modern energy sources use. However, despite the availability of modern energy sources in the city of Dar es Salaam, many households continue to use traditional fuels for cooking, often in combination with their modern counterparts. Therefore, this study contributes to the existing literature by describing and analysing this so-called energy mix in the city as well as the effects of households’ experience with using various fuels. A comparison of multinomial logit specifications yielded different results, which implies that the analysis of the energy mix is sensitive to the way households are categorised in the research; households are much more likely to shift most of their energy use to new fuel types in response to changing conditions than to shift all of it. The results also show that households’ fuel choices were sensitive to their fuel-use experience. Both findings have implications for energy policy; achieving shifts to new fuel types is easier if the goal is to achieve widespread, rather than total, shifts in household energy use, and achieving shifts to new fuels is easier if households have had at least some prior experience with those fuels
    • Residential fuel consumption and technology choices: An application of FGNLS and Multinomial logit model......Nuredin Juhar, Addis Ababa University
    • In this paper joint modeling of household energy technology choice decision and short run energy is applied. Iterated feasible generalized nonlinear least squares is applied to estimate the short run residential fuel consumption and multinomial logit model for technology choice decision of households. The short run estimated price elasticity in the three models are negative and less than unity. The probability of choosing traditional power saving stove increases significantly with charcoal expenditure for both baking and cooking purposes. The probability of choosing both electric mitad/stove and traditional power saving stove is positively and significantly increasing with electricity expenditure. Electricity, firewood and charcoal are necessities and households are having fuel stacking behavior to use them for different purposes.
    • Energy Efficiency of Manufacturing Firms in Ethiopia: Endogeneity-Corrected Stochastic Frontier Analysis......Hailegebriel Yirdaw, Addis Ababa University; Måns Söderbom, University of Gothenburg, Sweden
    • We use firm level panel data for the period 2012-16 to estimate energy efficiency and its drivers for manufacturing industries in Ethiopia. Results from energy input oriented stochastic frontier analysis show that renewable energy for output production exhibits relatively high energy efficiency scores compared to total energy. Moreover, unlike total energy, expenditure on renewable energy is responsive to changes in output and labor, less so to capital input. We find that energy inefficiency is lower at firms that export and spend more on R&D, and higher for large and older firms.
  • Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics;
  • 39. Evaluation- Based CBA in Practice: Case Studies of Agriculture and Roads [Innovative Session]
    Monday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 2

    Organizer: Sarah Lane, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    Chair: Sarah Lane, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    This session will outline how evaluation findings have provided a broader understanding of the returns on MCC’s investments in a CBA framework. MCC has been a leader in using analytical tools for project development, project evaluation, and learning. This has resulted in a strong feedback loop linking ex ante cost benefit analysis to evaluations, eventually resulting in an evaluation-based CBA conducted 3-5 years after a project ends to use actual results to measure a more accurate net present value and economic rate of return for a project. The panel will present on the last iteration of ex ante CBA models developed at MCC, just as programs are completed (Closeout CBA models), and how using evaluation findings are improving our CBA models in two sectors: Roads and Agriculture. Presenters will discuss findings from project evaluations, how they are incorporated into CBA models for the same project, and how this leads to an important learning feedback loop for future project design.
    • Panelist......Sarah Lane, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    • Panelist......Cindy Sobieski, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    • Panelist......Sarah Bishop, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    40. Norms and standards in CBA: national and EU guidelines [Roundtable Discussion]
    Monday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 1

    Organizer: Chiara Pancotti, Centre for Industrial Studies
    Chair: Chiara Pancotti, Centre for Industrial Studies
    Despite a common framework of well-accepted principles, the practice of cost-benefit analysis has several sectoral and national traditions, reflected in specific approaches and standards. In an effort of harmonization and standardization, sectoral and national guidelines are developed to set a common ground in project appraisal for large capital investments competing for scarce public money. International experience shows that CBA guidelines should strike a certain balance between standardisation and flexibility, by one side ensuring quality in project appraisals and by the other supporting a smooth decision-making process. This panel presents different national and EU guidelines for CBA as well as the legislative and institutional framework in which they are embedded. Lessons on how to develop appraisal capacities and ensure that CBA is enforced in the decision-making process are also discussed. Keywords: project appraisal, guidelines, harmonisation
  • Massimo Florio, University of Milan;
  • 41. New planning and policy challenges due to climate change to utility companies [Roundtable Discussion]
    Monday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 3

    Organizers: Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo; Roger Madrigal, CATIE, Costa Rica; David Fuente, University of South Carolina;
    Chair: Roger Madrigal, CATIE, Costa Rica
    In this roundtable, we set a dialog with policymakers, utility companies, and academic researchers around the new challenges that climate change has brought to them. This round table is motivated by several interactions with policymakers seeking orientation from researchers around the design of new tariff structures to cope with climate change impacts, the multidimensional evaluation of those tariffs, and the economic valuation of climate change impacts. We will have a policy-oriented discussion, with three presentations from nonacademics, followed by a talk from two academics orientated to address these issues from a practical perspective. We have three participants: Max Carbajal, Director of Water Sanitation from the Ministry of Housing, Construction, and Sanitation in Perú. Luis Gámes from Heredia´s Public Services company, Costa Rica and the Eng. Nahason Muguna, Managing Director, Nairobi Water and Sewerage Corporation, Kenya. We will also have two discussants: Guillermo Donoso (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) and Dale Whittington (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA)
    • Panelist......Guillermo Donoso, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
    • Panelist......Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • Panelist......NAHASON MUGUNA, Managing Director, Nairobi Water and Sewerage Corporation, Kenya
    • Panelist......Luis Gámez, Empresas Servicios Publicos de Heredia
    • Panelist......Max Carbajal, Ministry
    42. Roundtable on the new UK Government guidance on the use of wellbeing within appraisal [Roundtable Discussion]
    Monday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 4

    Organizer: Kirsten Jensen, The New Zealand Treasury
    Chair: Nancy Hay, What Works Centre for Wellbeing, UK
    Over the past decade, the UK Government has placed an increasing emphasis on the measurement and use of wellbeing metrics for public policy. The UK Office for National Statistics has been measuring subjective wellbeing since 2011, using a combination of eudemonic, affective and evaluative measures. In parallel the wellbeing economics evidence base has continued to grow, furnishing public officials with the tools to embed wellbeing in policy appraisal. This roundtable will discuss the development, content and implications of the recently released UK Government guidance on the use of wellbeing evidence within appraisal. This sits beneath the UK Treasury Green Book, and outlines how wellbeing measures can be used in policy design, setting strategic objectives, generating options, long-list appraisal and detailed cost-benefit analysis of shortlisted options. The session will begin with a number of short presentations: • An overview of the new UK wellbeing appraisal guidance, covering its purpose, content and practical tools used to include wellbeing effects in cost-benefit analysis (including a discussion of CBA versus CEA, and monetisation using WELLBYs). [Nancy Hey, Allan Little and Iven Stead] • The application of welfare weights to the lifetime earnings benefits of increased educational attainment, which forms part of new appraisal guidance underpinning one third of the UK Department for Education’s business cases. [Allan Little] • Wellbeing in the context of culture and heritage and the recently published Culture and Heritage Capital Framework. This will explore the institutional and practical challenges associated with monetising the wellbeing impacts of heritage. [Harman Sagger and Adala Leeson] • The potential for using subjective wellbeing valuations within transport appraisal, for impacts such as commuting travel time savings, environmental externalities and social impacts. [Iven Stead] A roundtable discussion will then focus on the opportunities, benefits and challenges of implementing wellbeing-based appraisal, across a wide range of policy areas. Contributions will be invited from conference participants involved in the application of wellbeing-based appraisal to public policy.
    • Panelist......Iven Stead, Department for Transport, United Kingdom
    • Panelist......Allan Little, Department of Education, UK
    • Panelist......Adala Leeson, Historic England, UK
    • Panelist......Harman Sagger, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport UK
    • Panelist......Sara MacLennan, Dept for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, UK
    43. The causes and consequences of pollution exposure gaps [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Lala Ma, University of Kentucky
    Chair: Lala Ma, University of Kentucky
    • The Distributional Consequences of Incomplete Regulation......Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Arizona State University
    • Environmental policies can be ineffective if firms shift production processes from regulated to unregulated sectors. Such incomplete regulations could affect the spatial distribution of pollution and who bears its burden. This paper studies the distributional impacts of incomplete regulation in the context of a policy intended to reduce pollution from industrial mills that process sugarcane in Mexico. Sugar mills have two technological options for harvesting sugarcane: either mechanical or manual cut. When sugarcane is cut manually, fires must be used to clean excess vegetation from the sugarcane plant. If sugarcane is not cleaned using fires, it needs to go through an additional cleaning process that uses industrial boilers. Starting in 2014, a policy aimed at decreasing NOx emissions from industrial boilers required all industrial facilities to reduce emissions via technology standards. I use rich data on sugar mills operations to examine whether regulated facilities shifted towards dirtier inputs after the regulation, altering the spatial distribution of pollution. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I compare regulated and exempt facilities after the policy was implemented. I find that fields linked to regulated mills increased manual cut, increasing the number of sugarcane fires by 14% which resulted in a 6% increase in PM2.5 near these fields while industrial pollution decreased by 3%. I then examined the distributional and health impacts of incomplete regulation. I find that the most vulnerable households experienced the largest increases in pollution which translated in worse health outcomes for newborns: I find that an additional ¬µg/m3 increase in pollution increases very low birth weight incidence by 2%, and increases very preterm birth incidence by 3% with larger increases for the newborns in the lowest income distribution. These results document the environmental justice effects of incomplete regulation when producers can substitute their inputs and these create higher pollution to nearby communities.
    • Air Pollution and Economic Opportunity in the United States......Jonathan Colmer, University of Virginia; John Voorheis, US Census Bureau; Brennan Williams, University of Virginia
    • Neighborhoods are an important determinant of economic opportunity in the United States. Less clear is how neighborhoods affect economic opportunity. Here we provide early evidence on the importance of environmental quality in shaping economic opportunity. Combining 36 years of satellite derived PM2.5 concentrations measured over roughly 8.6 million grid cells with individual-level administrative data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service (IRS), we first document a new fact: early-life exposure to particulate matter is one of the top five predictors of upward mobility in the United States. Next, using regulation-induced reductions in prenatal pollution exposure following the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, we estimate significant increases in adult earnings and upward mobility. Combined with new individual-level measures of pollution disparities at birth, our estimates can account for up to 20 percent of Black-White earnings gaps, and 25 percent of the Black-White gap in upward mobility estimated in Chetty et al. (2018). Combining our estimates with experiment-induced reductions in pollution exposure from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment, we can account for 15 percent of the total neighborhood earnings effect estimated in Chetty et al. (2016). Collectively, these findings suggest that disparities in environmental quality may play a meaningful role in explaining observed patterns of income inequality and economic opportunity in the United States.
    • Is There an Illness-Poverty-Amenity Trap? Evidence from Administrative Data on Seven Million Seniors......Jonathan Ketcham, Arizona State University; Nicolai Kuminoff, Arizona State University; Sophie Mathes, EPGE Fundação Getulio Vargas
    • This study investigates long-term interactions between residential sorting and health among senior citizens in the United States. We use federal administrative records for a 20% sample of the over-65 population of the United States to link individuals` residential locations in 2001-2013 to their pollution exposures, race, sex, Medicaid eligibility as a proxy for income, medical spending, chronic medical conditions, and mortality. We document several facts. First, lower income seniors are more likely to live in neighborhoods with lower environmental quality; to be diagnosed with more chronic medical conditions; to spend more on health care; and to die sooner. Second, new diagnoses of chronic medical conditions that are believed to be caused, in part, by environmental factors‚Äîsuch as cancers, strokes, and heart attacks‚Äîincrease the probability of migration. Third, lower-income migrants tend to move to neighborhoods with lower environmental quality. Finally, we show that all of these facts can be explained by an <<illness-poverty-amenity trap<< in which sicker, lower-income seniors are exposed to worse environmental conditions that degrade their health, increase their medical spending and, over time, increase the probability that they will move to neighborhoods that are less expensive and more polluted. Formally, we extend Tiebout`s (1956) sorting model to recognize that health may affect the rates at which seniors are willing to trade private consumption for access to local public goods. We show that if preferences satisfy a standard single-crossing condition and public goods are productive for health, then lower income seniors will tend to live in neighborhoods with fewer public goods, to experience more rapidly declining health, and to spend more on health care. We show that this sorting process can generate pollution exposure gaps by age and health that parallel the gaps by race and income that have been the primary focus of prior environmental justice literature.
    • Flood Risk, Property Buyouts, and Environmental Justice......Kay Jowers, Duke University; Lala Ma, University of Kentucky; Christopher Timmins, Duke University
    • This study investigates the impact of property acquisitions, or <<buyouts,<< under the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on disproportionate flood risk exposure and wealth accumulation. Using nationwide property-level transactions data and address-specific flood property acquisitions, we estimate the price premium (or discount) of buyout properties relative to the counterfactual market price that the property would have received based on comparable properties within the county. We then test whether price premiums or discounts systematically vary based on the race of the individual whose property was acquired and track the neighborhoods to which these individual subsequently relocate. Our findings have implications for the distributive effects of policies to adapt to natural disasters and for quantifying the damages from climate change.
    44. Equity and Equality in Public Projects [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Don Pickrell, Volpe Center, U.S. Dept. of Transportation
    • Economics of Equity in Infrastructure Investments......Chris Behr, HDR
    • The utilitarian basis for standard benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) determines the net value from infrastructure project outcomes (e.g. a time savings or avoided flood risk) from the sum of the monetary equivalents of similarly-defined utilities across all individuals. This approach aims to support project selections that efficiently allocate resources. But, it fails to account for potentially stark differences in the value of benefits to beneficiaries - (conceptually) leaving the gap to be made up through tax-funded programs. Considering growing inequalities and rising public interest in social equity, a broader perspective (beyond efficiency) on project ranking is warranted. Theoretical foundations on social welfare functions (SWF) and data on the marginal utility of income provide an opportunity to expand the conversation around project evaluation of infrastructure. A practical way of incorporating the values of improvements to people with different wealth and income involves a welfare-weighted BCA. Depending on the project, welfare-weighted BCAs could yield significantly different project rankings. This paper explores comparisons between standard and welfare-weighted BCAs with respect to infrastructure assessments. Example analyses are conducted by drawing from previously performed BCAs across infrastructure sectors. The purpose of this work is to identify the contexts where welfare-weighted BCAs can support public investment evaluations and the conversation around decisions where equity is a key criterion for infrastructure investments. The paper will conclude with a summary of ongoing research activities.
    • Investigating distributional weighting in UK transport appraisal......Iven Stead, Department for Transport, United Kingdom; Christopher Cheyney, UK Department for Transport
    • We estimate distributional weights, in line with UK HMT Green Book guidance, which can be applied to transport appraisal. Data from the National Travel Survey, National Rail Travel Survey and UK 2014/15 Value of Travel Time Savings study are used to calculate distributionally weighted values for a range of journey purposes, trip distances, income segments and travel modes. This provides a practical tool, consistent with economic theory, to place greater weight on more economically deprived areas, even where detailed local income data is not available. The current UK DfT approach uses averaged values of time for appraising time savings, to reflect equity considerations. But the lack of equity adjustment to tolls, fares or vehicle operating costs ‚Äì long understood to be internally inconsistent ‚Äì is re-examined and the consistent application of distributional weights offered as a solution. A key finding is that distributional weights are highly sensitive to purpose, mode, trip distance, the burden of taxation and how income is measured. We offer perspectives on the interaction between distributional weights and the source of project funding. The source of funding will impact the levels of Benefit Cost Ratios and Net Present Values, but has no impact on relative economic worth of schemes in an investment portfolio. By deriving distributional weights for the UK, we are able to compare appraisal results using current UK DfT guidance`s average values of time with (i) those obtained using distributional weights; and (ii) a pure efficiency (unweighted) analysis. This highlights the equity-efficiency trade-off implicit in transport investment decision making more clearly than with the use of standard national average appraisal values of time. Finally, we analyse the policy implications of distributional weights in terms of the ability of targeted transport investment to effectively reduce inequality, compared to possible counterfactual policies such as redistribution via the tax system.
    • Do planners’ preferences for distribution in the context of a national transport plan differ from those of the public?......Anders Bondemark, Swedish national road and transport research institute; Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics; Karin Brundell-Freij, Lund University
    • In this paper, we study differences between planners` and the public`s preferences for distribution in four dimensions in the context of transport plans. We do so by using a sample of 323 planners at the Swedish Transport Administration and 2108 members of the Swedish public. The main difference is the planners` higher valuation of aggregate benefits compared to the public. Planners also have a significantly higher valuation of transport plans that benefit rail transport. We argue that the planners` higher valuation of aggregate benefits comes for their better understanding of the attribute and an internalisation of the long-standing goal for the Swedish transport sector to be economically efficient.
    • The Inequality Aversion in the Europe: The Absolute Equal-Sacrifice Approach......Milan Ščasný, Charles University; Matěj Opatrný, Charles University
    • One of the most important tasks for economists and decision makers lies in the estimation of the social welfare function of long run policy measures. Furthermore, when it comes to the unions of countries such as the EU. We provide unique estimates of a key component, ÔÅ≠ (the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption), in the formulae for the social welfare function for thirty countries covered by the Eurostat database. The estimation of social welfare function highly impacts the allocation of funds to various investment projects. The efficiency of such investment projects is usually evaluated through costbenefit analysis (CBA). One of the key questions in CBA remains -- what is the future cost (or benefits) at present value. To answer this question, we need to determine the social discount rate (SDR), which states the rate at which society is willing to accept the inter-temporal trade-offs of consumption. The computation of the SDR follows the formula known as the Ramsey rule (Ramsey, 1928): ùëü = ÔÅ≤ + ÔÅ≠ ùëî(ùê∂), where ùëü is the social rate of return (usually called social discount rate), ÔÅ≤ is the pure rate of time preference (PRTP), ùëî(ùê∂) is the real growth rate of per capita consumption and ÔÅ≠ is the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption -- the parameter of our interest in this study. We use the revealed preference approach through acceptance of tax schedule to elicit the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption for thirty European countries. Specifically, we use the absolute equal-sacrifice approach. Given the this approach, the results are relevant only for the income taxpayers (Lambert & Naughton, 2009). We employ The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU--SILC) at household level covering the period 2004--2020 for all EU countries (except Croatia) together with Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK. Our central estimate of ÔÅ≠ for covered countries equals to 1.42 with standard error of 0.007. With few exceptional cases, all estimates for countries in our sample exceed unity with the range of 1.2 to 1.90. Our results are in line with other empirical studies (Evans, 2005; Groom & Maddison, 2019). Given the formula for SDR, our results implicate the values of SDR between 3--6 percent for cost--benefit analysis of medium- and long-term projects in the European region.
    45. Discounting [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 3

    Chair: Massimo Florio, University of Milan
    • Equity, Pareto Optimality and Long-Term Discounting of Legacy Goods......Kenneth Watson, Australian National University
    • The standard discounted cash flow model does not work well when applied to long-term <<legacy goods<<, such as a clean environment, equity goods or cultural goods. These are entitlements rather than ordinary consumer goods. One problem is that if they are monetized, by a willingness to pay analysis, for example, and their value compounded over a very long period of time, the resulting present value/future value can be implausibly large. The root of the problem is the assumption in the standard model that all benefit flows are automatically monetized and compounded at the reference group`s discount rate. This assumption derives from the Kaldor Hicks welfare function, whereas, for legacy goods in particular, Pareto`s rule applies, since they are fundamental entitlements. The upshot is that benefit-cost analysis needs to pay more careful attention to consumption and investment assumptions. In many cases, consumption is a terminal event, to be counted as a benefit at its value at the time of consumption, but not monetized at a shadow price that assumes an open-ended opportunity cost as if the benefit were continually reinvested rather than consumed. In the case of legacy goods that are in fact seldom or never monetized and are consumed when they occur, discounting/compounding may not apply or may apply only to the components that can be monetized and reinvested. Sometimes the case of legacy goods can be generalized to more ordinary financial goods. For example, aboriginal land claims based on land alienation decades or hundreds of years earlier can have implausibly large present values if it is assumed that all income from the land would have been continually reinvested at the Band`s discount rate rather than (largely) consumed when it occurred. If the fundamental equity assumption is that equal consumption by members of the reference group is of equal value, whenever it occurs, (an apple is an apple is an apple, whoever and whenever eaten), then consumption/investment assumptions must be addressed head on.
    • The welfare maximizing discount rate in a small open economy......Disa Asplund, The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
    • The controversy of which approach is more suitable for calculation of the social discount rate for public investments is both long standing and vivid. Two main approaches are the social time preference (STP) approach and the social opportunity cost (SOC) approach. Complicating issues are tax wedges, the question of whether public investments crowds out current private consumption or private saving and the possibility of myopic behavior among individuals. In this study a model that take these issues in to account is used to derive the discount rate that optimize welfare in a small open economy. The result is that even if individuals have different behavioral preferences compared to the normative preferences of the social planner and if tax wedges exist, the optimal discount rate is the market return on capital, as long as the individuals are forward looking and consistent in their behavioral preferences, and their choices are not constrained by for example liquidity restrictions.
    • Behavioral Economic insights into the Social Discount Rate......Daniel Acland, University of California at Berkeley
    • Behavioral Economic insights into the social discount rate The optimal growth approach to discounting in BCA proposes that the social discount rate be the sum of the individual rate of time preference and the predicted percentage reduction in the marginal utility of wealth, which in turn is the product of the predicted rate of per-capita GDP growth and the elasticity of marginal utility of wealth with respect to wealth. Behavioral Economics provides insight into both the discounting and marginal utility parameters. First, it is well known that elicitations of long-run discount rates are confounded by present bias and myopia. In an online survey, I have elicited what can be thought of as "unbiased" long-run discount rates, and my estimates are much smaller than those typically elicited in existing literature. Second, estimates of the elasticity of marginal utility have typically been based on risk-preference elicitation, implicitly assuming that there is one underlying utility function that determines both risk and inter-temporal choices. Recent research has demonstrated that this is not true, and that the elasticity implied by intertemporal choices is much smaller than that for choices under uncertainty. Together, these findings allow for an estimate of the social discount rate that is based on correct and unbiased elicitations of individual preferences.
    • The Limitations of the Ramsey Discounting Rule for Climate Policymaking......Kerry Krutilla, Indiana University
    • This presentation offers a critique of the Ramsey discounting formula and more generally, the use of intergenerational discounting for climate policymaking. The critique dovetails with the view that the “target-consistent” carbon-pricing method, rather than the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), is the appropriate shadow price for RIA. The SCC approach, used in RIAs in Canada, the US, and Germany, embeds choices about intergenerational tradeoffs in the selection of the discount rate. This approach reflects the belief that discounting future generation welfare is appropriate, and the belief that benefit-cost analysis is useful for determining the level of carbon emissions. An alternative is to establish emissions targets relying on political and administrative processes to make judgements about intergenerational equity. A "target-consistent" carbon price is then estimated giving the lowest abatement cost of reducing the marginal ton of carbon along the target-consistent trajectory. This approach is used in France and, since 2009, in the UK. RIAs using a target-consistent carbon price provide an economic measure of the degree to which a regulatory proposal burdens or benefits the established emissions limits. It will be argued that the use of a weighted cost-of-capital discounting approach is appropriate for this analysis. However, the governments of UK and France use discount rates based on, or consistent with, the Ramsey method. Thus, there is a potential inconsistency in the carbon-pricing method used for the analysis of climate policies and the discount rates these governments recommend.
    46. [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 4

    Organizer: Lisa Robinson, Harvard University
    Chair: Lisa Robinson, Harvard University
    • A stated preference approach to valuing reduced risk of kidney disease......Chris Dockins, U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Economics; Sandra Hoffmann, USDA Economic Research Service; Damien Dussaux, OECD; Charles Griffiths, U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Economics; Nathalie Simon, U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Economics
    • A stated preference approach to valuing reduced risk of kidney disease Chris Dockins, US EPA; Sandra Hoffmann, USDA; Damien Dussaux, OECD; Charles Griffith, US EPA; Nathalie Simon, US EPA Compromised kidney function is associated with an array of environmental contaminants and chemicals, including heavy metals, certain organic solvents, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), as well as food and waterborne pathogens. Many of these hazards are subject to regulation, or may be considered for regulation, to reduce exposures and prevent human health risks. However, valuation estimates for kidney effects that can be used in benefit-fit cost analyses are few, particularly willingness-to-pay estimates. In particular, there appears to be no willingness-to-pay estimate for reduced risk of chronic kidney disease. This presentation details a stated preference survey to value reduced risk of chronic kidney disease, filling an important gap in the valuation literature and addressing a need for applied benefits analysis for chemicals regulation. The presentation will describe the specific health endpoint for valuation, how it is linked to what we know of kidney health risks from chemicals, and the survey valuation approach. The presentation will also provide results to date.
    • Valuing Infertility......Damien Dussaux, OECD; Andrea Leiter, University of Innsbruck; Väinö Nurmi, ECHA; Christoph Rheinberger, ECHA
    • Fertility decline is a rising global health concern with some researchers warning that, if falling trends in sperm counts and changes to sexual development continue, this could even threaten human survival. Chemicals are one among several contributors to fertility decline. Indeed, an ever-increasing amount of reprotoxic substances are accumulating in the environment. This poses challenges for regulators, one of which relates to the monetization of health benefits expected from actions to curb emissions of reprotoxic substances. This paper reports on a new stated-preference study which aims at estimating a policy relevant value per statistical case of infertility. To that end, we administered a DBDC contingent valuation survey to 10,800 respondents from nine OECD countries, asking whether they would be willing to pay a monthly fee over 20 months to ensure a reduction in infertility risk from substances in food packaging material. Respondents were representative of the general population with the additional constraint that they and their spouses were of childbearing age, in a stable relationship and wished for a(nother) child within the next five years. In other words, respondents would be direct beneficiaries of safer food packaging. First results suggest a mean WTP of €19-24 per month (for a 1% risk reduction), corresponding to a value of €38,000-€48,000 per statistical case of infertility avoided (all bids converted into € and adjusted for purchasing power). Demand is strongly correlated with the randomly assigned bid amount. A split sample treatment offering either 1% or 2% in risk reduction indicated satisfactory scope sensitivity. In a next step, we will analyze differences across countries and baseline risk groups and extend the analysis to more complex models that may account for potential endogeneity in risk control and risk perception.
    • Citizen preferences: Willingness-to-pay behind a Veil of Ignorance in the context of health......Susan Chilton, Newcastle University; Morgan Beeson, Newcastle University; Emily Lancsar, Australian National University; Jytte Nielsen, Newcastle University
    • In this study, we test a survey elicitation mechanism for eliciting willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) within a citizen perspective. This perspective includes individual’s preferences over equity and efficiency directly into individual values thereby respecting consumer sovereignty in a BCA. To achieve this, we take the ‘Veil of Ignorance’ (VoI) mechanism developed in the laboratory (Beeson et al. (2019)) and apply it to a survey over health outcomes. We do this via a so‐called ‘roadmap’ – beginning with incentivised choices in the lab and ending with hypothetical choices in a stated preference survey. We elicit WTP to avoid losses in two settings: a laboratory environment where losses are financial and in a health survey where losses are non‐fatal health impairments. The severity of losses in both settings are nothing, mild, or severe. Four perspectives are compared by eliciting WTP for private risk reductions and public risk reductions in front and behind a VoI that makes the severity of loss uncertain. A pure consumer perspective is generated by eliciting WTP for a private good in front of a VoI. The citizen perspective is generated by eliciting WTP for a public good behind a VoI. We employ a convenience sample of adults (N=170) in Canberra, Australia. In the health survey, WTP is significantly larger for the citizen perspective than the consumer perspective. This is due to preferences over others (predominantly pure altruism with a preference for avoiding severe losses) and risk aversion. The experiment results largely reflect the health survey and provide supporting evidence. This promising result suggests that preferences for distribution are successfully internalised by the VeiI mechanism.
    • Willingness to pay for improved dental health......Stephen Resch, Harvard University; Lisa Robinson, Harvard University; Ben Roher, Harvard University; Ryoko Sato, Harvard University
    • The U.S. spends over $100 billion per year on improving dental health, yet little is known about the value individuals place on these improvements. As a result, it is difficult to estimate the extent to which the benefits of dental treatment outweigh its costs. To explore these values, we undertake a stated preference survey that elicits parental willingness to pay for improvements in children`s dental health. Our survey population includes members of a large dental plan, which allows us to combine data from administrative health records with the survey results to explore the effects of numerous influencing factors. The survey addresses a hypothetical but realistic intervention intended to reduce the risk of adverse dental health outcomes, particularly tooth decay that causes temporary pain and discomfort and requires invasive restorative procedures. Based on our focus group results, we define this treatment as a new rinse to be provided during routine dental visits, that is recommended by dentists, has no other effects, and requires out-of-pocket payment. We describe the treatment as available one year from now, to emphasize that it is not currently available and to encourage respondents to envision paying for and receiving the treatment after the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic subside. Conducting this survey required addressing many challenges, including respondents` concerns about the safety and efficacy of the treatment and their reluctance to pay out-of-picket for a treatment they believe should be covered by insurance. We report the results from our pilot survey and discuss the implications for further work, as well as the relevance of our approach for valuing similar highly prevalent and relatively minor health impacts.
    47. COVID-19: Vaccination Strategies [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 5

    Chair: Don Kenkel, Cornell University
    • Health and economic implications of alternative vaccine prioritization strategies......Maddalena Ferranna, Harvard University; Daniel Cadarette, Harvard University; David Bloom, Harvard University
    • Despite the rapid development, safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines are still a scarce resource in most countries around the world. The limited national supply of vaccine doses raises the question of how to best allocate them across different sociodemographic groups. The paper investigates the health and macro-economic implications of alternative vaccine prioritization srategies across multiple country-income groups. We build an integrated epidemiological-economic model that stratifies the population by age and occupation, with the risk of COVID-19 eng both age- and occupation-specific. The epidemiological component is based on a standard Sseptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with vaccination. The economic opnent considers a closed economy made of multiple sectors, and incorporates both dmn and supply shocks caused by the pandemic. We assume that the evolution of the admc is affected by economic behavior in two ways. First, fear of infection affects individuals` cnupion patterns and working location choice. Second, countries may impose an economic lokonto slow the growth of cases and reduce the risk of infection. We assume that the vaciemy be allocated based on the age and the occupational sector of individuals, and we consdrdfferent combinations of those characteristics. For each prioritization strategy, we compuetenumber of deaths, the GDP loss and the welfare loss using a value-per-statistical- life approach. The model is calibrated to different country-income profiles (i.e., high-income countr,mdle-income country, low-income country). We find that the optimal vaccine prioritzto strategy is country-specific, and it depends, among other factors, on the socio- demographic structure of the population, the sectoral composition of the economy, and the quality ftehealthcare system. The WHO-recommended age-based strategy averts the largest number ofdah in most scenarios independently of the country type, and yields relatively low GDP losses
    • SBCA_P191097_1638625931.pdf THE EFFECT OF COOPERATIVE MEMBERSHIP ON HEALTH RISK REDUCTION FROM COVID-19 PANDEMIC AMONG RICE FARMERS IN NIGERIA THE EFFECT OF COOPERATIVE MEMBERSHIP ON HEALTH RISK REDUCTION FROM COVID-19 PANDEMIC AMONG RICE FARMERS IN NIGERIA abstract The recurring nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent discovery of the Omicron variant in Nigeria, coupled with concerns about the specific roles and contributions of social institutions in redressing the spread of the virus, prompted the need to ascertain the roles of agricultural cooperatives in alleviating the effect of the pandemic among their members. Thus, this study will determine: rice farmers` willingness to pay for health risk reduction from COVID- 19; value of statistical life as a result of the virus and the effects of cooperative membership on health risk reduction from the virus. Three hundred respondents are being sampled, comprising 150 each of cooperative and non-cooperative rice farmers in Patigi and Edu Local Government Areas of Kwara State, Nigeria. To achieve its objectives, the study will employ descriptive statistics, health risk reduction valuation technique/value of statistical life approach, propensity score matching and t-test. The outcome of the study will reveal cooperative farmers` WTP for COVID-19, the value of statistical life resulting from the virus and the drivers of WTP and health risk reduction from the virus. Outcome of the study will complement the efforts of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control in understanding and identifying viable instruments and socio-based prophylactic measures useful in redressing the scourge of the virus and reducing morbidity and mortality. Key words: Value of statistical life, health risk reduction, agricultural cooperatives.
    • City and Regional Demand for Vaccines Whose Supply Arises from Competition in a Bertrand Duopoly......Amit Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology
    • There is some research now on how market competition between firms affects the development of vaccines. This notwithstanding, to the best of our knowledge, there is virtually no theoretical research on how alternate economic conditions such as changes in cost uncertainty and changes in the nature of the strategic competition between firms influence the incentives to conduct research and development (R&D) in the context of vaccine development. Given this lacuna in the literature, we study a one-period model of an aggregate economy composed of cities and regions that demand vaccines designed to fight a pandemic such as Covid-19. The supply of vaccines is the outcome of Bertrand competition between two firms ùê¥ and ùêµ. The marginal cost of producing the vaccine for both firms is stochastic and drawn from a uniform distribution. In this setting, we perform three tasks and my presentation will emphasize the salience of these three tasks. First, we describe the equilibrium pricing strategies of the two firms and then we compute their mean ex ante profits. Second, we permit both firms to conduct risky R&D and then determine the conditions under which only one firm engages in R&D and conditions under which both do. Finally, we focus on applications which mimic the effect of increased competition and then analyze the impact of this increased competition on social welfare in the aggregate economy.
  • Don Kenkel, Cornell University;
  • 48. Who Wins and Who Loses: Inequality and Regulation [Plenary]
    Monday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Lisa Robinson, Harvard University
    Chair: Cary Coglianese, University of Pennsylvania
    49. Climate, Hunger, Farm Income, Rural Communities: Benefits and Costs of USDA Programs [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 2

    Organizer: Sandra Hoffmann, USDA Economic Research Service
    Chair: Lynn Karoly, RAND
    • Farm Income Support Since 2018: Farm Bill and Ad-Hoc Programs......Stephanie Rosch, Congressional Research Service, U.S. Library of Congress
    • A variety of programs authorized under the 2018 farm bill and other permanent legislation ‚Äì referred toas the farm safety net programs ‚Äì support farm incomes in times of low farm prices, natural disasters, and other adverse conditions that may limit farmers` ability to produce and market crops and livestock. These programs provide a variety of direct and indirect benefits for farmers and the agricultural sector more broadly ‚Äì some of which may be difficult to quantify. Since 2018, Congress and USDA have authorized a number of ad hoc programs that also support farm incomes, and in some years, the combined payments from these ad-hoc programs exceeded the combined payments provided by farm safety net programs. These ad hoc programs addressed a wider range of risks than are covered in the farm safety net programs, provided benefits to more farmers than typically participate in farm safety net programs, and required taxpayers to assume a larger share of farm sector financial risk than they assume for the farm safety net programs. This presentation reviews the farm safety net programs and major ad-hoc support programs since 2018; discusses the potential for these programs to support farm incomes, incentivize supply of agricultural commodities, avoid farm bankruptcies, and address other outcomes relevant for agricultural policy-making; and highlights issues related to measuring the costs and benefits of these programs.
    • Seeking resilience in the food and agriculture sector- Climate Smart Agriculture and the potential of the Farm Bill......Ann Bartuska, Environmental Defense Fund
    • SBCA P191081 1638585652.pdf Seeking resilience in the food and agriculture sector- Climate Smart Agriculture and the potential of the Farm Bill 1. Title: Seeking resilience in the food and agriculture sector- Climate Smart Agriculture and the potential of the Farm Bill Presenter: Ann M. Bartuska, Senior Advisor, Resources for the Future The Farm Bill is a powerful tool to set agricultural policy, and as USDA scales up activities in support of climate adaptation and mitigation ‚Äì or Climate Smart Agriculture, it is not surprising that the Farm Bill serves as the policy skeletal structure for implementation. A key principle is to maintain and enhance productivity and resiliency of natural and agricultural ecosystem function. The conservation title of the Farm Bill includes numerous programs (e.g. EQIP, CSP, ACEP, etc) that facilitate landowner activities that promote clean water, enhance pollinator habitat, healthy soils and reduced air pollution. The application of these same programs to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to promote carbon sequestration is a logical evolution of conservation goals. This presentation will explore the policy context of Climate Smart Agriculture, including provisions from the Build Back Better legislation, and the utility of Farm Bill programs to accomplish meaningful outcomes.
    • Benefits and Costs of Selected Broadband Initiative Program Projects......John Pender, USDA Economic Research Service
    • Promoting broadband access in rural areas is a high priority for the Federal Government, as evidenced by more than $50 billion already invested in Federal broadband programs and $65 billion for broadband programs in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. Despite the high priority of these programs, little research has investigated their benefits and costs. This paper estimates the benefits and costs of selected projects supported by the Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP), the largest rural broadband program implemented to date by the USDA Rural Utilities Service (RUS). The benefits of BIP projects are estimated using difference-in-difference estimation of program impacts on residential property values. We use RUS data on project service areas (PSAs) and characteristics, CoreLogic data on the characteristics and sale values of houses sold before and after establishment of the BIP, and spatial regression discontinuity and spatial gradient methods. The projects investigated are those for which we have sufficient observations within and near PSAs to allow estimation with these methods. Preliminary analysis for five BIP projects indicates a large range of impacts of BIP on house sale prices, with point estimates ranging from $2,300 to $26,100 increase in mean house values (estimates are statistically significant for three of the five projects). Using RUS data on the capital costs and number of houses in the PSAs of each project, we estimate net benefits of the selected projects ranging from -$2,700 to +$26,000 per house in BIP PSAs. The largest net benefits per house were observed for a low-cost project providing fixed wireless service and the smallest net benefits were for a high-cost project providing fiber optic service. Further analysis will investigate the robustness of these findings to alternative statistical specifications and tests, and the benefits and costs of additional BIP projects. Keywords: rural broadband programs, benefits, costs
    • It’s Not Just the Cost of a Meal: Why the Debates about Federal Nutrition Programs Need to Include Cost-Benefit Analysis......Elaine Waxman, Urban Institute
    • 1) A variety of programs authorized under the 2018 farm bill and other permanent legislation ‚Äì referred to as the farm safety net programs ‚Äì support farm incomes in times of low farm prices, natural disasters, and other adverse conditions that may limit farmers` ability to produce and market crops and livestock. These programs provide a variety of direct and indirect benefits for farmers and the agricultural sector more broadly ‚Äì some of which may be difficult to quantify. Since 2018, Congress and USDA have authorized a number of ad hoc programs that also support farm incomes, and in some years, the combined payments from these ad-hoc programs exceeded the combined payments provided by farm safety net programs. These ad hoc programs addressed a wider range of risks than are covered in the farm safety net programs, provided benefits to more farmers than typically participate in farm safety net programs, and required taxpayers to assume a larger share of farm sector financial risk than they assume for the farm safety net programs. This presentation reviews the farm safety net programs and major ad-hoc support programs since 2018; discusses the potential for these programs to support farm incomes, incentivize supply of agricultural commodities, avoid farm bankruptcies, and address other outcomes relevant for agricultural policy-making; and highlights issues related to measuring the costs and benefits of these programs. 2) The Farm Bill is a powerful tool to set agricultural policy, and as USDA scales up activities in support of climate adaptation and mitigation ‚Äì or Climate Smart Agriculture, it is not surprising that the Farm Bill serves as the policy skeletal structure for implementation. A key principle is to maintain and enhance productivity and resiliency of natural and agricultural ecosystem function. The conservation title of the Farm Bill includes numerous programs (e.g. EQIP, CSP, ACEP, etc) that facilitate landowner activities that promote clean water, enhance pollinator habitat, healthy soils and reduced air pollution. The application of these same programs to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to promote carbon sequestration is a logical evolution of conservation goals. This presentation will explore the policy context of Climate Smart Agriculture, including provisions from the Build Back Better legislation, and the utility of Farm Bill programs to accomplish meaningful outcomes. 3) Millions of Americans participate in federal nutrition programs each year. In 2021, more than 42 million people were enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and more than 30 million children were enrolled in school meals. Although these programs are often discussed in terms of their costs to the federal budget, a growing body of evidence suggests that focusing only on program-specific budgetary implications leads to an incomplete understanding of the overall benefits of using federal dollars to combat food insecurity. Recent research suggests that the benefits of investments in programs like SNAP, school meals and WIC, which serves pre- and post-partum mothers and young children, may show up in other program savings, such as health care expenditures, and serve as an economic stabilizer in periods of economic downturn. This presentation will discuss what we have learned about the importance of cost benefit analysis inassessing federal nutrition programs and where gaps in our understanding remain. Increased focus on cost-benefit analysis is important, given a number of changes to federal nutrition programs that have taken place during the pandemic or may be taken up during the next Farm Bill debate. 4) Promoting broadband access in rural areas is a high priority for the Federal Government, as evidenced by more than $50 billion already invested in Federal broadband programs and $65 billion for broadband programs in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. Despite the high priority of these programs, little research has investigated their benefits and costs. This paper estimates the benefits and costs of selected projects supported by the Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP), the largest rural broadband program implemented to date by the USDA Rural Utilities Service (RUS). The benefits of BIP projects are estimated using difference-in-difference estimation of program impacts on residential property values. We use RUS data on project service areas (PSAs) and characteristics, CoreLogic data on the characteristics and sale values of houses sold before and after establishment of the BIP, and spatial regression discontinuity and spatial gradient methods. The projects investigated are those for which we have sufficient observations within and near PSAs to allow estimation with these methods. Preliminary analysis for five BIP projects indicates a large range of impacts of BIP on house sale prices, with point estimates ranging from $2,300 to $26,100 increase in mean house values (estimates are statistically significant for three of the five projects). Using RUS data on the capital costs and number of houses in the PSAs of each project, we estimate net benefits of the selected projects ranging from -$2,700 to +$26,000 per house in BIP PSAs. The largest net benefits per house were observed for a low-cost project providing fixed wireless service and the smallest net benefits were for a high-cost project providing fiber optic service. Further analysis will investigate the robustness of these findings to alternative statistical specifications and tests, and the benefits and costs of additional BIP projects.
    50. Recent Developments in Equity in BCA [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 3

    Organizer: Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University
    Chair: Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University
    • Incorporating Equity Concerns in Regulation......Caroline Cecot, George Mason University; Robert Hahn, University of Oxford
    • U.S. regulatory agencies have been required to consider the distributional impacts of regulations for decades. This paper examines the extent to which such analysis is done for particular groups, and it provides recommendations for improving the analysis. In particular, we analyze 168 costbenefit analyses (CBAs) prepared by the federal government from 2003 to 2019. Only two CBAs‚Äìone supporting a regulation and the other supporting its removal‚Äìcalculated expected net benefits for a particular group. Furthermore, less than 20 percent of CBAs calculate some benefits for a group, while about 10 percent calculate some costs. We cannot reject the hypothesis that there is no difference between the Obama and Trump administrations in terms of their treatment of equity using our measures; however, they both appear to be better than the George W. Bush administration. We provide recommendations for improving distributional analysis. Given the current state of the art, however, we argue for giving the agency in charge of regulating a fair amount of discretion in how distributional concerns should be weighed in regulatory decisions.
    • Equitable Mortality Risk Benefits......Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University; W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt University
    • Given the prominent role of policies directed at mortality risks, meaningful efforts to foster equity will involve either the explicit or implicit valuation of these risks. Our emphasis is consequently different than that in other equity treatments that usually are in terms of risk level outcomes. This article follows the equitable policy approach advocated in Viscusi (Pricing Lives, 2018), which is that the focus of equity policies should be in terms of valuations rather than risk levels. In particular, the tradeoff rates reflected in expenditures to reduce mortality risks should be the principal matter of concern. This principle is more general in that concerns for equity should not be directed at generating equitable outcomes but rather equitable benefit levels. Current benefit assessment practices using average VSL amounts have redistributional impacts whenever the average willingness-to-pay amounts diverge from the VSL. This paper focuses on empirical estimates based on differences by income and age as well as the implications of these estimates for equity concerns linked to race and gender. Using these estimates, it is feasible to construct the baseline case for what the distributional weights are under current practices. The paper also examines different approaches that might be used to establish distributional weights as well as the challenges that such efforts may encounter. Design of future practices for regulatory oversight may represent a best case scenario for implementing sound economic policies. Existing government policies and health care practices are less soundly grounded.
    • Investigating Whether Agencies Consider Distributional Effects and Equity in Regulatory Analysis......Mark Febrizio, George Washington University
    • Since August 1993, Executive Order 12866 has required agencies not only to conduct analysis of the benefits and costs of <<significant<< regulatory actions, but to consider <<distributive impacts and equity<< in selecting among regulatory alternatives. How often, and in what manner, have agencies complied with this requirement? Robinson, Hammitt, and Zeckhauser (2016) provide the most extensive review of existing agency practices on distributional analysis of regulations, finding that federal agencies do not fully account for the distribution of benefits and costs in their final rules. While this deep dive into 24 regulations offers a clear picture of whether agencies fully comply with the provisions of executive orders and guidance, it does not capture the broader frequency of how rules consider distribution and equity across agencies, even if partially or informally. To fill this research gap, this paper will use text analysis tools to examine the regulatory preambles of significant final rules published in the Federal Register since 1995. This approach will allow us to develop quantitative estimates of the frequency with which agencies include distributional considerations in their analysis, drawing conclusions based on thousands of regulations aimed at a wide range of social goals over a 25-year period. These data would also allow us to answer such questions as whether different regulatory characteristics correspond to more regular distributive analysis. By establishing a baseline of historical agency practice, this project will lay a foundation for future assessments of the Biden administration`s initiative to reinvigorate distributional analysis.
    • The Military VSL......Ryan Sullivan, Naval Postgraduate School
    • This paper provides an extensive review on the theory and practical applications of value per statistical life (VSL) studies in military settings. In contrast to other agencies such as the EPA, DOT, and HHS, the Department of Defense does not require the use of VSL estimates in their benefit-cost analyses. This paper makes a recommendation to change this policy and provides an appropriate framework to make these decisions. A meta-analysis is conducted to provide a specific VSL estimate to use in future Department of Defense benefit-cost analyses.
  • Thomas Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University;
  • 51. AmeriCorps Return on Investment Studies: Innovation and Insight [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 4

    Organizers: Benjamin Miller, ICF; Lily Zandniapour, AmeriCorps;
    Chair: Steve Lize, Pew Charitable Trusts
    52. Benefit Cost Analysis and Tribal Water Rights [Roundtable Discussion]
    Monday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Michael Hanemann, Arizona State University
    Chair: Michael Hanemann, Arizona State University
    The United State Federal Government acts as a trustee for Native American Tribes. In the Southwest, an especially important part of this trustee responsibility is to ensure that Tribes secure their water rights under the Winters doctrine. In this roundtable discussion panelists will explore the role of benefit cost analysis in the quantification of Tribes’ water rights. Panelists will discuss the extent to which and under what conditions Tribes need to provide economic justification for their water rights claims. Panelists will also discuss the role of benefit cost analysis in the estimation of damages that Tribes may have incurred if the US Federal Government fails in its trustee responsibilities with respect to water rights. Panelists will examine the nature of the trustee’s responsibility, and the types of losses that Tribes could incur as a result of the US Federal Government’s planning failures.
    • Panelist......Joe Kalt, Harvard Kennedy School
    • Panelist......Richard Carson, University of California, San Diego
    • Panelist......Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • Panelist......Rhett Larson, Arizona State University
    • Panelist......Catherine McManus, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
    53. Accounting for health equity in distributional analyses [Roundtable Discussion]
    Monday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 5

    Organizer: Aaron Kearsley, Department of Health and Human Services
    Chair: Aaron Kearsley, Department of Health and Human Services
    There has been a growing emphasis on the importance of accounting for equity in analyses of regulatory impacts. The President’s January 20, 2021 Memo on Modernizing Regulatory Review, as well as OMB’s April 26, 2021 memo on the implementation of the American Rescue Plan Act, prompt agencies to account for distributional consequences in regulatory analyses to ensure that regulations appropriately benefit and do not disproportionately burden underserved or underrepresented communities. E.O. 13985 on Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government and E.O. 14008 on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad also provide directives for agencies to consider distributional effects of policies. What resources are available to a regulatory economist seeking to better account for the distributional impacts of a federal policy? This roundtable discussion brings HHS and FDA economists and policy analysts together to discuss data sources and methodologies that allow distributional analyses across gender, age, race, and ethnicity. We will identify potential data sources, describe methodological approaches, and discuss how data can be utilized in distributional analyses. Finally, we will provide an example of a distributional analysis through an equity lens and discuss paths forward.
    • Panelist......Emily Galloway, U.S. Food and Drug Administration
    • Panelist......Julia Marasteanu, US Food and Drug Administration
    • Panelist......Janet Peckham, US Food and Drug Administration
    • Panelist......Carolyn Wolff, US Food and Drug Administration
    54. COVID-19: Facemasks, Mandates, and Temporary Standards. [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 1

    Chair: Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon
    • Private and public benefits and costs of face masks during a prolonged pandemic......Steve Newbold, University of Wyoming; David Finnoff, University of Wyoming
    • Cloth or surgical face masks are among the most common forms of personal protective equipment that people can use to reduce the risks of infection to themselves and others during a respiratory viral epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic, mask guidelines and mandates have been used by national and local authorities in the United States and elsewhere to help slow the spread of infections. We use a mathematical model to examine the private and public health benefits of masks during what we refer to as a “prolonged epidemic,” which may include multiple waves of infections or may extend into an endemic disease if infection or vaccination does not confer permanent immunity. The model accounts for the differential effectiveness of masks for the wearer (“receptor control”) and for others (“source control”), which influences the degree of misalignment between the personal and public benefits of masks. We calibrate the model using published estimates of key parameters for COVID-19, and we use it to identify the disease severity, the level of acquired immunity in the population, and the private opportunity costs of masks under which partial or complete mask mandates would be economically efficient. The model provides a template for designing adaptive mask policies that could be tailored to local circumstances and adjusted over time as community rates of infection wax and wane during the course of a prolonged epidemic. Numerical experiments with the model suggest that, under some conditions when universal mask mandates are optimal, partial mandates or less than full compliance could have negative net social benefits. We also use the model to show how an expanded opportunity set—specifically, introducing a partially effective treatment in addition to pre-existing preventative measures—can lead to a new equilibrium with higher infection rates and resultant morbidity and mortality than before the treatment was available.
    • The Political Economy of COVID-19: Facemask Dilemma in the US......Dohyeong Kim, University of Texas - Dallas; Hanna Shin, University of Texas - Dallas; Richard Carson, University of California, San Diego; Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Michael Hanemann, Arizona State University
    • Despite widespread vaccination for COVID-19 available in the US, mask wearing is still considered as one of the few effective interventions to control the transmission of COVID-19. There are people who wear a face mask and people who don‚`Äô`t, mostly due to the difference in behavior driven by political ideology. However, we argue that more fruitful policy discussions recognize those who believe the government should require face masks are distinct from those who are currently wearing them. According to a nationally representative sample of 3,979 respondents from the YouGov internet panel of US households interviewed between August and October using a questionnaire we designed, a substantial majority of Americans (60%) favor a masking requirement and are themselves wearing masks. Those opposing a mask mandate and not currently wearing masks comprise 13% of the American public. In contrast, 17% oppose a mask mandate, but are currently wearing one. The most interesting group are the 10% of Americans who not currently wearing a mask but who favor a mask mandate. In this paper, we aim to explore the complex political economic dynamics behind factors affecting their face mask wearing behavior and their perception and attitudes towards mask mandates. We first ran a multinomial logit model to estimate the likelihood of being included in one of the four groups with the set of covariates. Then, we conducted a series of general structural equation models with four latent variables (knowledge on COVID-19, risk experiences, politics and financial condition) where each of the four latent variables is a function of different sets of variables that are in. Our study is expected to guide a better understanding of the mismatch between mask wearing behavior and compliance to the mask mandate, which will help the public health authorities to devise policies regarding mask wearing as an effective intervention to COVID-19.
    • A Mortality Risk Analysis of OSHA’s COVID-19 Emergency Temporary Standards......James Broughel, Mercatus Center at George Mason University; Andrew Baxter, George Mason University
    • A Mortality Risk Analysis of OSHA`s COVID-19 Emergency Temporary Standards By James Broughel (presenter) and Andrew Baxter In 2021, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) issued two emergencytemporary standard regulations related to COVID-19 hazards in the workplace. One regulation coveredworkers in the healthcare sector, while the second regulation, which to-date has not gone into effectdue to a court injunction, would have covered workers at firms with 100 or more employees. This paperconducts an original mortality risk analysis of these two regulations. Mortality analysis evaluateswhether regulatory or other actions increase mortality risk on balance. Taking OSHA`s estimates of thecosts and health benefits of its rules at face value, the first regulation related to COVID-19 hazards in thehealthcare sector is found to reduce risk initially but increase it over a longer time horizon. The secondregulation is found to unambiguously reduce risk. However, OSHA`s economic analysis is a feasibilityanalysis that does not purport to comprehensively evaluate costs, which may make these estimatesmisleading. Therefore, we review some of the underlying assumptions in OSHA`s analysis that may change the outcomes of the mortality analysis. We conclude that mortality analysis should be incorporated as a regular feature of agency regulatory analysis, including at OSHA, an agency thatcurrently has legal limits on its ability to conduct benefit-cost analysis.
    • Benefits and Costs of U.S. Employer COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates......Lisa Robinson, Harvard University; Maddalena Ferranna, Harvard University; Daniel Cadarette, Harvard University; Michael Eber, Harvard University; David Bloom, Harvard University
    • In 2021, the Biden Administration issued five COVID-19 vaccine mandates, including executive orders addressing Federal employees and contractors and regulations addressing health care, Head Start, and other private sector workers. Much attention has been paid to the legal authority for these mandates, but their impacts have not been fully assessed. We address this research gap, estimating the direct costs and benefits likely to accrue if the vaccination requirements were implemented as intended. We compare the costs of vaccine delivery and associated lost work time to the benefits of averted morbidity and mortality, considering the impacts on both those who become vaccinated and their close contacts. We estimate benefits under two scenarios. One considers only the then-known variants; the second incorporates the effects of the omicron variant. In addition to providing insights into the effects of these mandates alone and in combination, this work highlights key uncertainties worthy of further investigation. It also provides insights into the impacts of vaccination requirements in other settings, including state, local, and private sector decisions as well as mandates implemented in other countries.
    55. Unrest, Drugs, Borders, and National Defense [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 3

    Chair: Amy Sharp, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
    • Costs of Drug-involved and Drug-attributable Crime in Singapore......Euston Quah, Nanyang Technological University; Wai Mun Chia, Nanyang Technological University Singapore; Tsiat Siong Tan, Singapore University of Social Sciences
    • This study aims to estimate the costs of drug involved crime and of drug-attributable crime in Singapore by drug type in 2010 and 2015. We define drug-involved crimes as offenses that are committed by offenders who use illicit drug at the time of crime. Drug attributable crimes, on the other hand, are offenses committed by offenders who attribute their offenses, either entirely or partially, to their illicit drug use. Comparing the distributions of the costs of each drug with their prevalence rates would provide relevant evidence to public policy makers to focus their interventions on the reduction of certain types of drug use more effectively. The economic valuation was conducted using a survey on inmates in 2017, and with data provided by the Central Narcotics Bureau of Singapore. The aggregate figures of costs of drug-involved crime are found to be S$1,164.14 million and S$1,279.91 in 2010 and 2015, respectively, amounting to 0.36%(0.19%) and 0.31%(0.19%) of the country`s gross domestic product. This economic burden is equivalent to a per capita cost of $309 in 2010 and S$328 in 2015. The costs of drug-attributable crime are S$610.79 million (0.19% of GDP) in 2010 and S$765.66 million (0.19% of GDP) in 2015.
    • STATUS AND SOCIAL UNREST; COSTS AND BENEFITS......Richard Zerbe, University of Washington
    • ABSTRACT The role of status seeking in causing social unrest, in increasing inequality, and in the analysis of slavery and similar phenomena have been neglected. This paper shows that status considerations can contribute both understanding of social phenomena such as happiness, crime and poverty and suggestions for a society in which vertical and horizontal status are balanced and in which happiness and well- being are greater. Social measures that could achieve a more balanced type of status seeking between vertical and horizontal status can increase happiness, and reduce social unrest and crime. Such measures available through cultural and institutional changes that focuses more on the labor effects of technology and on the reduction of vertical status seeking. That is, the benefits of achieving a balanced status society are far greater than their costs. I show that present social unrest in Western societies are due to dysfunctional status systems such as that which supported slavery. Thus, even while wealth and income are increasing in, e.g. the United States, happiness is falling due to declines in vertical status measures by social subgroups. In recent years there has been an outpouring of income and wealth inequity literature, exemplified by the work of economists, such as Piketty and others (e.g. Saez and Zucman, 2020), by sociologists (e.g. Birkelund, and Wilborg,) and by other disciplines (Graeber and Wengrow. In Europe and the U.S., the income share, which is related to status, of the top 10% has risen while the income share of the bottom 50% has fallen. I suggest that status inequality which is related to income and wealth inequality underlies wealth and income inequality and is even more important in explaining social unrests. For the United States and much of Europe rising status inequality will continue to lead to social unrest, until this unrest results in a reshaping of status. I distinguish vertical and horizontal societies and find that inequality of income and wealth is higher in vertical status societies than for horizontal status societies. Third, we suggest that societies in which members are seeking power for selfish motives are more unequal in income and wealth than for those societies in which power corresponds to horizontal status. Fourth, I show status inequality as an underlying source of the U.S. Civil War. Fifth, when increases in status inequity reaches some level, there will be a tendency towards social unrest that can only be resolved with power sharing by elites by autocratic suppression or by revolution. Finally, I suggest the costs of status inequity beyond some point are far greater than its benefits.
    • US Border Management: Evaluating Alternative Border Technologies......Scott Farrow, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
    • A benefit-cost analysis is presented for US border management. The equivalent decision analysis model is also presented organized by outcomes instead of cross-cutting consequences. The arrival of initially inadmissible people at the border is a poorly understood process. A base year calibration for 2017 is chosen against which alternative technologies could be assessed. The model is analogous to the economics of pollution control with costs of control and costs avoided from implementing controls. Technologies typically prevent illegal activities by apprehending people and materials and allowing legal activities. Controversial issues arise. Among these are whose values count and the value of: a) interrupting a criminal career, b) legal asylum, c) differential security across countries, d) impacts of child management, e) deaths of foreign nationals, f) fiscal costs illegal entrants, g) impacts labor and goods markets, and h) income distributional weighting. The preliminary results indicate an expected net present value (ENPV) per initially inadmissible person of $75,000 in the base case. The total ENPV for the 2017 cohort is $46.8 billion, the product of the number of managed cases times the per person value. There is significant room for improvement. The residual cohort cost of those entering illegally is $19.8 billion. Among the most important outcomes (from decision-analysis) and impacts (from benefit-cost analysis) are non-criminal removals, legal asylees, and fiscal costs avoided. The results are sensitive to a number of parameters; among them the cost of a career criminal, the proportion of a US Value of a Statistical Life attributed to foreigners, comparative security, and income of legal asylees.
  • Amy Sharp, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission;
  • 56. Developing a Sector Specific Framework for valuing green infrastructure and public spaces (New South Wales, Australia) [Roundtable Discussion]
    Monday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 2

    Organizer: Alice Meng, Department of Planning and Environment
    Chair: Steve Hartley, NSW Department of Planning and Environment
    The New South Wales (NSW) Department of Planning and Environment (the Department) is developing a Sector Specific framework for valuing green infrastructure and public spaces (the Framework). The Framework will be a companion to the NSW Government Guide to Cost Benefit Analysis. COVID-19 has demonstrated the importance of accessible and quality green infrastructure and public spaces to community wellbeing and resilience. Quality green and public spaces provide important physical and mental health benefits and play an important role in maintaining biodiversity in urban areas, mitigating urban heat island effects and increasing resilience to climate change. The benefits of green infrastructure and public spaces can be complex to quantify and monetise compared to more traditional forms of grey infrastructure, which can result in sub-optimal decisions and under-investment in green infrastructure and public spaces. The Framework aims to provide a standardised, robust and comprehensive approach to support investment decisions and to help overcome methodological barriers for considering green infrastructure and public spaces in capital planning projects. The Framework is being developed with input from subject matter experts and practitioners from across the NSW Government and other jurisdictions, who helped identify common benefits categories, and current valuation methodologies. These experts also helped confirm the suitability of the final methodologies and values as part of a collaborative workshop approval process. The final Framework will be a ready source of preferred methodologies and parameter values for measuring green infrastructure and public spaces benefits. This will help better integrate green infrastructure and public spaces into future planning and infrastructure decisions. The Framework is expected to be in a trial phase by early 2022. The Department will facilitate a roundtable session about how the Framework has been developed, early experiences in applying the Framework to projects, and lessons learned from the development process.
    • Panelist......Coralie Williams, Infrastructure Australia
    • Panelist......Joanna Hole, NSW Department of Planning and Environment
    • Panelist......Kieron Hendicott, Infrastructure NSW
    • Panelist......Ophelia Cowell, NSW Treasury
    • Panelist......Sorada Tapsuwan, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
    57. Benefit-Cost Analysis in the Footsteps of George S. Tolley: In Memoriam [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 8:00 pm-9:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Don Kenkel, Cornell University
    Chair: Glenn Blomquist, University of Kentucky
    • Air Pollution in Delhi: Policy Analysis and Suggestions......Vinod Thomas, National University of Singapore
    • The hallmark of George Tolley`s contributions was a blend of rigorous analytics and timely policy application. He applied cost benefit analysis empirically to many problems, and issue of pollution and externalities stand out among them. His 1974 landmark paper The Welfare Economics of City Bigness has been highly influential in bringing out both scale economies of urbanization but also often overwhelming negative externalities. Delhi is a case in point of which this paper, focusing on air pollution from transportation, offers policy suggestions. Triangulation of India`s experience, the experiences of Bangkok, Beijing, Mexico City and London, places George has worked on, and a survey of expert opinion, suggests a three-pronged approach. One is stronger regulatory emission control on vehicles, with stricter enforcement of policies, tighter penalties, and consequences. A second is a ramping up of investment in and planning of public transport to enable a slowing of private vehicles on the road. A third is usage of electric cars aided by subsidies and investments. George encouraged rigorous valuation of nonmarket goods and externalities and government policies to help internalize them, stressing that these policies need to be efficient. This paper would show both an appreciation of market forces, and the need to intervene efficiently when negative externalities are not automatically corrected.
    • The Impact of Pictorial Cigarette Warnings on Consumer Welfare: A Behavioral Benefit-Cost Analysis......Don Kenkel, Cornell University
    • George Tolley made important contributions to the benefit-cost analysis of health policies, including the use of stated preference data. In this study, we use stated preference data to conduct a behavioral benefit-cost analysis of pictorial cigarette health warnings. We use data on smokers‚`Äô` stated preferences, reactions to warnings, health information, and internalities. We conducted online discrete choice experiments (DCEs) on two samples of 600 smokers each. The DCEs presented subjects with different combinations of product attributes; the subjects made hypothetical choices between combustible cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and smoking cessation. Each time the subjects chose between the alternatives, one sample was exposed to a new pictorial cigarette warning and the other sample was exposed to one of the current text warnings. We also collected novel data on subjects‚`Äô` willingness to pay for cigarette pack covers. The 2009 Tobacco Control Act required pictorial health warnings on cigarette packaging and advertising. After more than a decade of development and delays due to legal challenges, the requirement is scheduled to take effect in January 2023. The impact of the required pictorial warnings on consumer welfare will depend not only on whether they work to decrease combustible cigarette demand, but also on how they work. The pictorial warnings improve consumer welfare when they work as an informational nudge. However, pictorial warnings might instead hurt consumer welfare. First, the pictorial cigarette warnings might have spillover effects to discourage consumer demand for e-cigarettes, which are a less harmful alternative to combustible cigarettes. Second, by evoking emotional reactions such as fear or disgust, the pictorial warnings might have direct effects to decrease consumer utility. Our novel data on consumer willingness to pay for cigarette pack covers that allow them to avoid seeing the warnings allows us to estimate the monetary value of the disutility from pictorial warnings.
    • Contracting for Urban Bus Services in the U.S.: The Least-Subsidy Bidding Approach and Universal Service......Rick Geddes, Cornell University
    • Contracting out of public services has garnered widespread academic interest. Recent research focuses on the pros and cons of alternative forms of contracting. One compelling issue is the use of competitive bidding as a way of contracting out urban bus services. Historically, the US has held the main urban bus operations to public companies. Nevertheless, we want to shed light on an approach we view as underappreciated: Least-Subsidy Bidding (LSB). LSB contracting is one type of reverse auction under which providers compete for monopolistic rights given a certain predetermined level of service for services that require government subsidies to operate. Such auctions have been used in other countries, for example the UK and Australia, to spur the participation of private companies in the provision of urban bus services. Via competitive bidding, LSB helps taxpayers obtain the greatest value per dollar of subsidy expended. We explore the upsides (and shortcomings) of the LSB approach with an application to urban bus systems in which farebox revenue is insufficient to cover operation and maintenance costs and would thus not attract private operators absent subsidies.
    • Professor George S. Tolley: A respectable and worldly scholar and a humble and loving elder......Yih-chyi Chuang, National Chengchi University, Taiwan
    • From 1988 to1993, I was studying for a Ph.D. at the University of Chicago. It was a time of studying abroad that was worth remembering and cherishing in my life. In addition to the price theory taught by Professor Gary S. Becker and the income theory of Professor Robert E. Lucas Jr., the cost-benefit analysis of Professor Arnold C. Harberger and Professor George S. Tolley impressed me the most and affected my future academic work. The concept and application of cost-benefit analysis have always played an important role in my teaching and research. Professor Tolley is also a teacher and friend to me, and I am very grateful for his teaching and assistance in life. Professor Tolley is humble, honest, sincere, and helpful. He also takes good care of and loves students. He is always able to patiently teach and assist me during my study years in Chicago. If price theory is the quintessence of economics and the traditional symbol of Chicago School, then the cost-benefit analysis is a practical and useful approach for policy analysis. Price mechanism provides incentives for people`s behavior, but individual self-interested pursuits often deviate from altruistic thinking, which leads to the deadweight loss of social welfare and a lack of social justice. Human self-interest and greed are the main causes of man-made disasters today. How to integrate altruistic motives and self-interested price incentives will be the key to saving capitalism from its decay and whether it can develop sustainably. Altruism is the common core value of Eastern and Western philosophies, but how to promote the compatibility of personal altruistic nature and self-interested instinct? How to incorporate and measure external benefits, including social benefits of altruism and social losses of selfishness, will be the focus and contribution of future cost-benefit analysis. The relationship between man and society and between man and nature will be an indispensable part of measuring external benefits.
    58. International Issues in Benefit-Cost Analysis [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Monday | 8:00 pm-9:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Brad Wong, Copenhagen Consensus Center
    • Sunshine and Sausages: Transparency, equity and pragmatism in CBA practice with particular reference to Australia and New Zealand......Robert Smith, University of New South Wales
    • Sunlight and sausages: Transparency, equity and pragmatism in CBA reporting with particular reference to Australia and New Zealand Robert Smith, East Economics Sydney, Australia, rsmitheast, 61 419464796 <<Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants<< (commonly attributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson) Louis Brandeis 1913 <<Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made<< (commonly attributed to Bismarck) John Godfrey Saxe 1869 A trade-off exists between the options of complete disclosure of the basis of public policy and investment decision and the fear that excessive scrutiny and criticism will stifle risk, innovation and unpopular but necessary discussion and choices. In a post-truth era where, distrust for facts is rife, transparency has an additional risk of creating fuel for malicious distortion and deliberate misinformation rather than positive debate, building consensus and informed decisions. A practical balance lies somewhere between the ideal and the realpolitik. The paper looks a framework for pragmatic vs an idealistic approach with particular reference to the different approaches to disclosure in the relatively similar nations of Australia and New Zealand and how this reflects community engagement and consideration of distribution and equity
    • Value of Fines for Enforcing Open Defecation Bans......Mark Radin, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Rachel Peletz, Aquaya; Caroline Delaire, Aquaya; John Trimmer, Aquaya; Joyce Kisiangani, Aquaya; Ranjiv Khush, Aquaya
    • More than 400 million people living in rural communities in low-income countries do not have access to safe sanitation facilities and instead practice open defecation (OD). Community-Led Total Sanitation (CLTS), the most implemented rural sanitation intervention, aims to help communities achieve universal latrine access and open defecation free (ODF) status by developing a new sanitation norm. This approach is important for delivering both the private health benefits associated with individual use of safe sanitation facilities but also the public health benefits from living in a community where everyone uses a safe sanitation facility, and the environment is free from fecal contamination. However, studies have found heterogenous treatment effects from CLTS interventions with further questions on the sustainability of the gains from CLTS intervention. One approach some communities have used to re-enforce newly adopted sanitation behaviors after a CLTS intervention is to use fines for those practicing OD. In this study we explore individual valuations for sustaining the impacts of a CLTS intervention with a contingent valuation survey eliciting willingness to pay for professional enforcers to maintain fines for individuals that practice OD. The survey was implemented in 109 communities previously verified ODF in northern Ghana that were selected for a separate randomized control trial testing the impact of a CLTS follow-up program. The survey results show that many individuals are willing to pay hire professional enforcers of the OD ban. We also found that the majority of those that voted against the referendum still expressed support for instituting fines for people practicing OD.
    • Contested Baselines, with illustrations from the Nile Basin......Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • The effect of a policy intervention is measured using some performance indicator such as [net benefits] that is associated with the difference between: 1) a state of the world without the policy intervention, and 2) the state of the world with the policy intervention. Because the impacts of most policy interventions play out over time, this comparison requires a forecast of the state of the world without the policy intervention ([dynamic baseline]). This paper identifies three types of problems that policy analysts confront in specifying this dynamic baseline or counterfactual. The first is the failure of decisionmakers or policy analysts to appreciate the need for a dynamic baseline ([unexamined baselines]). The second is a failure of decisionmakers or policy analysts to agree on a specific dynamic baseline because of inherent uncertainties involved in making the forecast itself ([uncertain baselines]). The third is the failure of different stakeholders to agree on the dynamic baseline ([contested baselines]), which may be due to disagreements over whether status quo conditions provide a reasonable or just basis from which to forecast the dynamic baseline. My focus in this paper is on [contested baselines]. Controversy over the conduct or outcome of a policy analysis may be due primarily to different ethical or political assessments of the appropriate choice of the state of the world without the policy intervention, not to differences of opinion about either 1) the size of the treatment effect resulting from the policy intervention, or 2) parameter values used for the estimation of benefits and costs (e.g., the discount rate). I use the current controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River to illustrate this concept of [contested baselines] and to provide a concrete example of their potential importance for understanding a current policy problem. I conclude that contested baselines are an unappreciated problem in policy analysis.
  • Brad Wong, Copenhagen Consensus Center;
  • 59. Application of EPA’s “Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the United States: A Focus on Six Impacts” to BCA [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 2

    Organizers: James Neumann, Industrial Economics, Inc.; Lauren Gentile, U.S. EPA, Climate Change Division;
    Chair: Lauren Gentile, U.S. EPA, Climate Change Division
    • Methodological details of EPA’s Social Vulnerability report and implications for the context of regulatory analyses and needs for further research......James Neumann, Industrial Economics, Inc.
    • : The analyses presented in EPA`s report follow a basic methodological approach. For each sector, the authors first identify the areas in the contiguous United States (U.S.) where impacts are projected to be the highest under future global temperature change and sea level rise. For example, the Coastal Flooding and Property analysis estimates where the highest percentage of property is projected to be inundated due to sea level rise. Next, the analyses estimate the likelihood that those who are socially vulnerable live in these areas compared to those who are not. This determination is based on current demographic distributions and projected changes in climate hazards under different levels of global warming and sea level rise. The result is a consistent measure of the disproportionate risk to socially vulnerable individuals, which can be compared across groups, regions, and impact categories. Differential exposure, vulnerability, and risk can result from a wide range of social, economic, and political factors that make some populations less able to anticipate, respond to, recover from, and adapt to climate hazards ‚Äì as a result, the methods applied, and the results obtained in this report are complex. This presentation unpacks the details of the underlying data, methods, and results for a sample of the six sectors, focusing on the air quality, coastal infrastructure, and inland flooding analyses. In addition, this presentation presents recommendations for use of similar approaches to meet new requirements for distributional analyses in regulatory contexts, and outlines follow-up data and research needs which could improve these analyses and their connection to risk mitigation activities for socially vulnerable populations.
    • Interpreting and communicating social vulnerability results for multiple audiences......Margaret Black, ABT Associates
    • Climate change affects all Americans‚Äîregardless of socioeconomic status‚Äîand many impacts are projected to worsen as temperatures and sea levels continue to rise, snow and rainfall patterns shift, and some extreme weather events become more common. A growing body of literature focuses on the disproportionate and unequal risks that climate change is projected to have on communities that are least able to anticipate, cope with, and recover from adverse impacts. While many studies have discussed climate change impacts on socially vulnerable populations, few have quantified disproportionate risks to socially vulnerable groups across multiple impacts and levels of global warming. EPA`s report contributes to a better understanding of the degree to which four socially vulnerable populations‚Äîdefined based on income, educational attainment, race and ethnicity, and age‚Äîmay be more exposed to the highest impacts of climate change in six categories: Air Quality and Health; Extreme Temperature and Health; Extreme Temperature and Labor; Coastal Flooding and Traffic; Coastal Flooding and Property; and Inland Flooding and Property. Communicating these findings across multiple audiences, including climate experts who may not understand social vulnerability, and social vulnerability experts for whom technical climate impact analyses are new, presents important challenges. This presentation outlines strategies applied in preparing this to communicate the most important findings; to ensure that the technically sound underlying analyses are conveyed without overwhelming non-technical readers; to narrate stories that reveal and drill down to salient results that involve multiple multi-disciplinary steps and layered nuances of results; and to provide results of a national-scale effort while addressing multiple layers of spatial resolution.
    • Estimating social vulnerability and disproportionate impacts for the effects of extreme temperature on labor......Megan Sheahan, Industrial Economics, Inc.
    • Climate-driven changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures are expected to result in disruptions in labor sectors where people work outdoors or in indoor environments without air conditioning. When temperatures are high, people are at risk of experiencing health and cognitive effects that prevent them from working at optimal levels. As a result, they may spend less time working on hot days or may not be able to work at all. This results in a shift in the allocation of time to labor, with potentially significant economic implications. This analysis estimates changes in labor hours in weather-exposed industries associated with climate-driven effects on high-temperature days. Workers in weather-exposed industries tend to be lower-income individuals who are particularly reliant on their income for meeting basic needs. For example, the average construction worker earns 25% less than the median worker in the U.S., and laborers in the farming, fishing and forestry sectors earn an average of 48% less. These individuals are therefore very sensitive to any decrease in pay associated with reduced labor hours resulting from high-temperature days. We found that climate change will result in a significant increase in the number of days above 90¬∞F across the country, resulting in reductions in labor hours for weather-exposed workers, up to 84 hours per year in some Census tracts. With 2¬∞C of global warming, minorities are 35% more likely than non-minorities o currently live in areas with the highest projected labor hours losses due to climate-driven increases in high-temperature days. Hspanic and Latino individuals are 43% more likely than non-Hispanic and non-Latino individuals to live in these high mact areas. In addition, those with low income or no high school diploma are approximately 25% more likely than individuals in their reference populations to live in high-impact areas.
  • Marcos Luna, Salem State University;
  • 60. Approaches to Ex-Post Evaluation-Based Cost Benefit Analysis [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 3

    Organizers: Derick Bowen, Millennium Challenge Corporation; Allison Wesley, Millennium Challenge Corporation;
    Chair: Derick Bowen, Millennium Challenge Corporation
    This panel will discuss the lessons learned to date from conducting Evaluation-Based CBAs (ECBAs) on 33 of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)’s foreign aid investments. These lessons include findings on how and why ex-ante CBA forecasts have differed from ex-post ECBA results, suggestions on how to select investments for ECBA, common areas of overlap and divergence between the perspective and practice of evaluators and CBA practitioners, recommendations for collaboration between evaluators and CBA practitioners, and operational steps for conducting ECBAs. The discussants include MCC economists (Derick Bowen and Allison Wesley) and consultants from Limestone Analytics who have helped MCC on piloting and scaling up ECBAs (Bahman Kashi and Kristen Schubert).
    61. Student Papers - China, Nigeria, and Tanzania [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 5

    Organizer: Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics
    Chair: Laura Taylor, Georgia Institute of Technology
    • Determinants of the risk perception of farmer-herder conflicts: Evidence from rural Nigeria......Amaka Nnaji, University of Nigeria
    • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the social, economic, and demographic determinants of rural households' risk perception of farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria. The paper also investigates two aspects of farmer-herder conflict risk perception as it relates to food production and physical insecurity. Design/Methodology/Approach: A farmer-herder conflict risk perception model is constructed and tested using exploratory factor analysis, ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression models. The study uses cross-sectional data from 401 rural households in Nigeria. Findings: Results show that in addition to economic determinants like farm size, land ownership and crop diversity, sociodemographic variables like age and number of languages spoken are significant predictors of household risk perception of farmer-herder conflict. Second, although gender and frequency of farmer-herder conflict have no significant effect on the risk perception of farmer-herder conflict, there is a significant moderating effect of frequency of farmer-herder conflicts on the influence of gender on the risk perception of farmer-herder conflict. Third, findings also highlight the important predictors of the risk perception of farmer-herder conflicts relating to food production and physical insecurity. Originality/Value: Findings give insight into policies targeted at influencing the risk behaviour of rural households. This is important to aid the development of efficient risk management initiatives. Keywords: risk perception; farmer-herder conflict; rural households; Nigeria
    • Conserve snow leopard under social choices: Sanjiangyuan National Park in Tibetan Plateau, China......Shi Xiangying, Peking University; Jintao Xu, Peking University
    • The Sanjiangyuan Area, located in the Tibetan Plateau, is the source of Yangtze, Yellow and Mekong Rivers. The area is featured by intact alpine ecosystem, one of the most important habitat to the big carnivores in the world, and long nomad history coexisting with wildlife. Snow leopard is listed as vulnerable(VU) in IUCN red list. It is the apex predator of the ecosystem, and 60% of habitat of snow leopard is in the Northwest China mountainous areas. To conserve important alpine ecosystem and endangered species, the Sanjiangyuan National Park(SNP) has been prepared since 2015, and formally established in 2021 to be the first batch of National Parks in China. The SNP not only integrates the administration structures, but also hires rangers from local communities, and authorize exclusive community-run ecotourism in order to develop local livelihood and also realize educational and recreational value of the ecosystem. This study will appraise the value of the SNP conservation through travel cost method and the empirical effect on local herders’ conservation motivation, compare to the investment and local cost of the SNP establishment. The results indicate the conservation value substantially exceeded the present cost, but the institutions need to fully incentivize local communities for an equitable and sustainable social-ecosystem equilibrium.
    • The Role of Social Capital in Households’ Transition towards Modern Cooking Fuels in Tanzania......
    • Tanzanian households rely heavily on wood fuel (firewood and charcoal) for cooking. This has far reaching implications on household and societal welfare due to the associated indoor air pollution and deforestation. Among other measures, social capital could catalyse greater transitions to clean and sustainable cooking fuels such as electricity and LPG. This paper uses panel data econometrics to investigate the role of social capital in households’ transition towards modern cooking fuels in Tanzania. A key measure of social capital used for Tanzania is membership in Savings and Credit Co-Operative Societies (SACCOS) or self-help groups. The study found that households with membership in these groups were more likely to adopt modern cooking fuels. SACCOS and other self-help groups serve to spread awareness and technical information about, and bridge liquidity constraints on new technologies, including modern energy. Given the citizenry’s general aversion to command and control by the government and the high levels of trust within SACCOS and other self-help groups, using these groups to drive the adoption of modern energy could be the panacea to the problem of continued unsustainable use of woody fuels in the country.
  • Laura Taylor, Georgia Institute of Technology;
  • 62. Benefits of Preventing Emerging Risks and Rare Events [Roundtable Discussion]
    Tuesday | 9:00 am-10:30 am | Room 1

    Organizer: Nellie Lew, FAA
    Chair: Nellie Lew, FAA
    Public policies and regulations often involve benefit-cost analyses of an intervention, mitigation, or new requirements intended to reduce a risk. When these baseline risks are difficult to characterize with historical data due to their emerging or low probable nature, yet potentially have high consequences, what tools and methods should apply? Are there opportunities to explore proxy data or near-misses which may not be associated with immediate consequences or harms, but suggest the likelihood of such events? Furthermore, what does that imply for benefit-cost analysis, which traditionally rely on events with actual consequences to quantify benefits? In this roundtable of practitioners and academics, we explore these challenges and the methods that have been applied across multiple contexts, including, aviation, environmental, pipeline and hazmat, security, and public safety.
    • Panelist......Danny Bressler, Columbia University
    • Panelist......Tony Cheesebrough, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
    • Panelist......Robin Dillon-Merrill, Georgetown University
    • Panelist......Alex Moscoso, U.S. Product Safety Commission
    • Panelist......Gabriel Movsesyan, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
    63. Leveraging machine learning estimates of treatment effect heterogeneity to improve equity and cost effectiveness [Plenary]
    Tuesday | 11:00 am-12:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Craig Thornton, Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis
    Chair: Craig Thornton, Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis
    This talk will show that combining randomized controlled trials with machine learning methods can produce consistent estimate of treatment effect heterogeneity by baseline covariates, which can then potentially be used to target programs better. The main application will be to a childhood immunization encouragement program in India.
    • Presenter......Esther Duflo, MIT
    • "Leveraging machine learning estimates of treatment effect heterogeneity to improve equity and cost effectiveness" This talk will show that combining randomized controlled trials with machine learning methods can produce consistent estimate of treatment effect heterogeneity by baseline covariates, which can then potentially be used to target programs better. The main application will be to a childhood immunization encouragement program in India.
  • Lynn Karoly, RAND;
  • 64. Water and sanitation planning and policy in low- and middle-income countries [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 2

    Organizer: David Fuente, University of South Carolina
    Chair: David Fuente, University of South Carolina
    • A Meta-Analysis of Hedonic Property Value Model Estimates of Piped Water Supply Services in Developing Countries......Jane Zhao, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill; Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • We review the hedonic property value model (HPVM) and its application in developing countries in estimating household willingness to pay for improved water services from piped connections. We present a conceptual framework for interpreting hedonic estimates and to guide future work. We conduct a meta-analysis, illustrate the challenges associated with its application,and compare it with other non-market valuation techniques to assess the HPVM`s reliability and validity as a method. Of the 75 market premiums for piped water services estimated from 36 studies, we find that 28 are not significant. We find a large range of hedonic market premiums for piped water services, from ‚ÄìUS$39 per month to US$938 per month, with a high average ofUS$88 per month. Statistically significant coefficients are related to a researcher focus on water services, tenure security, addressing endogeneity, and including other infrastructure access. Market premiums are sensitive to the proportion of homes in the sample with piped supply, researcher focus on water services, and inclusion of infrastructure and other water supply variables. When compared to willingness to pay for piped water using other non-market aluation techniques, we find that the distribution of the HPVM market premiums has a reasonable median but an implausibly high mean value, indicating issues with precision. This leads us to identify the existing challenges faced by researchers using the HPVM, and we propose best practices when designing future research.
    • Evaluating the Free Water Policy of Delhi......Saumitra Sinha, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
    • In 2013, the Delhi government instituted a free water policy according to which if a household consumes less than or equal to 20 m3 of water a month, then it is not charged any fees for water and sanitation. However, if consumption exceeds the threshold, then the household is charged the full amount according to an increasing block tariff and does not avail of any free water. While this popular policy has benefitted a lot of people, it has not been critically evaluated and it is not clear how the benefits and costs are distributed. This paper will attempt to assess the free water policy of Delhi by conducting a benefit cost analysis from 2013 to 2020. The benefits and costs to two main stakeholders would be determined ‚Äì the utility/taxpayers and customers. The four categories to be included in the assessment would be: 1) the rebate of the free water; 2) new meter connections due to the policy; 3) reduced water consumption by some households that were consuming more than 20 m3 of water and reduced their consumption to meet the threshold; 4) and increased water consumption by households that previously consumed less than 20 m3 of water and start to consume more. The paper will further present a methodology to understand how the policy impacts households of different income groups.
    • Salience of Information on Quantity. Does Provision of Information on Quantity Matters for Responses in Water Demand? Natural Experiment of the Digitalization of the Water Bill in San Jose, Costa Rica......Helena Cardenas, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    • SBCA_P191016_1638543927.pdf Salience of Information on Quantity. Does Provision of Information on Quantity Matters for Responses in Water Demand? Natural Experiment of the Digitalization of the Water Bill in San Jose, Costa Rica <<Salience of Information on Quantity. Does Provision of Information on Quantity Matters for Responses in Water Demand? Natural Experiment of the Digitalization of the Water Bill in San Jose, Costa Rica.<< By Helena Cardenas abstract Information about price and quantity of goods and services might play a role in the demand of goods and services. Salience of information in the context of water and electricity residential demand has been studied in various contexts, such as how information on prices is delivered to the customer, periodicity of information on prices, and also information on social norms. However, there have not been studies that focus precisely on quantity information on water and its impact on demand. For this purpose, I take advantage of a natural experiment in the city of San Jose, where water customers lost information on quantity of water used, due to a process of the water utility digitalizing its billing system during the year 2014. I merge historical data from water utility residential customers (monthly data 2012-2020), national census data, and weather data to analyze water demand with micro-data, and I also collect survey data to 800 households to further evaluate responses from customers during the process of digitalization of the water bill. These results confirm the hypothesis that salience of information on quantity could be an important factor for responses to policies in piped water demand. However, the results are quite surprising. For various groups of customers, water demand decreased in the period after the digitalization, while for others it increased. Additionally, as the time has passed, more months of digitalization exposure has caused an increment of households water use in comparison to its pre-digitalization period. To understand what happened during this digitalization process, I first evaluate customers` responses to the digitalization process, including: customers` bill consultation patterns, what digital platforms were made available to customers, and what information was provided in each platform. I run an attention model to analyze the determinants of consumers` attention to the bill, and finally I analyze how those changes in bill consultation and information access impacted water demand.
    • Household perceptions of affordability and “fair” water prices: Insights from a field experiment in Nairobi, Kenya.......David Fuente, University of South Carolina
    • Household perceptions of affordability and <<fair<< water prices: Insights from a field experiment in Nairobi, Kenya. The effective pricing of municipal water and sanitation services plays an essential role in promoting efficient water use and enhancing utilities‚`Äô` ability to deliver high-quality water and sanitation services. Despite recent global attention to the affordability of water and sanitation services and subsidies in the sector, limited attention has been paid to household perceptions of affordability and their preferences regarding the design and delivery of subsidies. This paper examines customer perceptions of affordability, what constitutes <<fair<< water prices, and household preferences for different subsidy delivery mechanisms in a low-income community in Nairobi, Kenya. In particular, the paper uses a field experiment to test whether information on the capital intensity and cost of water infrastructure affects households‚`Äô` perceptions of <<fair<< water prices. It also assesses household perceptions of affordability and reports their preferences for hypothetical subsidy delivery programs. We find that households in our sample (n=325) felt that water service provided by Nairobi City Water and Sewer Company was affordable at current prices, particularly in relation to alternative sources (i.e., vendors). However, households felt that water service would put a financial strain on their families if service was priced at full cost recovery levels. We also find that households preferred subsidy mechanisms that provided some form of autonomy over when and how to access and use subsidies. Finally, we find that information on the cost and capital intensity of water service delivery had a positive and statistically significant effect on households` perceptions of <<fair<< water prices. Overall, this paper contributes directly to the global discourse on the affordability of water and sanitation services, the design and delivery of smart(er) subsidies for basic infrastructure and services, and the challenge of getting water utilities on the path to financial sustainability
    65. Toxic Chemicals, Tobacco, and Organ Donation [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 3

    Chair: Deven Carlson, University of Oklahoma
    • Economic benefits of reducing risk of very low birth weight and related health problems caused by exposure to toxic chemicals in OECD countries......Iva Zverinova, Charles University; Milan Ščasný, Charles University
    • Estimates of the economic benefits of reducing exposure to toxic chemicals and consequent health risks associated with very low birth weight are rare. Such estimates are important for benefit-cost analysis of future chemical regulations. To provide these estimates, we conduct a stated preference survey within an OECD project in eight countries, namely the Czech Republic, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, Switzerland,Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.First, we explain the health problems related to very low birth weight, specifically neurosensory, and social competence problems, and intellectual and learning disabilities.Then, we introduce a private good scenario that describes new safer products, which do not contain toxic substances that increase probability to have a child to be born with very low birth weight.We use a double-bounded dichotomous choice format to elicit the parents` preferences to reduce this risk.The willingness to pay and value of statistical case are estimated.Observed preference heterogeneity is explained by socio-demographic characteristics as well as attitudinal constructs based on a socio-psychological theory, particularly Value belief norm theory. Keywords: health risk; willingness to pay; stated preferences; very low birth weight
    • Spillover Effects of Extreme Risk Protection Order Law on Organ Donation......Rachel Dalafave, Vanderbilt University
    • In the past few years, several states have enacted Extreme Risk Protection Order ("ERPO") laws, gun control laws that permit police or family members to petition a state court to order the temporary removal of firearms from a person who may present a danger to themselves or others. Consistent with other estimates, this statistical analysis shows that ERPO laws effectively reduce suicide, especially firearm-related suicide. Because a significant fraction of organ donations come from suicide deaths, ERPO laws can potentially affect the supply of organ donors. This article estimates the net mortality effects of ERPO laws taking into account the suicide prevention and the decreased supply of organs. I find that ERPO laws are associated with modest decreases in suicide donors. These point estimates suggest that ERPO laws decrease the organ supply by approximately 0.6%. Like other lifesaving public health measures, ERPO laws have a small, but significant, impact on the overall organ supply, despite an overall positive impact on mortality. Using estimates of the value of a statistical life, this article estimates the net mortality reduction benefits of ERPO laws. As policy makers and advocates continue to push for policies aimed specifically at firearm violence prevention, the supply of organ donors will have to increase through other sources to keep the inefficiency in the organ market from growing.
    • Tobacco Product Regulatory Review: A Proposal for More Analysis and Less Sludge......Don Kenkel, Cornell University
    • The 2009 Tobacco Control Act gave the FDA regulatory authority over the tobacco industry. Since then, the regulation of tobacco products has proceeded along two tracks. Along one track, the FDA uses notice-and-comment rulemaking and, as required by Executive Order 12866, has completed eleven economic impact analyses of the costs and benefits of proposed and final tobacco regulations. Along a second track, the FDA has reviewed premarket tobacco product applications representing over 6.5 million products. The FDA has issued marketing denial orders for more than one million flavored ecigarette products, on the grounds that the applications fail to demonstrate that the products would be appropriate for the protection of public health. Many e-cigarette MDOs are currently under litigation; the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit granted one manufacturer`s application for a stay of the MDO, in part because the FDA <<pull[ed] a surprise switcheroo<< and required product-specific evidence. The premarket tobacco application process creates paperwork and bureaucratic sludge for e-cigarette manufacturers, the FDA, and the courts. This paper argues that greater reliance on notice-and-comment rulemaking would result in better tobacco regulatory review: more analysis and less sludge. Economic impact analysis provides a systematic framework to determine whether permitting the marketing of a product is appropriate. To date, FDA marketing decisions have hinged on whether the benefit to adults who use e-cigarettes to quit smoking overcome the health risks to youth users. However, the FDA provides only a qualitative discussion of the tradeoffs. Economic impact analyses of a wide range of regulatory actions establish the usefulness of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to quantify similar tradeoffs. Notice-and-comment rulemaking would provide a transparent and rigorous analysis to guide tobacco regulation. Replacing product-by-product marketing reviews with e-cigarette product standards would also reduce paperwork burden and bureaucratic sludge.
  • Deven Carlson, University of Oklahoma;
  • 66. Distributive Implications of PM2.5 and Dust-Lead Policies and Benefits of Plastic Bans and Seabird Sanctuaries [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 4

    Chair: Lala Ma, University of Kentucky
    • Mortality Risk from PM2.5: A Comparison of Modeling Approaches to Identify Disparities across Racial/Ethnic Groups in Policy Outcomes......Elisheba Spiller, Environmental Defense Fund; Jeremy Proville, Environmental Defense Fund; Ananya Roy, Environmental Defense Fund; Nicholas Muller, Carnegie Mellon University
    • Regulatory analyses of air pollution policies require the utilization of concentration response functions and underlying health data to estimate the mortality and morbidity effects, as well as the resulting benefits, associated with policy-related changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Common practice by United States federal agencies involves using underlying health data and concentration response functions that are not differentiated by racial/ethnic group. We aim to explore the policy implications of utilizing race/ethnicity-specific concentration response functions and mortality data in comparison to standard approaches when estimating the impact of air pollution on non-white racial/ethnic subgroups. Utilizing new estimates from the epidemiological literature on race/ethnicity-specific concentration response functions paired with race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates, we estimated the mortality impacts of air pollution from all sources, from a uniform increase in concentrations, and from the regulations imposed by the Mercury Air Toxics Standards. Utilization of race/ethnicity-specific information increased PM2.5-related premature mortality estimates in older populations by 9% and among older Black Americans by 150% for all-source pollution exposure. Under a uniform degradation of air quality and race/ethnicity-specific information, older Black Americans were found to have approximately 3 times higher mortality relative to White Americans, which is obscured under a non-race/ethnicity-specific modeling approach. Standard approaches of using non-racial/ethnic specific information underestimate the benefits of the Mercury Air Toxics Standard to older Black Americans by almost 60% while overestimating the benefits to older White Americans by 14% relative to using a race/ethnicity-specific modeling approach. Policy analyses incorporating race/ethnicity-specific concentration response functions and mortality data relative to non-differentiated inputs underestimate the overall magnitude of PM2.5 mortality burden and the disparity in impacts on older Black American populations. Based on our results, we recommend that the best available race/ethnicity-specific inputs are used in regulatory assessments to understand and reduce environmental injustices.
    • Environmental Justice Implications of Revisions to U.S. EPA’s Dust-Lead Hazard Standards and Dust-Lead Clearance Levels......Lauren Masatsugu, ABT Associates; Matt LaPenta, ABT Associates
    • Lead-based paint is a major source of lead hazards in residential housing. Lead exposure is especially harmful to young children, where it can cause irreversible and life-long health effects, such as negatively affecting IQ, ability to pay attention, and academic achievement. Low income and minority children in particular are disproportionately affected by lead-based paint exposures in older housing. We analyze the environmental justice implications of a recent pair of rules promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that tighten standards for lead in dust on floors and window sills. We determine the demographic make-up of children who will benefit from EPA`s rules and utilize an empirical model that estimates avoided IQ losses and subsequent gains in lifetime earnings in these populations. We find that the regulations will largely benefit Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, and low-income children as compared to other race-ethnicity and income groups. We estimate that the combined effect of the two rules may result in annual increases of up to $120 million in lifetime earnings for Hispanic children, and up to $450 million in lifetime earnings gains for Non-Hispanic Black children. To the extent that the impacts of children`s‚`Äô` IQ losses have disproportionate effects on minority populations and low-income populations, the rules should help mitigate some of these inequalities.
    • Benefit-cost analysis of Canada’s proposed Single-Use Plastics Prohibition Regulations......Mathieu Coutu, Environment and Climate change Canada; Kai Furugori, Environment and Climate Change Canada
    • Plastics are among the most universally used material in modern society. A 2019 study found that 3.3 million tonnes of plastic waste was generated in Canada in 2016, of which 90 percent were landfilled or incinerated, nine percent were recycled and one percent became plastic pollution. Single-use consumer items, particularly single-use plastics (SUPs) are amongst the most commonly collected items in litter clean-ups, both domestically and internationally. Current scientific evidence indicates that plastic pollution poses an ecological hazard, including physical harm, to some animals and their habitat. The Government of Canada has committed to taking action to reduce plastic waste and plastic pollution through several avenues, including a proposed ban on certain SUPs, which would prohibit the manufacture, import and sale of six categories of SUPs (i.e., checkout bags, cutlery, foodservice ware made from or containing problematic plastics, ring carriers, stir sticks and straws). These SUPs represented 160,000 tonnes of plastic sold in 2019, or an estimated five percent of the total plastic waste generated in Canada that year. The presenters will start by summarizing the proposed regulatory design, characterize the Canadian market for the six categories of SUPs, and discuss the expected impact of the proposed Regulations on the markets for SUPs and their commercially-available substitutes. The presentation will discuss the benefits and costs of the proposed Regulations, including methodologies, challenges and solutions for quantifying and monetizing the expected impacts from the Regulations. Key benefits include decreased risk of injury or death to wildlife, improvement in natural habitat quality, increased enjoyment of ecosystem goods and services, and avoided litter clean-up costs to society. Key quantified costs include substitution costs no non-prohibited single-use items, secondary-use costs for checkout bags, waste management costs. Non-monetized cost include cost to manufacturers and potential perceived utility loss by consumers.
    • Estimating the Economic Value of the Crab Bank Seabird Sanctuary......John Whitehead, Appalachian State University; Ray Rhodes, College of Charleston
    • Estimating the Economic Value of the Crab Bank Seabird Sanctuary John Whitehead (Department of Economics) and Ray Rhodes (College of Charleston) Crab Bank Seabird Sanctuary is located just offshore Mt. Pleasant, SC, in Charleston Harbor. Crab Bank had been eroding slowly for years and in 2017 Hurricane Irma washed away the last bit of high ground, eliminating the possibility of nesting birds. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will restore 28 acres of nesting habitat above the high tide line. The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of Crab Bank to the state of South Carolina (SC) with the contingent valuation method. The survey questions propose various future management situations for Crab Bank along with an individual cost for the management action (a voluntary contribution). An online survey was developed with the Qualtrics platform. During July 2021, over one-thousand responses were collected from the SC general population using the Dynata opt-in panel. We find that 52% are willing to make a one-time $2 donation and 18% are willing to make a donation between $10 and $300. We find two classes of respondents in a latent class model: class one (70%) is only sensitive to the requested donation amount and class two (30%) is sensitive to the requested donation amount, the number of homes protected, the number of bird nests and household income. Mean willingness to pay is estimated conservatively ‚Äì we only include those who are very sure they would donate to mitigate against hypothetical bias and those in the class of respondents who are sensitive to the scope of the policy. We estimate that aggregate willingness to pay is $22 million to maintain Crab Bank against erosion. The expected cost is $4 million so we conclude that the net benefits of Crab Bank restoration are positive.
    67. Regulation Issues: Modernization, Secondary Markets, CEA, and Compliance [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 5

    Chair: David Weimer, University of Wisconsin, Madison
    • Cost-Effectiveness Analysis versus Benefit-Cost Analysis......Elizabeth Ashley, OMB Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs
    • Cost-effectiveness analysis is benefit-cost analysis (BCA) with one key input missing--or so goes the conventional wisdom in the BCA community. However, as actually practiced in public health and medical literature, cost-effectiveness (and related "cost-utility") assessment diverges from BCA in underappreciated ways. This presentation would highlight challenges and pose questions for how to provide guidance on the incorporation of published cost-effectiveness assessments into benefit-cost analyses, especially BCA of proposed government policies.
    • When Can Benefit Cost Analyses Can Ignore Secondary Markets?......Matthew Kotchen, Yale University; Arik Levinson, Georgetown University
    • We make four main contributions in this paper related to the theory and practice of benefit cost analysis (BCA). First, we show that most BCAs of policy interventions do not to consider the welfare consequences in secondary markets, where goods or services can be complements or substitutes to those in the directly regulated markets. Second, we provide a general theoretical analysis for examining the sign of welfare effects in secondary markets, showing how the results depend on the welfare measure of interest and on whether the goods are complements or substitutes. In doing so, we conclude that the welfare effects in secondary markets will typically be negative in cases most relevant for policy analysis. Third, we develop a straightforward tool that BCA analysts can use to evaluate the potential magnitude of secondary market effects in particular applications. The tool itself highlights how secondary markets are likely to be relatively small in most circumstances. Finally, we illustrate use of the tool in different applications that provide further evidence in support of the conclusion that secondary market effects are likely to be small.
    • Economic Impact of Regulatory Compliance Processes......Daniel Perez, George Washington University; Layvon Washington, George Washington University; Joseph Cordes, George Washington University; Susan Dudley, George Washington University
    • Title: Economic Impact of Regulatory Compliance Processes Authors: Daniel R. P√©rez, Layvon Q. Washington, Joseph J. Cordes, Susan E. Dudley In principle regulations should be designed and implemented to minimize the economic burdens of compliance. When such is not the case, regulation is more costly than it needs to be, and an important question is: what are the added costs of regulating inefficiently? States and localities in he U.S. are increasingly turning to policy reforms to streamline regulatory compliance costs to rduce unnecessary burdens on businesses in ways that retain‚Äîor improve‚Äîregulatory outcomes. oever, we lack systematic evidence about the cases where the economic benefits of reducing rglatory burdens are likely to outweigh the costs required to achieve them. Furthermore, is there vdnce that the cost savings produced by certain reforms is substantial enough that states and lclties could reasonably expect their efforts to contribute to an economic development strategy? Our paper conducts a comprehensive review of the literature that bears on the issue of economic udn and costs borne by businesses and citizens due to inefficient design and implementation o euations. We focus on the cost of regulation in three areas of importance to states and cities: )ln se regulations and building codes, 2) general business permitting, and 3) environmental rgltos. We organize our discussion of regulatory inefficiency around several broad themes: 1 nfiiencies caused by limiting the flexibility of regulated parties to determine the best way t opywth regulations; (2) inefficiencies due to unnecessary uncertainties created by euaoyrles and/or processes, (3) inefficiencies resulting from unnecessary delays caused by rgltr opliance, and (4) inefficiencies and opportunity costs of wasteful resource xedtrsEidence suggests that recent reforms, including the European Commission`s Better Regulation iiitvsadapproaches to administrative burden reductions conducted by Canada, the UK, and eea ..saes, have successfully reduced costs without affecting regulatory safeguards (e.g., srnec fsadards).
    • "Modernizing" Regulatory Impact Analysis......Richard Belzer, Consultant
    • SBCA abstract <<Modernizing<< Regulatory Impact Analyses in the Biden Administration On January 20, 2021, President Biden issued a memorandum titled <<Modernizing Regulatory Review<< (86 Fed. Reg. 7223). Among other things, the Memorandum directs the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to reform the procedures for and contents of Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs). OMB must revise its existing guidance (Circular A-4) to <<take into account the distributional consequences of regulations, including as part of any quantitative or qualitative analysis of the costs and benefits of regulations, to ensure that regulatory initiatives appropriately benefit and do not inappropriately burden disadvantaged, vulnerable, or marginalized communities.<< Advocates of the Memorandum have publicly stated that a key objective is to expand and perhaps formally require rigorous distributional analysis. This paper identifies two economic parameters that regulatory economists must change to comply with the Memorandum: (a) the value of statistical lifesaving (VSL) and (b) the discount rate. Persons in disadvantaged, vulnerable, or marginalized communities are likely to have lower willingness-to-pay for environmental health risk reductions, particularly those set forth in the Memorandum (e.g., climate change), but higher willingness-to-pay for certain other risks (e.g., crime, educational quality, employment, housing, and inflation). Moreover, they are likely to have much higher rates of time preference than are reflected in OMB`s default 7% rate and the 3% rate favored by many federal agencies. Rigorous distributional analysis is needed showing how VSLs and discount rates differ for disadvantaged, vulnerable, or marginalized communities. These analyses must then be incorporated in OMB guidance and agency RIAs.
    68. Using BCA to support agile regulatory governance [Roundtable Discussion]
    Tuesday | 1:00 pm-2:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Susan Dudley, George Washington University
    Chair: Daniel Trnka, Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development
    The rise of the digital economy is one of the defining features of the 21st century. Innovation and digital technologies affect societies and economies in many ways. Governments play a major role in encouraging digital innovation and incentivising the development of these technologies for the benefit of society. They can foster broad public and consumer interests and limit any potential unintended negative consequences by providing general rules that reflect societal values and preferences. Little is yet understood on how the traditional regulatory functions of governments, including the application of regulatory management tools, such as impact assessment and benefit-cost analysis, should evolve with these transformative changes. A number of factors compound to create unprecedented challenges in the way governments and regulators operate. Regulatory frameworks might not be agile enough to accommodate the fast pace of technological development and, in many cases, rules might be outdated and no longer relevant. Beyond this pacing problem, emerging technologies challenge the ways governments regulate in fundamental and interrelated ways by blurring the traditional definition of markets, challenging enforcement, and transcending administrative boundaries domestically and internationally. The panel will discuss how governments are attempting to use BCA in an agile and integrated fashion to inform a continuous learning and adaptation process throughout the policy cycle.
    69. Tools and Applications in Benefit-Cost Analysis [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 1

    Chair: Kirsten Jensen, The New Zealand Treasury
    • Cost-Benefit Analysis of IT Innovations in VAT Taxation of Small Business......Siamand Hesami, Eastern Mediterranean University; Owotomiwa C. Olubamiro, cambridge Resources International; Glenn P. Jenkins, Queen's University
    • In a value added tax system, businesses are essentially instruments or institutions for tax collection. It is generally agreed that the value added tax is passed entirely on to consumers, hence the role of businesses is to collect the tax revenues and remit them to the government. Unfortunately, the compliance cost imposed on small business to collect and remit the taxes, without compensation, is a very significant cost burden. For example, it is estimated in a recent EU survey of business that in Finland approximately 98% of the compliance cost for collecting the VAT is borne by medium, small, and micro enterprises (SME). This cost amounts to approximately 775 million euros a year, yet these firms are only collecting about 20% of the total VAT revenues. Electronic invoicing is becoming the normal way of transacting business payments, particularly in developed countries such as Finland. It has brought huge savings in accounting costs of business. A model is developed based on the technology and information systems used by credit card companies to have the statements for payment of the vat revenues collected by SME business to be initiated by the tax department, not the enterprises. An economic cost-benefit analysis has been carried for the case of such a tax administration reform for Finland. Without considering the cost savings to the tax administration from reduced compliance and enforcement costs, or the reduction of psychological costs of taxation being borne by the owners of SMEs, it is estimated that the economic benefit cost ratio would be at least 8 from implementing this administrative reform.
    • Does Means Testing Incentivise Assets Depletion?......Fabio Rodrigues Dos Santos, Macquarie University; Chris Heaton, Macquarie University; Pundarik Mukhopadhaya, Macquarie University
    • Australia is one of few countries that operate a means tested pension with the unique feature of an assets test. The debate of whether a means tested pension is preferred over a universal pension rests upon whether individuals save. The compulsory second pillar of pension serve, for many, the basis of their retirement savings; however, the lump-sum withdrawal option commonly found with DC plans and knowledge of the assets test may lead some to over-consume or conceal assets in order to be eligible for pension benefits. Using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) data and a Regression Discontinuity (RD) analysis, we analyse the causal effects of the Australian pension`s thresholds on pre- and current-retirees behaviour. Keywords: Manipulation, Means Tested Pension, Regression Discontinuity Analysis, Retirement
    • A holistic way to deliver value for money......Joanne Leung, New Zealand Ministry of Transport
    • Government interventions involve successful implementation and operations at multiple levels to deliver the desired results. To maximise the effects with limited resources, it is necessary to demonstrate both efficiency and effectiveness while delivering the outcomes intended. This relates to the notion of achieving value for money. At a minimum, achieving value for money requires making sure investments target what society needs, what it values and what it can afford. It also requires taking the entire intervention life cycle into consideration. While traditional Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is still one of the key tools to inform evidence-based decision-making, it has a number of limitations that call for additional tools and approach. Interventions affect health, social, economic and environmental outcomes and the values they create for individuals, businesses and the economy. The realisation of these values requires applying a consistent approach throughout the entire intervention life-cycle. This covers various stages of a project or programme, including development, procurement, operation, monitoring and evaluation. Therefore, achieving value for money goes beyond conducting a CBA. This presentation will discuss the value for money framework adopted by the NZ Ministry of Transport to support conventional CBA in preparing the Wellbeing Budget 2022.
    • The New Zealand Treasury CBAx tool......Kirsten Jensen, The New Zealand Treasury
    • Many governments provide benefit-cost analysis guidance for agencies. It is less common for governments to provide models for agencies to use. In practice, it is a challenge for agencies to provide benefit-cost analysis to support policy and budget decisions. It is particularly challenging for agencies to value non-market impacts. The New Zealand Treasury introduced a publicly available spreadsheet tool called CBAx in 2015. The tool includes a database of values to help agencies monetise impacts of policy options and interventions. A 2018 review showed that the quality of analysis improved. This presentation provides an overview of the CBAx tool and approach, including unique features such as subjective wellbeing valuation. CBAx is placed within the context of a wellbeing policy focus and efforts to build agency capability. The presentation shares the practical experiences of designing and applying CBAx in budget decision making, such as methodological challenges, developments and hard calls. The September 2021 CBAx model includes WELLBY1 values, consistent with UK 2021 guidance. The ethical considerations are touched on including consideration of distribution.
    70. Welfare and Distributional Effects of Different Water Pricing Schemes [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 2

    Organizer: Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo
    Chair: Felipe Vásquez-Lavín, Universidad del Desarrollo
    71. VSL and Equity [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 3:00 pm-4:30 pm | Room 3

    Organizer: Matthew Adler, Duke University
    Chair: Mary Evans, University of Texas at Austi
    • Valuing Future Lives......Daniel Hemel, University of Chicago; Jonathan Masur, University of Chicago
    • Presentation: Daniel Hemel & Jonathan Masur, <<Valuing Future Lives<< The valuation of future lives is an important issue in regulatory cost-benefit analysis. The approach currently used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency places a very low value on lives saved in the future. The agency`s central estimates for key parameters imply that one life saved today is worth more than three lives saved 50 years from now, more than 10 lives saved a century from now, and more than 100 lives saved two centuries from now. These low valuations for future lives significantly reduce the estimated benefits of policies that mitigate climate change and other long-term public health threats. This paper explains how EPA has come to discount future lives so heavily. The agency estimates the value of future lives using a two-step procedure. First, it transforms the current value of a statistical life (VSL) into a future real-dollar VSL by applying the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life to the Congressional Budget Office`s projected rate of real GDP growth. Next, it transforms the future realdollar VSL into present-value terms by applying a social discount rate. EPA`s central estimates of the relevant parameters‚ 0.40 for the income elasticity of the VSL, 1.6 percent for the real growth rate, and 3 percent for the social discount rate‚ may seem unremarkable in isolation, but they combine to generate very low values for future mortality benefits. The agency`s current approach is difficult to defend on welfarist grounds. We argue that EPA and other agencies ought to assume, absent compelling reasons to the contrary, that the value of a life in the future is the same as the value of a life today. A modest discount for future mortality benefits might be justified on the basis of extinction risk, but modest increases in the value of future lives might be justified on the basis of increasing life expectancy or quality of life. Accordingly, the steep discounts for future lives implicit in EPA`s current approach cannot be justified absent an ad hoc preference for the present or a very pessimistic outlook on humanity`s future.
    • Identity-Adjusted VSL......Arden Rowell, University of Illinois
    • The use and calculation of VSLs is conventionally justified by reference to willingness to pay to reduce mortality risk. Empirical research establishes that willingness to pay to reduce mortality risk varies according to at least some identity characteristics (including income, age, and health status, and perhaps also including gender, race, national origin, and time of birth). Yet the conventional approach to incorporating VSLs into CBA ignores many of these characteristics -- wealth, age, race, gender, health status -- in favor of applying a single VSL that is at least partially identity-blind. Perhaps oddly, this identity blindness is not absolute: current practice also (sometimes) incorporates identity-related adjustments for two other identity characteristics: time of birth (sometimes accounted for by adjusting VSLs upwards for future persons) and national origin (accounted for variously by excluding extraterritorial impacts, and by implicit incorporation of country-specific VSLs imbedded in the global SCC estimates). In this sense, current practice adopts a mostly‚ but not completely‚ identity-blind VSL. Whether this practice makes sense presents a series of legitimately challenging puzzles about when, how, which, and why identity characteristics should matter to VSLs. The continued development of increasingly sensitive regulatory impact models puts heightened pressure on these questions, as it becomes increasingly possible to predict the identity characteristics of those who are likely to be impacted by a regulation. Yet the basic puzzle of how those impacts should be valued cannot be answered by reference to technical methods alone, because the question of whether VSLs should be identity-blind or identity-adjusted rests at least partially on ethical, legal, and political reasoning. Particularly where current practice diverges from empirical findings on willingness-to-pay‚ with wealth-blind VSLs, it is important to identify and articulate the ethical, legal, and/or political reasons for the divergence, and to recognize that those reasons are non-technical in nature. Notably, reasoning about the appropriate identity sensitivity of the VSL may vary according to the identity characteristic involved; it may be, for example, that wealth-blind VSLs are ethically justifiable because they avoid reinforcing structural inequalities in the distribution of wealth‚ but a concern about structural inequalities in wealth does not automatically justify either ignoring or taking account of nonwealth characteristics, such as health status, age, gender, or national origin. Similarly, legal concerns may justify adopting identity-sensitive valuations in some contexts--as where the law requires an agency to account only for domestic impacts of a policy--but not others. Such concerns may generate technical requirements in that they should be understood to require the best available methodology for calculating VSLs that is sensitive to the particular identity characteristic in question.
    • The Social Value of Risk Reduction versus VSL......Matthew Adler, Duke University
    • The social welfare function (SWF) is a methodology that has been extensively discussed in economic theory; is the linchpin of the economic literature on optimal taxation; and is also widely employed in economic studies of climate policy. Unlike benefit-cost analysis (BCA), which translates policy impacts into monetary equivalents (via the construct of willingness-to-pay/accept) and is insensitive to distribution, the SWF approach uses interpersonally comparable utility numbers and takes account of distribution: either by using a utilitarian SWF, which is sensitive to the distribution of income, or by using a "prioritarian" SWF, which is sensitive to the distribution of well-being itself. The SWF methodology can be used to evaluate fatality-risk-reduction policies. In this application, the social value of risk reduction (SVRR) is a central concept. SVRR is the marginal social value of reducing an individual`s fatality risk, with social value calculated using an SWF. SVRR is the SWF analogue to VSL, which is a conversion factor that takes a marginal reduction in an individual`s fatality risk and converts that to a monetary equivalent. This presentation will explain the SVRR concept and summarize research results demonstrating substantial differences between both utilitarian and prioritarian SVRRs, on the one hand, and VSL, on the other‚ as regards the effect of an individual`s income, age, and background risk on the valuation of a reduction in her fatality risk.
  • James Hammitt, Harvard University;
  • 72. Preventing Illness [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 1

    Chair: Laura Stanley, George Washington University
    • Occupational Heat Illness Prevention in California......David Metz, RAND Corporation; Shannon Prier, RAND Corporation; Benjamin Miller, RAND Corporation
    • Occupational exposure to extreme heat conditions can result in reduced productivity, illness, injury, permanent disability, vital organ damage, and death. In 2005, California became the first state to pass an occupational heat illness prevention standard. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, workers in agriculture and construction are at the highest risk, but the problem affects all workers exposed to heat, including indoor workers in non-climate controlled environments. The California Division of Occupational Safety and Health recently proposed a standard to minimize heat-related illness and injury among indoor workers. The proposed regulation would set new requirements for indoor places of employment that equal or exceed specified temperature thresholds. The RAND Corporation prepared a regulatory impact analysis, required by California law, for the Department of Industrial Relations. This is the first large-scale benefit-cost analysis of occupational heat-related illness prevention in the United States. Other states have proposed similar regulations or are currently doing so. While there is no federal heat standard, in October 2021 the Occupational Safety and Health Administration published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for Heat Injury and Illness Prevention in Outdoor and Indoor Work Settings. The California example provides a framework for evaluating the benefits and costs of such a regulation. This presentation will discuss elements of the California standardized regulatory impact assessment, economic methodology, and equity impact analysis. Occupational heat-related illnesses and injuries have climbed in recent years and are likely to further increase due to climate change as global temperatures rise and the frequency of extreme weather events increases. Workers of color and those with lower socioeconomic status disproportionately make up the population of workers with higher risk of exposure to extreme heat conditions, which exacerbates existing inequalities. Our study uses a geospatial analysis overlaying temperature projections, employment data, and socioeconomic conditions by county.
    • Application of queuing theory for biosecurity inspections in international shipping......Paul Mwebaze, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Petra Kuhnert, CSIRO Australia; Michael Springborn, University of California-Davis; Dean Paini, CSIRO Australia
    • International shipping is a significant pathway for unintentionally transporting invasive species between countries. Biosecurity inspection of incoming ships for stowaway species is one strategy for managing the risk of invasives. However, the number of ships requiring inspections has increased significantly while the resources of the inspection agencies are limited. We apply queuing theory to develop an efficient biosecurity inspection strategy for high-risk ships arriving in Australia. We analyze how many inspectors to deploy, focusing on the Asian gypsy moth (AGM) as a case study. Our approach offers two advancements to the literature. Firstly, we build on previous work that focuses on minimizing the combined costs of a ship waiting time and inspectors by accounting for invasion-reduction benefits of inspections. Our paper also adds an empirical focus that is currently missing from analyses of the costs and benefits of ship inspections. The results show that a higher number of inspectors than the current practice of one inspector should be deployed to inspect high-risk AGM ships because inspection costs are small compared to the potential waiting costs of low-risk ships and the potential damages of the AGM. The optimal number of inspectors (2-3) from the numerical queuing model is essentially confirmed in the simulation analysis, which additionally accounts for the actual arrival and inspection processes. We show that even small improvements in the inspection process can result in a substantial reduction in costs. For example, adding one more inspector can reduce total costs (inclusive of inspector costs) by 14% relative to a baseline of a single inspector. Benefits of increased inspections accrue both privately (reduced waiting costs for shippers) and publicly (reduced damages from invasion).
    • Benefit-cost analysis of harmful algal bloom risk reduction: A multi-level solutions comparison in a co-benefits approach......Caroline Simard, University of Quebec in Outaouais; Justin Leroux, HEC Montreal; Jérôme Dupras, University of Quebec in Outaouais
    • Blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in water supply systems are a global issue affecting water supplies on every continent except Antarctica. The occurrence of harmful algal blooms in freshwater increases in both frequency and severity (EPA 2013). The protection of water supplies has therefore become increasingly more challenging. To reduce the risk from harmful cyanobacterial blooms in drinking water, many researchers (He et al. 2016, Iberlings et al. 2014) stress the need for a multi-level approach combining prevention, source control, treatment optimization, and monitoring. Predictive cyanobacteria models successfully describe the main drivers of cyanobacterial blooms (Giani et al. 2020), which provide a better understanding of risk. However, regulations and guidelines have been struggling with the multitude of cyanobacterial toxins that might occur: other microcystins or different classes of toxins: hepatotoxins,neurotoxins, and endotoxins. For most of them, toxicological data are insufficient to derive concentration limits (Iberlings et al. 2014). <<Do not use water<< advisories are currently based on cyanobacterial counts and quick ELISA tests for microcystins, which do not detect other common toxins or adsorbed toxins. Decisions based on such data can lead to overly cautious responses (causing unnecessary socioeconomic costs) and conversely fail to identify other sites where toxic blooms could remain unreported. Water authorities need better diagnostic tools and updated guidelines to assess risk and promote proper prevention and treatment strategies. New toxin regulations force water utilities to improve the removal of cyanobacteria and associated toxins. Cyanobacteria can accumulate inside water treatment plants, leading to the production and spread of toxins within plants. Therefore, treatment plant operators need a set of better practices to reduce toxin production, prevent the breakthrough of toxins into drinking water, and manage toxic sludge. We conduct a benefit-cost analysis of diagnostics and treatment strategies and compare them with the socioeconomic costs and benefits of longer-term (e.g., preventive) solutions. The projected social benefits of this analysis include improved drinking water quality and safer recreational water bodies. Economic benefits include increased tourism, reduced costs of water advisories, more efficient monitoring and testing, cost-effective water treatment processes, and risk-based public health guidelines. The costbenefit/cost-effectiveness analysis framework is used to examine the social value of different management strategies of harmful algal blooms. We use results from the research initiative ATRAPP (Algal Blooms, Treatment, Risk Assessment, Prediction and Prevention through Genomics) to constitute our intervention`s scenarios and estimate their efficiency in terms of risk-reduction. Our economic model allows us to calculate net present values for selected scenarios and assess if intervention is preferable to the status quo. We validate if intervention is preferable to status quo and test our results for low and highrisk zones. We also test if the inclusion of co-benefits allows preventive solutions to obtain positive net present values and if the results are sensitive to the inclusion of co-benefits in the CBA framework or not. This could stress the need for market-based instruments such as payments for ecosystem services to support preventive and long-term solutions. We also discuss how the public regulator can use our results contrasting low and high-risk zones to inform water quality guidelines.
    • A Revised Economic Analysis for OSHA’s COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing Emergency Temporary Standard......Andrew Baxter, George Mason University; James Broughel, Mercatus Center at George Mason University
    • In November of 2021, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) issued a COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) requiring that employers with 100 or more employees require their workers to vaccinate or telework. Accompanying the regulation was an economic feasibility analysis, which ascertained whether employers could implement the regulation, given the costs imposed on them. This paper revisits OSHA’s economic analysis and recalculates the regulation’s costs and health impacts to provide a more comprehensive snapshot of the regulation’s effects. Despite the fact that the regulation was eventually overturned by the Supreme Court, and therefore never went into effect, we believe the economic analysis for this regulation offers lessons that can improve OSHA’s economic analysis for regulations in the future. The paper concludes that OSHA’s economic analysis underestimates the regulation’s societal costs and likely overestimates health benefits. Moreover, given the lack of willingness to pay for the rule’s health benefits from the unvaccinated population—which this rule targets—we conclude the regulation likely would have had costs in excess of benefits.
    73. Pilots, Nuclear Accidents, and Disasters [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Amy Sharp, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
    • Anticipated Impacts and Modeling of Nuclear Accidents......AJ Nosek, Nuclear Regulatory Commission
    • Anticipated Impacts and Modeling of Nuclear Accidents AJ Nosek, PhD United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission 11545 Rockville Pike Rockville, MD 20852 abstract The ability to account for a comprehensive set of adverse impacts is important in benefit-cost analysis in regulatory decision-making. There are numerous types of adverse impacts from a nuclear accident, and many are not widely understood. As a result, benefit-cost analyses can easily overlook adverse impacts that are not widely recognized or challenging to measure. Since the omission of any adverse impact undervalues the benefit-cost analyses of nuclear safety, it is important for analysts to be diligent in evaluating different public harms and err on the side of inclusion. As such, this presentation provides an overview of a broad range of consequence categories and adverse impacts that may occur from an atmospheric release of radioactive material resulting in widespread contamination. In addition, this presentation will also discuss the capability of modeling these adverse impacts with MACCS, a code used to assess certain offsite consequences. Key Words: consequence analysis, MACCS, nuclear accidents, nuclear disaster experience, regulatory decision-making
    • Behavioral Economic Consequences of Disasters: A Basis for Inclusion in Benefit-Cost Analysis......Adam Rose, University of Southern California
    • The purpose of this paper is to develop an analytical framework for estimating the behavioral effects of disasters and their economic consequences for disaster losses. The reduction of these losses represents the benefits of pre-disaster mitigation and post-disaster recovery. We provide conceptualizations, definitions, classifications, and a formal welfare analysis of this category of economic consequences. We also examine methods used to measure behavioral reactions to fear for insight into improving their delineation. Because we are interested in a comprehensive assessment of behavioral effects, we also include resilience adjustments and extend our initial partial equilibrium analysis to the general equilibrium level. The analysis is intended to serve as the basis for the legitimate inclusion of behavioral consequences of disasters in benefit-cost analysis.
    • U.S. Air Force Pilot Attrition and Shortage: A Boom-Bust Cycle......Ali Gungor, Federal Aviation Administration
    • U.S. Air Force Pilot Attrition and Shortage: A Boom-Bust Cycle The U.S. Air Force`s pilot attrition and shortage have been following a boom-bust cycle since the end of World War II. As the U.S. economy expanded or contracted throughout the last six decades and air travel continued to increase or decrease following these booms and busts of the economy, the U.S. commercial airlines historically recruited from the highly trained and experienced military pilots of the Air Force. The last economic boom in the U.S. economy started in 2010 after the Great Recession of 2008-2009, followed by a slowdown in hiring of pilots in the first quarter of 2020 when the COVID-19 global pandemic dropped the U.S. domestic and international air travel drastically to 70 percent of its 2019 levels. As experts do not anticipate the U.S. air travel and commercial airlines to return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2024, the U.S. Air Force`s 2019 prediction of 2,000 military pilot shortage is likely to disappear for the next four or more years, and even there may be a surplus of military pilots. The primary reason for this is the significant drop in demand for military pilots from the commercial airlines that have been laying off, furloughing several thousands of their pilots or offering them early retirement or buyout packages since the beginning of the pandemic in early March 2020 until the summer of 2021. Given the significant uncertainty about when and how the U.S economy and commercial airlines would fully recover from their adverse economic circumstances, U.S. Air Force pilots are likely to stay with the service for the next several years. At a minimum, many other military pilots may postpone their decision to separate from the military until the civilian airlines start hiring again during the next economic boom or even some preferring the full retirement with twenty years of service up until their mid-40s instead of separating from the Air Force in their mid-30s. In this presentation, I will discuss the boom-bust cycles of U.S. Air Force pilot shortages and surpluses in rhythm and lockstep with U.S. commercial air carriers` expansions and contractions determined by the overall performance of the U.S. economy over the last seven decades; provide the latest evidence on this symbiotic relationship between two segments of the aviation labor market during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath and describe the potential costs, benefits and distributional effects on key stakeholders including taxpayers funding U.S. Air Force, U.S. commercial airline companies and the American flying public.
  • Daniel Acland, University of California at Berkeley;
  • 74. Infrastructure Investment and Funding [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 5:00 pm-6:30 pm | Room 3

    Chair: Xie Zhoudan, George Washington University
    • Projected Effects of Proposed US Funding for Advanced Energy Technology Development......Daniel Shawhan, Resources for the Future; Kathryne Cleary, Resources for the Future; Christoph Funke, Resources for the Future; Steven Witkin, Resources for the Future
    • This study combines rigorous, novel expert elicitation with advanced power sector simulation modeling to estimate the cost and emission effects of $18 billion of recently authorized additional US government funding for research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) of five advanced clean energy technologies: advanced nuclear, generation from natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, advanced geothermal, diurnal energy storage, and direct-from-air capture of CO2 (DAC). Analysis of the effects of this authorized funding is important because actual appropriations are annual, so the funding actually allocated could be much less or more than the amount authorized. We use detailed, innovative expert elicitation, involving 26 experts, to estimate the effects of this potential additional funding on the costs of these technologies. We then use a detailed power sector model, with all five technologies carefully represented in it, to estimate the resulting emission and electricity cost reductions. The entire analysis, from expert elicitation through simulation modeling, is stochastic. Without any new national clean energy policies other than the funding, the benefit-cost ratio of the funding for three of the five technologies has a projected expected value greater than 1 (in fact, greater than 5), and the benefits would be a mix of electricity bill savings, reduced health damages, and reduced climate damages. With a national clean electricity standard, the benefit-cost ratio of the funding for all five technologies has an expected value above 5, and the benefits would come mainly from electricity bill savings. These estimates omit benefits from uses outside the US power sector. Our results also indicate that the benefits of each $1 reduction in expected levelized cost per MWh grow substantially larger as expected cost falls. This implies that the expected benefits per dollar of additional RD&D funding for each technology could actually grow larger per dollar spent on that technology.
    • Wider Economic Benefits from Infrastructure Investment: Theory, Potential Significance, and Measurement......Don Pickrell, Volpe Center, U.S. Dept. of Transportation; Anna Solow-Collins, Volpe Center, U.S. Dept. of Transportation
    • Wider Economic Benefits from Infrastructure Investment: Theory, Potential Significance, and Measurement Analysts focusing on benefit-cost evaluation of infrastructure investments frequently assert that the conventional producer and user surplus measures of benefits from provision and use of new or expanded infrastructure omit important categories of benefits, and that these should be measured separately and added to the usual measures in order to ensure accurate evaluation of proposed investments. Briefly, such <<wider economic benefits<< can arise where externalities, limited competition, or other market imperfections inhibit benefits from reduced production costs, lower product prices, and increases in consumption of products that rely on public infrastructure for their manufacture and distribution from being fully or accurately reflected in consumer and producer surplus gains measured in markets for the use of infrastructure itself, the yardstick that economic evaluation typically relies on. Although several other nations now provide detailed guidance for measuring and reporting these supplemental benefits, to date they have rarely been considered in benefit-cost analysis of proposed infrastructure investments in the U.S. Focusing on economic evaluation of transportation infrastructure, this presentation will review the economic theory underlying each potential source of wider benefits, identify the types of improvements where each category of wider benefits is potentially significant, and outline the steps and data sources necessary to measure them. The categories of wider benefits it will address include productivity increases from employment agglomeration, price and output effects of increased competition enabled by new infrastructure and improved access, benefits from more intensive development at sites where expanding infrastructure improves access, and reorganization of firms‚`Äô` <<supply chains.<< The presentation will also offer recommendations for how seriously benefit-cost analysts in the U.S. should consider the potential for wider economic benefits, and identify specific types of infrastructure investments where they warrant attention and efforts at measurement.
    • Can privatization of distribution substations improve electricity reliability for non-residential customers? An application to Nepal......Majid Hashemi, Queen's University; Glenn P. Jenkins, Queen's University
    • This paper takes on a novel perspective to the overloading of distribution substations by considering the common-pool characteristics of electric infrastructure capacity. Using firm- and substation-level data from Nepal, the results provide evidence of common-pool resource (CPR) problems across substations‚`Äô` ownership boundaries: firms with captive substations experience fewer and shorter unplanned outages than firms connected to shared substations. Based on these findings, private investments in captive substations emerge as a coping mechanism for firms against unreliable electricity supply. A generalized cost-benefit analysis framework for such investments is developed and used to quantify the benefits to Nepalese non-residential customers.
    • Use of Integrated Cost-Benefit Analysis to Inform the Design of Blended and Innovative Financing Models......Bahman Kashi, Limestone Analytics; Aaron Bruner, Conservation International; Frederic Tremblay, Limestone Analytics; I Made Sanjaya, Conservation International; Anurag Ramachandra, Conservation International; Bara Kalla, Conservation International; Max Wright, Conservation International
    • Many international development finance institutions assess the socio-economic feasibility and the <<bankability<< of projects in an integrated cost-benefit analysis study. This approach expands the conventional cost-benefit analysis framework to report the net impact from alternative perspectives. Similar CBA methods have helped design and finance public-private partnerships. With the growth of blended and innovative financing models, such analysis can expand further and help in designing multi-stakeholder financing solutions to implement projects and policies that are socially justified and, at the same time, financially sustainable. This study discusses the operational steps for developing an integrated cost-benefit model that can assess the overall socio-economic feasibility; report the net financial impact on each stakeholder; identify the financing needs and relevant financing instruments; and quantitatively estimate the risk, optimal financing ratios, and capital requirements. The study also illustrates the application of this integrated approach to CBA for operationalizing elements of West Papua`s decision to become a Sustainable Development Province. Stakeholders are local communities, farmers; oil palm and logging industries; provincial and national governments; and the global community.
    75. Stated preferences studies on VSL in China [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 8:00 pm-9:30 pm | Room 1

    Organizer: Jiakun Zheng, Renmin University of China
    Chair: Jiakun Zheng, Renmin University of China
    • The value of statistical life in China and the benefit transfer: A Meta-analysis based on the empirical literatures......Shiqiu Zhang, Peking University; Yanying Wang, Peking University
    • Value of statistical life (VSL) is crucial for evaluating the health effects due to environmental pollution and other health risks, and it is also a critical parameter to value the benefits from the environmental, transportation, health regulations, and other public policies. Classical literature laid out foundations for VSL and hundreds of empirical studies analyzed the key factors affecting VSL, while their relationships are still not clear, with temporal and spatial inconsistent results. Besides, when transferring VSL from one place to another, the different risk characteristics, population heterogeneity, and other factors are often ignored, resulting in varied results of health benefits, especially in developing countries. This study takes a systematic and quantitative review of the empirical research conducted in China through Meta-analysis. By screening those studies conducted in China, 19 studies on VSL with a total of 225 VSL estimates, published with data from 1998 onwards, were identified. Among all estimates, VSL varies from 1 to 1000 million CNY (0.15 to 156 million USD), with the weighted average value of 263 million CNY (41.1 million USD). Based on the Meta-regression result, this paper provides the recommended value of VSL and value transfer (known as benefit transfer) approach that can be applied in China. In addition, to better serve cost-benefit analysis, this paper studied the income elasticity of VSL in developing countries and further discussed how regional characteristics such as population structure, life expectancy, and urban location, etc., affect VSL.
    • Willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions: experience matters......Jianhua Xu, Peking University
    • In conducting benefit cost analysis for life-saving policies, we often needed to transfer value of astatistical life (VSL) from extant valuation studies to new policy contexts. In doing so, we need to know what factors affect VSL and how. Among all the factors, experience has received scarce attention. This paper explores the influence of experience on VSL with a quasi-experimental design by comparing individual willingness to pay (WTP) for COVID-19 mortality risk reductions in two Chinese cities which differ sharply in their COVID-19 experiences. One city is Wuhan where the COVID-19 outbreak was first reported and unprecedented lockdown was enforced, and the other is Changsha which is comparable with Wuhan in terms of social,economic, and climatic situations but had far less COVID-19 cases and less stringent coping measures. Coarsened exact matching method was used to make the samples of the two cities comparable on key characteristics like gender, age, income, education, profession, health status and vaccination, and Mann-Whitney test and Z-test were used to examine the difference in the means of WTP of the matched samples. The results show that holding other factors equal, the VSL of the respondents in Wuhan is about two times that of the respondents in Changsha. Our findings reveal the importance of experience in influencing VSL and calls for more attention to the effect of experience on VSL. Neglecting the influence of experience on VSL may lead to underestimating the benefits of life-saving policies or the costs of not taking actions.
    • Behavioral determinants on individual preferences for reducing health risks: evidence based on Chinese population......Henrik Andersson, Toulouse School of Economics; James Hammitt, Harvard University; Jiakun Zheng, Renmin University of China
    • Recent theoretical works in behavioral and health economics suggest that regret and loss aversion can influence individuals` willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA) for changes in health risks. Since the estimated WTP and WTA are important for policy evaluation, a better understanding of how individuals form their preferences is of high policy relevance. In this paper, we empirically test the hypothesesthat individuals who are: (1) more sensitive to regret have higher WTP and WTA, and (2) more loss averse have a higher WTA-WTP ratio. An online survey is conducted on a random sample of respondents from the Chinese population combined with tests for regret and loss aversion already used in the literature. Our findings raise questions about how public health policies should be designed and implemented. Our study also contributes to the debate on public-health policies and behavioral economics.
  • James Hammitt, Harvard University;
  • 76. Climate Change Issues in Singapore and the US [Full Panel of Research Presentations]
    Tuesday | 8:00 pm-9:30 pm | Room 2

    Chair: Mark Dickie, University of Central Florida
    • Economic Impact of Transboundary Haze Pollution in 2015 on Singapore......Euston Quah, Nanyang Technological University; Wai Mun Chia, Nanyang Technological University Singapore; Tsiat Siong Tan, Singapore University of Social Sciences
    • This study aims to estimate the economic impact of transboundary haze pollution in 2015 on Singapore using quantitative methods and techniques developed in cost-benefit analysis. The study includes both tangible and intangible costs associated with haze pollution. In the estimation of the tangible costs of haze, the study includes (1) adverse impacts of haze on health, (2) loss in tourism, (3) loss in business as an indirect effect from loss of tourist receipts, (4) productivity loss due to restricted activity days and (5) cost of mitigation and adaptation by government agencies and households. For the estimation of intangible costs, the value is derived from a contingent valuation study conducted in 2018 to estimate Singapore residents` willingness to pay for a pro-environment collaboration project that could effectively stop <<slash and burn<< practices, and hence solve the annual haze pollution issue. The survey was conducted on 793 Singapore citizens and permanent residents aged 20 and above. The total cost of the 2015 haze episode on Singapore which lasted for 2 months is estimated at S$2.57 billion, amounting to 0.63% of the country`s gross domestic product. This economic burden is equivalent to a per capita cost of S$659. Accordingly, the total tangible cost is estimated at S$2.21 billion (0.54% of GDP) while the total intangible cost stands at S$363.58 million (0.09% of GDP).
    • A Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electric Vehicle Policies in Singapore......Nahim Zahur, Queens University; Tilak Doshi, Doshi Consulting
    • Singapore began exploring the option of adopting electric vehicles (EVs) in the late 2000s. In February 2020, Singapore announced the ambitious target of phasing out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles entirely by 2040 with a range of financial and regulatory incentives. The goal of this paper is to present a preliminary cost-benefit analysis of Singapore`s EV policies. For economic efficiency, policy interventions that affect choices of whether to drive an EV or not are only justified if they correct an existing market failure. There are two key environmental externalities to consider. Firstly, pollutant emissions from ICEVs such as emissions of particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen and sulfur, etc., are damaging to human health. Secondly, greenhouse gas emissions from ICEVs contribute to global warming and thereby generate a negative externality. The size of these negative externalities determines the extent to which government intervention is justified. Our preliminary finding is that under reasonable base case conditions, EVs are a highly costly transportation option relative to ICEVs in Singapore, even after accounting for the health damages of fuel emissions from ICEVs. For EVs to break even with ICEVs on the basis of social costs, the required <<social cost of carbon<< (SCC) is an order of magnitude higher than current estimates in the literature. As a high per capita income signatory to the Paris Agreement, the Singapore government is under pressure in international forums to signal the country`s commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. EVs offer a means of reducing emissions from the transport sector. Nevertheless, in a world where government are seldom capable of picking winners, the first-best policy is to tax externalities across all sectors on a level playing field and allow markets to incentivize innovation, whereas Singapore has largely relied on the alternative approach of providing subsidies to electric vehicles.
    • Following the latest Conference of the Parties (COP 26), Brazil pledged to halve deforestation by 2030. Brazilian domestic environmental and climate policies, however, are headed in a different direction. Recent executive actions targeted federal law 12,651, of 2012, which is known as "the new Forest Code," and flexibilized enforcement and penalties for deforestation. For instance, provisional measure n¬∫ 867/2018, which was enacted under former President Temer, amended such a Code to grant amnesty to deforesters; and provisional measure 870/2019, enacted under current President Bolsonaro) transferred from the National Foundation for Indigenous Peoples (Funai, in Portuguese) to the Cabinet of Agriculture the power to delimitate indigenous lands while reducing the scope of Funai's attributions. These are examples of patch work deregulatory executive actions that reduces environmental protection in Brazil and in the Amazon region, specifically. These actions are currently subject to public litigation. This article investigates such deregulatory executive measures based on three different accounts of cost-benefit analysis. First, it evaluates the way such executive actions were enacted, namely, its procedural terms. The article contends that procedural violations of the formal legal requirements contribute to legal uncertainty, which increases litigation and non-uniform applicability of environmental policy. Second, the article assesses the substantive account, namely, the specific costs and benefits of flexibilizing environmental protection, and who were the winners and losers in the short and long terms. It also discusses the exclusion from key stake holders from environmental, including local and indigenous populations. Third, such deregulatory measures are considered from a moral account. Accordingly, the research conducted is timely, and may influence environmental litigation, providing novel arguments against the increasing number of detractors of cost-benefit analysis in Brazil. Similarly, the findings of this research may be relevant for future policy assessments regarding deregulation and its impact on deforestation and overall climate policies in Brazil and beyond. This is particularly important now due to the limited window of opportunity that Brazil (and the world) have in order to implement effective climate policies. From a theoretical perspective, this article addresses contemporary examples of cumulative deregulatory actions enacted disregarding CBA as a methodological tool for maximizing overall well-being. It also advances a trending topic concerning CBA, namely, the incorporation of moral considerations into such analysis. Ultimately, this article concludes that such deregulatory executive measures are not justified by the results of the encompassing cost-benefit analysis developed.
    • Economic Benefits and Costs of Agrivoltaic Systems in the US......Paul Mwebaze, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Madhu Khanna, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaig; Ruiqing Miao, Auburn University; Jordan Macknick, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
    • Climate change is increasing the vulnerabilities of our food, energy and water systems and the importance of building resilience and sustainability in renewable energy and food production. To meet global energy demands with clean, renewable energy such as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, large land areas are needed because of the relatively diffuse nature of solar energy. However, using large pieces of land for solar farms will increase competition for land resources as food production demand and energy demand increase and vie for the limited land resources. In this context, Agrivoltaics (AV), the co-location of PV energy and food production, is increasingly raising interest in the renewable energy and agricultural sectors as a solution to both challenges. While it was a question of either food or solar energy production on farmland in the past, AVs can combine both successfully and achieve greater efficiencies in both activities. Initial experimental research indicates that AVs can increase land-use efficiency, water use efficiency, and PV panel efficiency and make agriculture climate-smart by reducing exposure to extreme heat and precipitation. Despite this potential, few studies have been conducted to analyze the benefits and costs of AV systems. The overall goal of this project is to examine the optimal configuration and design of AVs across various regions in the US and its implications for farm income and risk and market and climate feedbacks on the agricultural and electricity sectors. We also plan to survey farmers to examine the technology, economic and behavioural factors that will influence the adoption of AVs. This presentation reviews and summarises the AV studies to date to better understand their potential and identify knowledge gaps. We develop spatially varying crop budget models to analyze the profitability of AV systems compared to crops only or solar only using existing tools and data for the US. This presentation provides preliminary results and discusses the implications and further work required.

    Index to Participants

    Abelson, Peter: 13
    Acland, Daniel: 14 , 45 , 73
    Adamowicz, Vic: 4 , 8
    Adler, Matthew: 71
    Ahamad, Mazbahul: 16
    Ahn, Jae-Wan: 3 , 29
    Ahtiainen, Heini: 30
    Alderman, Harold: 7
    Amaral, Miguel: 68
    Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin: 8
    Andersson, Henrik: 2 , 38 , 44 , 61 , 75
    Arlota, Carolina: 76
    Ashley, Elizabeth: 67
    Asplund, Disa: 45
    Aurino, Elisabetta: 7
    Austin, Wes: 12
    Baker, Rachel: 27
    Balukas, Jessica: 27
    Banzhaf, Spencer: 6
    Barrientos, Manuel: 4
    Bartuska, Ann: 49
    Bastian, Jacob: 22
    Batabyal, Amit: 47
    Baxter, Andrew: 54 , 72
    Baxter, Jennifer: 1
    Beeson, Morgan: 46
    Behr, Chris: 44
    Bell, Elizabeth: 7
    Bell, Jason: 18
    Belova, Anna: 27
    Belzer, Richard: 67
    Bennear, Lori: 48
    Berck, Peter: 18
    Bershteyn, Boris: 32
    Bijleveld, Frits: 2
    Bishop, Sarah: 5 , 39
    Black, Margaret: 59
    Blomquist, Glenn: 6 , 33 , 35 , 57
    Bloom, David: 47 , 54
    Boehlert, Brent: 1
    Bohmholdt, Andrea: 9
    Bondemark, Anders: 44
    Booth, Pamela: 30
    Borenstein, Severin: 48
    Borja Vega, Christian: 30
    Börjesson, Maria: 23
    Bowen, Derick: 60
    Boyer-Villemaire, Ursule: 20
    Brent, Robert: 9
    Bressler, Danny: 62
    Broughel, James: 54 , 72
    Brown, Zachary: 9
    Browning, Morgan: 12
    Brundell-Freij, Karin: 44
    Bruner, Aaron: 74
    Bryant, Ben: 5 , 37
    Cabral, Marika: 22
    Cadarette, Daniel: 47 , 54
    Cameron, Trudy Ann: 15 , 16 , 18 , 54
    Campos, Nelyda: 4
    Carbajal, Max: 41
    Cardenas, Helena: 64
    Carlin, Patrick: 15
    Carlson, Deven: 34 , 65
    Carnis, Laurent: 2
    Carson, Richard: 8 , 15 , 52 , 54
    Cassel, Kim: 11
    Castillo, Manuel: 23
    Cecot, Caroline: 6 , 14 , 31 , 50
    Cham, Maria Rowena: 5
    Chang, Angela: 25
    Chang, Valerie: 11
    Cheesebrough, Tony: 62
    Cheyney, Christopher: 44
    Chia, Wai Mun: 55 , 76
    Chilton, Susan: 2 , 10 , 20 , 27 , 46
    Chovar, Alejandra: 70
    Chuang, Yih-chyi: 57
    Cleary, Kathryne: 74
    Coglianese, Cary: 48
    Coker, Ayodeji: 29 , 47
    Cole, Jefferson: 12
    Colmer, Jonathan: 43
    Conway, Iain: 23
    Cook, Joseph: 70
    Cordes, Joseph: 67
    Cotton, Christopher: 28
    Coutu, Mathieu: 66
    Cowell, Ophelia: 56
    Creason, Jared: 12
    Cropper, Maureen: 6 , 10
    Dalafave, Rachel: 65
    Daniels, Nicholas: 3
    Daniels, Stijn: 2
    Davies, Caitlin: 19
    De Silva, Lihini: 18
    Delaire, Caroline: 58
    Deshpande, Manasi: 22
    Devlin, Joe: 16
    Diaz, Jose: 7
    Dickie, Mark: 20 , 76
    Dillon-Merrill, Robin: 62
    Dockins, Chris: 46
    Donaldson, Cam: 27
    Donoso, Guillermo: 41 , 70
    Dooling, Bridget: 31
    Dos Santos, Fabio Rodrigues: 69
    Doshi, Tilak: 76
    Dudley, Susan: 32 , 67 , 68
    Duflo, Esther: 63
    Dupras, Jérôme: 72
    Dussaux, Damien: 46
    Duxbury, Darren: 20
    Eber, Michael: 54
    Elliott, Mark: 28
    Evans, Mary: 71
    Farrow, Scott: 55
    Febrizio, Mark: 50
    Fernández, Francisco: 20
    Ferranna, Maddalena: 9 , 47 , 54
    Ferrini, Silvia: 13
    Finnoff, David: 54
    Florio, Massimo: 40 , 45
    Foltyn-Zarychta, Monika: 23
    Frijters, Paul: 26
    Fuente, David: 41 , 64 , 70
    Funke, Christoph: 74
    Furugori, Kai: 66
    Galloway, Emily: 53
    Gámez, Luis: 41
    Gardner, George: 27
    Geddes, Rick: 21 , 57
    Gelli, Aulo: 7
    Gentile, Lauren: 59
    Gil Roig, José María: 17
    Gimenez, Theo: 28
    Glauser, Stephen: 11
    Graham, John: 48
    Greenberg, David: 14
    Griffiths, Charles: 46
    Grilli, Gaetano: 13
    Guignet, Dennis: 30
    Gungor, Ali: 73
    Hahn, Robert: 50
    Hammitt, James: 10 , 27 , 71 , 75
    Hanemann, Michael: 15
    Hanemann, Michael: 8 , 52 , 54 , 70
    Hartley, Faaiqa: 1
    Hartley, Steve: 56
    Hashemi, Majid: 74
    Hay, Nancy: 42
    Heaton, Chris: 69
    Hemel, Daniel: 71
    Hendicott, Kieron: 56
    Hendren, Nathaniel: 22
    Hernandez-Cortes, Danae: 43
    Hesami, Siamand: 69
    Hoffmann, Sandra: 3 , 29 , 46 , 49
    Hole, Arne Risa: 2
    Hole, Joanna: 56
    Holst Volden, Gro: 23
    Hopkins, Emma: 12
    Huber, Joel: 18
    Hurrell, Alex: 9
    Jaime, Marcela: 17
    Jamison, Dean: 25
    Jasiukevičius, Linas: 40
    Jenkins, Glenn P.: 69 , 74
    Jensen, Kirsten: 42 , 69
    Ji, Yongjie: 19
    Jorge-Calderon, José Doramas: 40
    Jowers, Kay: 43
    Juhar, Nuredin: 38
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna: 23
    Jusypenko, Bartosz: 7
    Juvonen, Jaakko: 30
    Kalla, Bara: 74
    Kalt, Joe: 52
    Karoly, Lynn: 24 , 49 , 63
    Kashi, Bahman: 28 , 37 , 60 , 74
    Katzen, Sally: 32
    Kearsley, Aaron: 53
    Keeler, Bonnie: 16
    Kellis, Lucile: 23
    Kenkel, Don: 57 , 65
    Kenkel, Don: 47 , 57
    Ketcham, Jonathan: 43
    Khanna, Madhu: 76
    Khush, Ranjiv: 58
    Kim, Dohyeong: 54
    King, Julian: 9
    Kisiangani, Joyce: 58
    Kniesner, Thomas: 36 , 50
    Köhlin, Gunnar: 8
    Koning, Martin: 2
    Kotchen, Matthew: 67
    Krekel, Christian: 26
    Krutilla, Kerry: 45
    Kuhnert, Petra: 72
    Kuminoff, Nicolai: 27 , 43
    Kuntsi-Reunanen, Eeva: 30
    Lamy, Annabelle: 20
    Lancsar, Emily: 46
    Lane, Sarah: 39
    Lankia, Tuija: 30
    LaPenta, Matt: 28 , 66
    Lapin, Amy: 1
    Large, Maxime: 2
    Larson, Rhett: 52
    Lee, Christine: 1
    Leeson, Adala: 42
    Leiter, Andrea: 46
    Leroux, Justin: 72
    Leung, Joanne: 69
    Levinson, Arik: 67
    Lew, Nellie: 62
    Lewis, Lynne: 30
    Liang, Jeffrey: 5 , 37
    Little, Allan: 42
    Liu, Pengfei: 19
    Lize, Steve: 51
    Long, David: 24
    Louviere, Jordan: 15
    Luna, Marcos: 59
    Luskin, David: 19
    Ma, Lala: 43 , 66
    Maartensz, Sofia: 3
    Maca, Vojtech: 16
    MacKinnon, Jay: 28
    Macknick, Jordan: 76
    MacLennan, Sara: 42
    Madrigal, Roger: 41
    Mamun, Arif: 37
    Mancini, Dominic: 31
    Marasteanu, Julia: 53
    March, Jason: 3
    Marten, Alex: 12
    Martinez, Nathan: 5
    Masatsugu, Lauren: 66
    Mason, Helen: 27
    Masur, Jonathan: 71
    Mathes, Sophie: 43
    McConnell, Sheena: 24
    McDonald, Rebecca: 27
    McFarland, Jim: 12
    McGeary, Kerry Anne: 11
    McHugh, Neil: 27
    McManus, Catherine: 52
    McQueen, R. Brett: 3 , 29
    Mendeloff, John: 48
    Meng, Alice: 56
    Metcalf, Hugh: 27
    Metz, David: 72
    Miao, Ruiqing: 76
    Mignot, Dominique: 2
    Miller, Benjamin: 51
    Miller, Benjamin: 72
    Mitchell-Nelson, Joe: 15
    Modicamore, Dominic: 51
    Mogollon Ñañez, Raymundo Jesús Mogollon: 17
    Moore, Rob: 29 , 34
    Morris, Jennifer: 1
    Moscoso, Alex: 62
    Movsesyan, Gabriel: 62
    Mukhopadhaya, Pundarik: 69
    Muller, Nicholas: 66
    Mussio, Irene: 20
    Mwebaze, Paul: 72 , 76
    Nardinelli, Clark: 31 , 34
    Nelson, Nanette: 9
    Neumann, James: 59
    Newbold, Steve: 54
    Ni, Jincheng: 40
    Nielsen, Jytte: 20 , 46
    Nielsen, Jytte Seested: 27
    Nnaji, Amaka: 61
    Nordlof, Peo: 23
    Nordstrom, Ardyn: 28
    Norheim, Ole: 25
    Nosek, AJ: 73
    Nurmi, Väinö: 46
    Odeck, James: 23
    Olubamiro, Owotomiwa C.: 69
    Opatrný, Matěj: 16 , 44
    Paini, Dean: 72
    Paltsev, Sergey: 1
    Pancotti, Chiara: 40
    Parker, David: 51
    Peckham, Janet: 53
    Peletz, Rachel: 58
    Pender, John: 49
    Perez, Daniel: 67
    Pickrell, Don: 13 , 44 , 74
    Ponce, Roberto D.: 20
    Pouta, Eija: 30
    Prier, Shannon: 72
    Proville, Jeremy: 66
    Quah, Euston: 21 , 55 , 76
    Radin, Mark: 58
    Rahman, Sabeel: 68
    Ramachandra, Anurag: 74
    Ray, Paul: 32
    Resch, Stephen: 46
    Revesz, Richard: 14 , 32
    Reynolds, Arthur: 28
    Rheinberger, Christoph: 46
    Rhodes, Ray: 66
    Robinson, Lisa: 10 , 46 , 48 , 54
    Roder, Anne: 24 , 28
    Roher, Ben: 46
    Roman, Henry: 10
    Rosch, Stephanie: 49
    Rose, Adam: 73
    Rowell, Arden: 71
    Roy, Ananya: 66
    Sagger, Harman: 42
    Sandell, Lauren: 3
    Sanjaya, I Made: 74
    Sato, Ryoko: 46
    Ščasný, Milan: 16 , 44 , 65
    Schaafsma, Marije: 13
    Schoeters, Annelies: 2
    Schou, Jesper: 30
    Schreiber, Andrew: 12
    Schubert, Kristen: 60
    Schulman, Andrew: 12
    Sears, Molly: 18
    Shapiro, Stuart: 31
    Sharp, Amy: 55 , 73
    Shawhan, Daniel: 74
    Sheahan, Megan: 3 , 59
    Shin, Hanna: 54
    Simard, Caroline: 20 , 72
    Simon, Kosali: 15
    Simon, Nathalie: 46
    Sinha, Saumitra: 64
    Smith, Conal: 19
    Smith, Eric: 12
    Smith, Robert: 58
    Sobieski, Cindy: 39
    Söderbom, Måns: 38
    Solow-Collins, Anna: 74
    Spalt, Nicholas: 12
    Spiller, Elisheba: 66
    Springborn, Michael: 72
    Sprung-Keyser, Ben: 22
    Stanford, Garrett: 16
    Stanley, Laura: 72
    Stanslaus Ntiyakunze, Matilda: 38
    Stead, Iven: 42 , 44
    Steinmeyer, Mark: 11
    Stranlund, John: 17
    Strzepek, Kenneth: 1
    Suhr Pierce, Julie: 14
    Sullivan, Ryan: 15 , 50
    Sussman, Fran: 34
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik: 2
    Tan, Tammy: 12
    Tan, Tsiat Siong: 55 , 76
    Tapsuwan, Sorada: 56
    Taylor, Laura: 61
    Taylor, Rebecca: 18
    Temple, Judy: 7 , 28
    Thomas, Vinod: 21 , 57
    Thornton, Craig: 11 , 24 , 63
    Thunstrom, Linda: 15
    Timmins, Christopher: 43
    Toma, Mattie: 7
    Trachtman, Carly: 18
    Treich, Nicolas: 13
    Tremblay, Frederic: 74
    Trimmer, John: 58
    Trnka, Daniel: 68
    Tsui, Flora: 29
    Turkson, Festus: 7
    Turner, Kerry: 13
    Twumasi Baffour, Priscilla: 7
    Uribe Poblete, Adolfo: 17
    Urmeew, Raschid: 2
    van der Horst, Martijn: 2
    Vásquez-Lavín, Felipe: 4 , 17 , 20 , 41 , 70
    Verguet, Stephane: 25
    Villas-Boas, Sofia: 18
    Viscusi, W. Kip: 10 , 18 , 50
    Voorheis, John: 43
    Wallace, Lindsay: 28
    Walsh, Patrick: 30
    Walter, Elaine: 3 , 29
    Wan, Xibo: 19
    Wang, Yanying: 75
    Washington, Layvon: 67
    Watkins, David: 25
    Watson, Kenneth: 45
    Waxman, Elaine: 28 , 49
    Weimer, David: 67
    Welde, Morten: 23
    Wesley, Allison: 60
    Wheeler, Will: 12
    White, Alice: 3 , 29
    Whitehead, John: 4 , 19 , 66
    Whittington, Dale: 8 , 15 , 41 , 52 , 54 , 58 , 64 , 70
    Wiener, Jonathan: 31
    Wijnen, Wim: 2
    Willak, Witold: 40
    Williams, Brennan: 43
    Williams, Coralie: 56
    Wing, Coady: 15
    Witkin, Steven: 74
    Wolff, Carolyn: 53
    Wolverton, Ann: 12
    Wong, Brad: 7 , 58
    Wright, Max: 74
    Xiangying, Shi: 61
    Xu, Jianhua: 75
    Xu, Jintao: 61
    Yeatts-Lonske, Dashiell: 12
    Yi, Samantha: 14
    Yirdaw, Hailegebriel: 38
    Zahur, Nahim: 76
    Zandniapour, Lily: 51
    Zerbe, Richard: 55
    Zhang, Shan: 15 , 18
    Zhang, Shiqiu: 75
    Zhang, Wendong: 19
    Zhao, Jane: 64
    Zheng, Jiakun: 75
    Zhoudan, Xie: 74
    Zverinova, Iva: 16 , 65